Power Transition Theory A F K Organski 1923

「權力轉移」理論 （Power Transition Theory） 奧根斯基 A. F. K. Organski (1923 ~1998) 權力不對等帶來和平， 權力對等帶來戰爭， 戰爭在兩方權力接近均等時最可能 A. F. K. Organski, World Politics (New York: Knopf, 1958 ) A. F. K. Organski & Jacek Kugler, War Ledger (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1980

蘇聯解體，冷戰結束…… Collapse of USSR, End of Cold War http: //web. acsalaska. net/~benmuse/blog/images/Russia. jpg http: //upload. wikimedia. org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/d 0/USSR_Republics_Numbered_Alphabetically. png/550 px-USSR_Republics_Numbered_Alphabetically. png

誰來抗衡美國? Balancing Against the U. S. : WHO?

我的理論只能告 訴你，權力平衡 一定會形成，但 不能告訴你會在 何時形成。 國際政治理論 Theory of International Politics G. John Ikenberry ed. , American Unrivaled: The Future of the Balance of Power, Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 2002.

Soft Balancing! 軟平衡 http: //patchpiece. files. wordpress. com/2009/09/peace-2009_20090722_05. jpg http: //www. jyenet. cn/new/Upload. Files_new/200704/20074248587427. jpg No Balancing! T. V. Paul, “Soft Balancing in the Age of U. S. Primacy, ” International Security, Vol. 30, No. 1 (Summer 2005), pp. 46– 71 http: //big 5. fmprc. gov. cn/gate/big 5/www. mfa. gov. cn/chn/pds/ziliao/zt/dnzt/wjbzl 2009 sjjjlt/W 020090131424695555487. jpg http: //images. wangchao. net. cn/images/upload/images/military/1174965752508. jpg

http: //www. armscontrolcenter. org/policy/securityspending/articles/us_vs_world. gif http: //www. whatmattersweblog. com/wp-content/uploads/2009/03/share-of-world-gdp-by-country. jpg

「霸權戰爭」理論 （Hegemonic War Theory ） 基爾平 Robert Gilpin (1930 ~) 新興強權挑戰既有霸權 導致全面的霸權戰爭的結果決定新的霸權 ~Robert Gilpin, War and Change in World Politics (New York: Cambridge. University Press, 1981)

http: //www. artexpertswebsite. com/pages/artists_a-k/birch/Birch_Naval. Engagement. jpg http: //www. generationaldynamics. com/ww 2010/wardead. gif http: //www. sonofthesouth. net/texas/maps/la-salle-colony-map-600. jpg

資本主義霸權 世界體系分析 華勒斯坦 Immanuel Wallerstein(1930~) 國家的經濟效率決定了其霸權地位， 霸權的興衰與世界景氣的循環相聯繫。 過去的五百年間，先是荷蘭，然後是英國，之後則是 美國先後成為世界的霸權，主導世界的政治經濟秩序。 Immanuel Wallerstein, The Modern World-system: I Capitalist Agriculture and the Origins of the European World-economy in the Sixteenth Century (New York: Academic Press, 1974) Immanuel Wallerstein, The Modern World-system: II Mercantilism and the Consolidation of the European World-economy, 1600 -1750 (New York: Academic Press, 1980) Immanuel Wallerstein, The Modern World-system: III The Second Era of Great Expansion of the Capitalist World-economy, 1730 -1840 s (New York: Academic Press, 1989)

經濟效率 Economy Efficiency ~1930 ~1800 ~1990 ~1900 ~1960

霸權穩定理論 （Hegemonic Stability Theory） 克蘭斯納 Stephen D. Krasner (1942~ 金德柏格 Charles P. Kindleberger (1910 ~2003) 霸權設定主導世界的政治經濟秩序 導致體系穩定 世界經濟要穩定，需要穩定者，一個穩定者 “For the world economy to be stabilized, there has to be a stabilizer, one stabilizer”. Charles P. Kindleberger, The World in Depression, 1929 -1939 ( London: Allen Lane, The Penguin Press, 1973).

