POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND CLIMATE VARIABILITY

POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND CLIMATE VARIABILITY ON AGRICULTURE, RANGELANDS, FORESTRY AND FISHERIES IN EUROPE MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION STRATEGIES Emmanuel Cloppet Météo-France 21 – 23 February 2005 Auckland (NZ) Implementation/coordination team of the CAGM OPAG 3 on climate change/variability and natural disasters in agriculture

Methodology In order to carry out this synthesis was used: • A questionnaire addressed to all principal delegates of RA VI members • Personal knowledge • Litterature

Mitigation strategies The main mitigation option in agriculture seems to consist in the diminishing of gaseous emissions (CO 2, CH 4, N 2 O) from fields and cowsheds. An increase of carbon sequestration may be expected after land use change towards a greater share of permanent grasslands.

Diminishing of the methane emissions • Methane emissions by biological fermentation in stock-breading can be diminished by increasing the stock-breading production • Methane emissions can be diminished through effective utilisation of solid and liquid manure • Methane emissions under rice cultivation can be decreased

Decreasing the carbon emissions containing gas and retaining the soil carbon Soil carbon can be retained by : • burning termination of stubble-fields and plant remainders, • introduction of methods for keeping and improving soil fertility under decreasing carbon dioxide emissions • application of a system against soil water erosion, especially against irrigation erosion.

Improving mineral fertilization Mineral fertilization can be improved by : • The use of nitrogen fertilisers, especially urea, in a form, time schedules and qualities consistent with the soil profiles. • The use of nitrogen mineral fertilisers can be combined with manure in order to decrease N-gas.

Adaptation strategies • Increasing numbers of studies have investigated the effectiveness of agronomic adaptation strategies in coping with climate-induced yield losses and gains since the SAR. • On one hand, the adaptation strategies being modeled are limited to a small subset of a much larger universe of possibilities, which may underestimate adaptive capacity. • On the other hand, the adaptations tend to be implemented unrealistically, as though farmers are perfectly clairvoyant about evolving climate changes, which may inflate their effectiveness (Schneider et al. , 2000).

Adaptation strategies New zoning of the agroclimatic resources and agricultural crops : • Expanding areas of the most important agricultural crops over new regions characterized by improved thermal and moisture conditions, • Utilization of a variety of cultivars and hybrids • Cultivation of new agricultural crops grown with Mediterranean origin.

Adaptation strategies • New tuning of the crop calendar and new timing of treatment • Introduction of new cultivars and hybrids adapted to climate change (introduction of droughtresistant varieties, introduction of new cultivars and hybrids to grow and photosynthesis under an increased concentration of carbon dioxide, selective breeding from crops adapted to increase the sink capacity for extra carbohydrates)

Adaptation strategies • Increasing the irrigation effectiveness • Increasing water resources • Adaptation of phytosanitary measures

Adaptive options for livestock production • Animals and livestock enterprises are highly adaptable. • Livestock can be helped by suitable management. • Stocking densities can be reduced and ventilation systems improved. • More rigorous controls on carcass processing may be required. The general lack of simulations of livestock adaptation to climate change is problematic