PRA Risk register summary Ali Hemmati Risk Manager

PRA – Risk register summary Ali Hemmati Risk Manager

New Risks § One new risk to consider a reworking one cold mass and one cryostat with probability of 25% is added § One opportunity not to do an additional cold mass rework with Probability of 10% is added 2

Retired/closed § Retired - RT-302 -4 -05 -001 Related to cryoassembly prototype § Retired - RT-302 -4 -04 -009 (switch to the rotating shaft concept, which is not new any longer) 3

Schedule Impact § At 90% confidence level the project’s scheduled finished date is May 2027, which provides 23 months of schedule contingency for the project at CD-4. § T 0 CD-4 milestone is March 2028. The schedule contingency compared to this milestone is now 10 months. At CD-2 review, the schedule contingency compared to T 0 CD-4 Milestone was 15 months § 4

Cost Impact Estimate Uncertainty: $26, 313 total Risk Cost Contingency is $20, 153 k + $7, 126 k = $27. 3 mil TPC: $242. 5 M EAC: $181. 3 M TPC-EAC = $61. 2 M March Risk Board Meeting CD 2: total Risk Cost Contingency is $19, 978 k + $9, 098 k = $29. 1 mil Contingency $K Estimate Uncertainty $26, 313 Risk Contingency at 90% CL $29, 100 Unknown-Unknowns $5, 787 Total $61, 200 Contingency $K Estimate Uncertainty $26, 313 Risk Contingency at 90% CL $27, 300 Unknown-Unknowns $7, 587 Total $61, 200 5

Reasons for decline in total cost § Removed risk - RT-302 -4 -05 -001 § Monthly burn rate is less ~$100 k x 23 6

Cryo-assembly delivery date CL Cryo-assemblies Late Delivery Date LQXFA/B 01 LQXFA/B 02 LQXFA/B 03 LQXFA/B 04 LQXFA/B 05 LQXFA/B 06 LQXFA/B 07 LQXFA/B 08 LQXFA/B 09 LQXFA/B 10 March-22 July-22 March-23 July-23 January-24 May-24 September-24 November-24 April-25 September-25 CL CL (CD-2) (Tooling delay) 0% 75% 0% 70% 0% 80% 15% 90% 40% 75% 55% 85% 50% 85% 25% 65% 35% 70% 7

Proposed Late Delivery Dates Cryo-assemblies LQXFA/B 01 LQXFA/B 02 LQXFA/B 03 LQXFA/B 04 LQXFA/B 05 LQXFA/B 06 LQXFA/B 07 LQXFA/B 08 LQXFA/B 09 LQXFA/B 10 Proposed Late Delivery Date at Delivery Date at 90% CL at 80% CL 70% CL Nov-22 Oct-22 Aug-22 Feb-23 Jan-23 Oct-22 Oct-23 Sep-23 Jul-23 Jan-24 Dec-23 Oct-23 Aug-24 Jun-24 May-24 Oct-24 Aug-24 Jul-24 Jan-25 Nov-24 Oct-24 Apr-25 Mar-25 Jan-25 Apr-26 Jan-26 Nov-25 Aug-26 Months Delay compare to P 6 date 90% CL 5 4 4 5 9 8 9 10 17 17 May-26 Mar-26 Months Delay compare to P 6 date compare to P 6 80% CL date 70% CL 4 3 3 4 7 6 7 9 14 14 1 0 1 2 6 5 6 7 12 12 8

2 additional pre-series magnets fail § At 90% confidence level the project’s scheduled finished date is June 2027, which provides 24 months of schedule contingency for the project at CD-4. § T 0 CD-4 milestone is March 2028. The schedule contingency compared to this milestone is now 9 months. 9

Cost Impact total Risk Cost Contingency is $26, 840 k + 24 x $310 k = $34. 3 mil Contingency Estimate Uncertainty: $26, 313 TPC: $242. 5 M EAC: $181. 3 M TPC-EAC = $61. 2 M $K Estimate Uncertainty $26, 313 Risk Contingency at 90% CL $34, 280 Unknown-Unknowns $607 Total $61, 200 10