Populism in Peru From APRA to Ollanta Humala

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Populism in Peru: From APRA to Ollanta Humala Prepared for the WWICS conference “Populism

Populism in Peru: From APRA to Ollanta Humala Prepared for the WWICS conference “Populism of the Twenty-First Century”

Populism in Peru § Not only recurrent but almost constant § Why? 1) Peru’s

Populism in Peru § Not only recurrent but almost constant § Why? 1) Peru’s deep social and economic divides § Why? 2) Perceptions that these divides were not bridged by liberal-democratic governments § Why? 3) Especially after the Velasco government, perceptions that the military was more concerned about national integration than political parties were

“Classical” populism: Haya de la Torre’s APRA, 1920 s 1960 s § Posited antagonism

“Classical” populism: Haya de la Torre’s APRA, 1920 s 1960 s § Posited antagonism between imperialism and oppressed peoples § Haya was charismatic, but also built the highly disciplined APRA party § Haya’s commitment to liberal-democratic principles was dubious, in part because APRA was proscribed in various ways from “liberal democracy” in Peru 1931 -1960 s

APRA § Conditions for emergence in the 1920 s: Export-led growth and expansion of

APRA § Conditions for emergence in the 1920 s: Export-led growth and expansion of coastal haciendas and foreign companies in Peru, 1895 -1930 § Social base: Workers on the sugar haciendas on Peru’s north coast

Military Populism: The Velasco Government, 19681975 § Posited antagonism between the oligarchy and other

Military Populism: The Velasco Government, 19681975 § Posited antagonism between the oligarchy and other Peruvians § Velasco belittled political parties and favored a “fully participatory social democracy” § Velasco was not charismatic

The Velasco Government § Conditions for its emergence: Severe social and economic inequalities in

The Velasco Government § Conditions for its emergence: Severe social and economic inequalities in Peru, which had not been significantly ameliorated under the liberal-democratic Belaúnde government (1963 -1968) § Social base: Did not achieve a social base

“Neo-populism: ” The Government of Alberto Fujimori, 1990 -2000 § Posited antagonism between Peru’s

“Neo-populism: ” The Government of Alberto Fujimori, 1990 -2000 § Posited antagonism between Peru’s “traditional political class” and Peruvians § Belittled political parties and governed with spymaster Vladimiro Montesinos and military commander General Hermoza in a “troika” 1991 -1998 § An image of Fujimori was made as an austere, dedicated workaholic

The Fujimori Government, 1990 -2000 § Conditions for emergence: The perceived failures of the

The Fujimori Government, 1990 -2000 § Conditions for emergence: The perceived failures of the 1980 -1990 liberal-democratic governments (Belaúnde 1980 -1985, Alan García 1985 -1990) § Social base: Elites who benefited from freemarket policies; many Peruvians, especially in the highlands, who benefited from resources from privatization and the decimation of the Shining Path

The Rise of Ollanta Humala, ~2006§ Posited antagonism between “the traditional political class” and

The Rise of Ollanta Humala, ~2006§ Posited antagonism between “the traditional political class” and “the people; ” between transnational corporations and “the people; ” and between Chile and Peru. § A lieutenant colonel, Humala’s first key base was the military. He appeared to attempt a coup against Fujimori in 2000 and to endorse his brother’s seizure of a police headquarters in 2005; in 2006, Humala’s political party (the Peruvian Nationalist Party) was inchoate.

Humala’s background and ideology § His family’s militaristic, nationalistic, racist ideology was the “Ethnic-Cáceres

Humala’s background and ideology § His family’s militaristic, nationalistic, racist ideology was the “Ethnic-Cáceres Movement, ” named after the general who led Peruvian highlanders against Chilean invaders during the War of the Pacific (1879 -1883) § Humala’s own views about democracy were ambiguous at best. He did not hesitate either to break rules of the game (i. e. , the May 21, 2006 presidential debate) or to threaten to break them. He did not elaborate upon his Chávez-style proposals for “re-founding Peru. ”

Humala’s background and ideology, con’t § Although Humala was from Peru’s uppermiddle class and

Humala’s background and ideology, con’t § Although Humala was from Peru’s uppermiddle class and was raised in Lima, he played on his mixed ethnicity and wed themes of ethnicity and nationalism. § On economic issues, Humala’s positions were conventionally leftist.

2006 Elections, 1 st Round Unión por el Peru (Ollanta Humala) 30. 6% APRA

2006 Elections, 1 st Round Unión por el Peru (Ollanta Humala) 30. 6% APRA (Alan García) 24. 3% Unidad Nacional (Lourdes Flores) 23. 8% Alianza por el Futuro (Martha Chavez) 7. 4% Frente de Centro (Valentín Paniagua) 5. 7% Other (15 additional presidential candidates) 8. 0%

Support for Humala § Conditions: 1) Perception that the Toledo and García governments (2001

Support for Humala § Conditions: 1) Perception that the Toledo and García governments (2001 -2006 and 20062011) were not doing enough to bridge Peru’s divides and that their campaign promises were broken § Conditions: 2) Perception that the Toledo government was “frivolous” and that corruption was severe in both governments § Support base: Peru’s southern highlands

Growth was strong for seven consecutive years % change in GDP (source: IMF) 2002

Growth was strong for seven consecutive years % change in GDP (source: IMF) 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Latin America 1. 1 3. 2 5. 3 6. 1 5. 9 4. 3 Peru 5. 0 4. 0 5. 0 6. 8 7. 7 8. 9 9. 8

APROBACIÓN DE GOBIERNO, 2007 P. ¿Usted aprueba o desaprueba la gestión del gobierno encabezada

APROBACIÓN DE GOBIERNO, 2007 P. ¿Usted aprueba o desaprueba la gestión del gobierno encabezada por el presidente (Nombre)? Aquí sólo ‘Aprueba’ Fuente: Latinobarómetro 2007

LA DISTRIBUCIÓN DE LA RIQUEZA ES JUSTA, 2007 P. ¿Cuán justa cree Ud. que

LA DISTRIBUCIÓN DE LA RIQUEZA ES JUSTA, 2007 P. ¿Cuán justa cree Ud. que es la distribución del ingreso en (país)? *Aquí solo ‘Muy justa’ y ‘Justa’ Fuente: Latinobarómetro 2007

EL SALARIO NO LES ALCANZA, 2007 *Aquí sólo ‘No les alcanza tienen dificultades’ más

EL SALARIO NO LES ALCANZA, 2007 *Aquí sólo ‘No les alcanza tienen dificultades’ más ‘No les alcanza tienen grandes dificultades’ Fuente: Latinobarómetro 2007

Likely candidates in the 2011 Elections § § § Keiko Fujimori Ollanta Humala Luis

Likely candidates in the 2011 Elections § § § Keiko Fujimori Ollanta Humala Luis Castañeda Lossio Alejandro Toledo Marco Arana

Conclusion Challenges for liberal democracy in Peru: 1) What are the benchmarks for bridging

Conclusion Challenges for liberal democracy in Peru: 1) What are the benchmarks for bridging social divides? 2) Campaign promises and political records 3) Recruitment of leaders by political parties