Population Theories Theory of Demographic Transition n Demographic

Population Theories

Theory of Demographic Transition n Demographic Transition-The phenomenon of population changes in a country over time

Stage 1 Pre-Transition n n High, stable birth rate High, fluctuating death rate No natural increase Rural/Agricultural society No countries in the world are at this stage

Stage 2 -Early Transition n n High birth rate Falling death rate-“Germ Theory of Disease Control” Large natural increase Rural/Agricultural society

Stage 3 -Late Transition n n Falling birth rate (birth control) Low death rate Decreasing natural increase Urban/Manufacturing society

Stage 4 -Post Transition n n Low birth rate Low death rate No natural increase Urban/Service sector based society

Stage 5? ? Post-Post Transition? Death rate>Birth rate= Natural Decrease n

Pessimistic Views. Thomas Malthus (1766 -1834) n n n Political economist who recorded concerns about changes occurring in Europe in the early nineteenth century -Europe at the time was entering a period of rapid industrialization, but also very rapid population growth. -According to Malthus, the population appeared to be growing in a geometric sequence (1, 2, 4, 8, 16…)- too quickly for the food supply which could only increase arithmetically (1, 2, 3, 4…). He felt that population, if uncontrolled, would be "checked" by certain things: "Positive" Checks 1. Disease-"The Black Death" 2. War-Napoleon, Crusades. . . 3. Famine-India "Negative" Checks -predicted that mankind would consciously prevent births through: 1. Choice 2. Delayed marriage

n n n n Present Day "Positive" Checks 1. Aids, Ebola 2. Africa’s situation (Life expectancy-38 years) Malthus could never have predicted: -Global access to medicine, water, food -Widespread birth control -Global awareness -Fear of nuclear destruction

William Catton n Introduced the concept of the earth’s carrying capacity He suggests that the earth has been exceeding its carrying capacity for many years; this has been possible because we have been using up nonrenewable resources that future generations will need This is known as a “phantom carrying capacity”-while allowing a higher population, is ultimately nonsustainable and the economic and ecological systems will collapse

Optimistic Views n n Cornucopians-have faith in the human ability to find technological innovations that will increase the earth’s carrying capacity D. J. Bogue-Theory of Demographic Regulation-over an extended period of time, a society naturally limits population. The population will grow only in response to the Earth’s ability to support it.

Population Cartogram