Prairie and Arctic Storm Prediction Centre Pat Mc

Prairie and Arctic Storm Prediction Centre Pat Mc. Carthy & Steve Knott Program Supervisors

PASPC Background • Storm Prediction Centre split over two locations (Winnipeg/Edmonton) • 24/7 Operations • Focus on HIW forecasting

• Largest area of responsibility in the world • Largest number of products in the world: – ~140 forecast regions – Over 800 warning regions – Large marine responsibility • 9 Doppler radars

HIW experience • • • Over 40 tornadoes per year Most severe thunderstorms Most blizzards in Canada Most extreme windchill events 1 st in Canada to provide dedicated 24/7 severe weather forecaster coverage • During day, 4 forecasters available for severe weather forecasting • All staff are trained to meet a high level of severe weather expertise

Scientific interests • BL processes! – Appears to play an important role for throughout the year – Severe convection seems related to evapotranspiration and other local effects (in addition to dominant advective processes) – Lack of data (BL and Upper air) makes it difficult to understand this impact – Frustrating forecasters – Hinders HIW forecasting

STABLE • Originated STABLE concept in 1999 • To address: – – Better understand BL processes Their impact on storm initiation Their impact on storm evolution Develop conceptual models to “fill in the blanks” in the data – Calgary - Red Deer corridor seemed the most affected and was deemed to be a great place to study – Information to be applied to remainder of the Prairies and beyond – mesoscale modeling?

PASPC Involvement in UNSTABLE • 4 areas: – Forecast support – Science support – Pre-project logistics – Science transfer to SPCs/developers

Forecast support • Provide daily forecasts • Provide daily consultation • Forecasters available 24/7 forecast support from SPC • Forecasters on-site?

Science Support • SPC research targeted to UNSTABLE goals • Staff available to participate in research activities (Before, during and after project) • Possibly available to assist field work activities

Pre-project Support • Available for summer 2007 to test forecast logistics • Available to support RSD activities related to UNSTABLE for 2007/2008 • Available to fill in behind RSD to free UNSTABLE scientists

Science Transfer • Co-author research papers • Develop case studies • Present findings at conferences/workshops • Establish training for staff • Work with developers to incorporate lessons, ideas, etc. (e. g. mesoscale modeling, Nin. Jo, etc. )

Preliminary Milestones • Spring 2007: identify PASPC participants to work on UNSTABLE science objectives (in collaboration with the Labs and universities) • Summer 2007 – RSD tests with HAL to understand requirements for 2008 (mini UNSTABLE? ) • Summer 2007 – Spring 2008: work on pre-experiment science • Spring 2008 – training for staff/students participating in filed work. • Spring 2008 – training for RSD forecasters on field project objectives, requirements and support techniques/procedures • Spring 2008 – training for RSD forecasters on any unique tools used for the desk • June 2008 – run RSD tests • July 2008 – Deploy staff to the field and to the RSD • August 2008 and beyond – continue science and prepare papers • Fall 2008 – provide Project summary report on PASPC’s participation

Questions?