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霸權的資格與實證： 這樣也算霸權？ Is It Hegemon? http: //www. teamsputnik. co. uk/blog/content/binary/gerard%202 -02 a 4. jpg

極盛時期的羅馬帝國 http: //histoireenprimaire. free. fr/images/islam_empire_grand. jpeg http: //wpcontent. answers. com/wikipedia/commons/thumb/1/14/Map-alexander-empire. png/300 px-Map-alexander-empire. png

http: //4. bp. blogspot. com/_a. M 97 X 7 I_RPE/SMll. Munmyv. I/AAAAAIM/Abto 9 ojn. JQg/s 400/Vienna_Battle_1683. jpg http: //www. worldcoincatalog. com/AC/C 1/China/Ancient. China. jpg

漢、唐、明、清的霸權… http: //cathay. ce. cn/person/200712/04/W 020071204402811897536. jpg http: //world. people. com. cn/mediafile/200602/17/F 200602171407166469154623. jpg 如何形成？來自權力平衡的失效… http: //www. qianlongtang. com/journey/Upload. Files_2634/20071121124518869. jpg

秦的擴張沒有被有效地制衡… http: //space. tv. cctv. com/image/20090508/IMAG 1241771927163152. jpg http: //www. sx. chinanews. com. cn/2008 -01 -16/1/_1200460313_6. jpg http: //i 1. ce. cn/cathay/history/200909/03/W 020090903334650718636. jpg

強權的興衰 甘迺迪 Paul M. Kennedy 1945~ 經濟發展速度的差距經年累月的累積之下 經濟實力便會出現巨大的落差 而各國經濟實力的消長牽動著其地位升降 經濟力量預告新強權國家的崛起 ~Paul Kennedy, The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers: Economic Change and Military Conflict from 1500 to 2000 (New York: Random House, 1987)

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霸權過度擴張… Over-expanded… http: //www. ers. usda. gov/briefing/baseline/gallery 2002/US_World. GDP. gif http: //www. psywarrior. com/Bush. Gulf. War. jpg http: //upload. wikimedia. org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/d 3/Bill_Clinton. jpg/220 px-Bill_Clinton. jpg http: //www. econedlink. org/lessons/images_lessons/749_Unemployment_figure 11. gif

嚮往「美式生活」… http: //my 1510. cn/files/my 1510_8/0308110101. jpg http: //www. visitingdc. com/images/hollywood-sign-address. jpg http: //web. mit. edu/zengli/www/photos/Harvard-logo. jpg

滿清的統治…恩威並用 http: //cn. yimg. com/ncp/9_731139372. jpg http: //www. stnn. cc: 82/arts/200906/W 020090601610749944819. jpg http: //upload. wikimedia. org/wikipedia/commons/c/ca/Qing_Dynasty_1820. png

蒙古的統治…絕對武力 http: //cimg 2. 163. com/cnews/2007/9/12/20070912111001065 c 4. jpg http: //blog. unalis. com. tw/wp-content/gallery/golden_horde/ghart_01. gif http: //www. taiwandna. com/Mongolian. Empire. History. jpg

美國自毀長城…… http: //www. almusawwir. org/Liberty. jpg 一意孤行 http: //russmo. com/05_10_12 American. Democracy. gif

軟權力與霸權：一些思索 Soft Power and Hegemony: Think about It • 記憶的延續 Memories • 產生合法性 Legitimacy • 霸權的重生 Renewed

軟權力與霸權：一些思索 Soft Power and Hegemony: Think about It • 結構使然？ Structural Incentives? • 政策選擇？ Policy Choice? 是否是太一相情願…?

重點是滿意程度…… ■ 興起的挑戰者如果滿意現狀， 即使國力逼近衛冕者也不會發動戰爭。 ■ 衛冕者如果滿意現狀， 即使國力被興起的挑戰者超越也不會發動戰爭。 坦門 Ronald L. Tammen 庫格勒 Jacek Kugler 蘭姆克 Douglas Lemke 阿薩拉巴提 Carole Alsharabati 艾菲 Brian Efird 奧根斯基 Power Transitions: Strategies for the 21 st Century A. F. K. Organski (New York and London: Chatham House Publishers, 2000).

改良權力轉移理論 重點是誰先動手…… Dynamic Differential Theory 柯普蘭 Dale C. Copeland 1937~ 主動發動戰爭的， 不是興起中的挑戰者， 而是現存的衛冕者， 主要大戰都是預防性戰爭 Dale C. Copeland, The Origins of Major War (New York: Cornell University Press, 2000)

誰先動手？ ？ 但怎麼都沒有發生呢… http: //www. illegal-fishing. info/images/maps/east_asia. png