Population Projections Project for Canadas Census Areas Demographic

Population Projections Project for Canada’s Census Areas Demographic Trends and Projection Scenarios The Science of Demography

How can society intelligently participate in the setting of local, national, or global priorities if the population does not understand where we are, and where we are heading on current demographic trends?

Looking into the future

Section 1 The Science of Demography • • Demographics – defined Population Change - Components Current Demographic trends Relevance Population Projection Scenarios Censuses of Population Science of Demography

What are demographics? Demo – People Graphics –Description People Description

Population Change Components • Births o Number of Births for Mothers – Fertility o Age of Mother • Deaths o By Age and Sex – Life Expectancy • In-Migration o By Age and Sex • Out-Migration o By Age and Sex

Demographic Trends • Fertility – Births / number of children relative to the number of Females of Reproductive age • Life Expectancy – Death Expectancy • Migration – In Migration and Out Migration

Population Change in the Number of People By their age Males and Females By Age – 5 year age groups

Current Trends • To examine current trends we look at the censuses over the last 20 years, • 1996, 2001, 2006, 2011

Census of Canada – Counts by Age and Sex

Population Projection Scenarios What will the future population look like if current demographic trends continue?

Population Projection Scenarios • Referring to Canada’s Census of Population, one of the best sources in the world with which to watch for fundamental demographic shifts within a nation. • Calculations directly from Census Counts • Canadians should be among the best informed societies • “Canada’s latest baby boom” was said to have “caught experts by surprise”. (National Post, 2014)

Misunderstanding Demographic Trends "governments and bureaucracies have been much slower at the draw, raising questions of whether this phenomena crept up on them a little too fast". (Sarah Boesveld, National Post, July 2014)

• Comparison of Qualicum School District enrolment forecasts referred to during the 2010 and the 2013 facility reviews

Qualicum Local Health Area, and School District Population Forecast called a Projection

Science of Demography QUESTION o How can society intelligently participate in the setting of local to national priorities if the population cannot withstand the domination of authority and cannot verify all statements by an appeal to the facts? ANSWER o Society cannot intelligently participate in the setting of priorities if the population cannot withstand the domination of Authority and verify all statements by an appeal to the facts

Science o“Nullius in verba” o“No one’s word” o It is an expression of the determination of Fellows (of the Royal Society) to withstand the domination of authority and to verify all statements by an appeal to facts determined by experiment.

Projections vs Forecasts "Forecasting pretends to foretell the future, while the projection is an analytic tool which -- within the constraints of a tightly specified model -- enables the analyst to consider the implications of alternative scenarios. The issue of scenarios is important: in order to underline the analytic character of projections, it is our policy to publish always a set of possible projections, each corresponding to a well defined analytic scenario. " (Ivan Fellegi, 1999)

Scenario Projections Why is it important to have several scenarios when projecting population instead of just one? • Recognize that projections are not necessarily going to happen, random and unpredictable events can happen that will affect the future. • Acknowledge variability in the components of population change • So we can expect a range of possibilities • They are not forecasts that pretend to foretell the future. • Scenarios tell us what the future would look like if variations in current trends continue.

Why is it important to verify? • to ensure the integrity of the scientific and statistical process (for example, correct methods and data accompany “findings”) • to better understand the strengths and weaknesses of the methods, data, and findings • Ultimately to make informed decisions when setting local to national priorities.

Why is it important to verify • To verify and reproduce “findings”. • To maintain the integrity of the scientific and statistical process • To have “Insightful, non-partisan analysis… independent from the political direction of the current government. ” (Fellegi, 1999) • To have facts with which to guide policy development and implementation

Bibliography Fellegli, I. (1999). Analytic Activities at Statistics Canada. Statistical Commission and Economic Commission for Europe, United Nations. 1996, Statistics Canada - Cat. No. 97 F 0003 XCB 2001001 2001, Statistics Canada - Cat. No. 95 F 0300 XCB 2001004 2006, Source: Statistics Canada - 2006 Census. Catalogue Number 97 -551 -XCB 2006011. 2011, Source: Statistics Canada - 2011 Census. Catalogue Number 98 -311 -XCB 2011018.

Science of Demography Census of Population Counts adapted by William Warren Munroe Written and presented by William Warren Munroe For Grade 11 Social Studies Thank you to Mr. Bruce Richman and the Grade 11 students Ballenas Secondary School Copyright 2015