Population Modelling in the London Thames Gateway a

Population Modelling in the London Thames Gateway - a new approach for small area geographies Professor Allan J. Brimicombe BA(Hons) M. Phil. Ph. D. C. Geog. FRGS FGS Centre for Geo-Information Studies University of East London, UK a. j. brimicombe@uel. ac. uk http: //www. uel. ac. uk/geo-information

Project EASY The study area Lower Super Output Areas (LSOA) London Thames Gateway

Project EASY ONS small area population estimates Mid-year estimates at Local Authority and LSOA For LSOA estimates, data sets used are: • NHS patient register • Child benefit • Older persons dataset • Special populations: 1. Prisoners 2. UK armed forces 3. Foreign armed forces and dependents Constrained to Local Authority MYE The first three data sets are used to calculate change ratios for quinary are groups and gender which are then applied to the previous year’s estimate. Key assumption is that the relationship between these data sets and the true population remains the same for all years at small area geographies.

Project EASY GLA 2007 round demographic projections Mid-year estimates at Local Authority and Ward Change analysis 2001 -2006 based on ONS MYE Future fertility rates and gender/age-specific survival rates based on ONS 2006 MYE Main determinant of population distribution is the 2004 London Housing Capacity Study and DCLG 2004 -based household projections Inputs are: • Base population • Fertility • Mortality/survival • 2001 -02 migration matrix • 2001 migration flow age structures • 2002 -03, 2005 -06, 2006 -07 gross inflows and net flows • Development data • 2004 household representative rates

Project EASY Population estimates and projections 2001 Census -3 -2 -1 now Borough ONS Ward LSOA ONS GLA ONS future UEL models • Locally accessible data sets • Up-to-the-moment estimates • Small geographical areas (LSOA) • Can be carried out locally by analysts • Good quality data GLA UEL models Social Infrastructure Planning Local Authorities & PCTs £ Community Infrastructure Levy

Project EASY Modelling total Council Tax properties (2001 census)

Project EASY Key variables LSOA LA_NAME LA WARD X Y Hect E 01000006 Barking and Dagenham 00 ABFX 544994 184363 14. 653 E 01000007 Barking and Dagenham 00 ABFX 544179 184455 20. 009 E 01000008 Barking and Dagenham 00 ABFX 543654 184401 19. 506 Barking and Dagenham 00 ABFX 544587 184437 12. 796 E 01000010 Barking and Dagenham 00 ABFX 544244 184018 35. 207 E 01000011 Barking and Dagenham 00 ABFX 544427 184734 9. 164 E 01000012 Barking and Dagenham 00 ABFX 543907 184714 13. 905 E 01000013 Barking and Dagenham 00 ABFY 548956 184943 20. 783 E 01000014 Barking and Dagenham E 01000015 Barking and Dagenham E 01000016 Barking and Dagenham E 01000017 Barking and Dagenham 00 ABFY E 01000018 Barking and Dagenham 00 AB E 01000019 Barking and Dagenham E 01000020 E 01000021 E 01000009 Count of properties by Council Tax bands Multiple Home Occupancy Child Benefit 00 ABFY 548510 184922 34. 123 00 ABFY 549586 185102 28. 063 00 ABFY 549117 185496 19. 878 548925 185479 15. 837 00 ABFY 549372 185259 17. 399 00 ABFZ 547102 186478 18. 387 Barking and Dagenham 00 ABFZ 547400 186240 18. 724 Barking and Dagenham 00 ABFZ 546830 186034 16. 936 Schools Census (PLASC)

Project EASY Structure of the models Separate model for each Borough Total Estimated Population in Households without Dependent Children Population in Families with Dependent Children Occupied Households Dwelling Counts by Council Tax Band Houses with Multiple Occupancy Child Benefit Records School Census

Project EASY Variables by Borough Once built, the relationships are assumed to broadly remain between censuses and by plugging in the variables for each subsequent year, the population can be estimated at LSOA. . even up-to-the-moment. So, what are the results. . . .

Project EASY Comparing at 2001

Project EASY Comparing at 2005

Project EASY Waltham Forest

Project EASY Havering

Project EASY Redbridge

Project EASY Greenwich

Project EASY Hackney

Project EASY Change 2001 -2006

Project EASY Next steps 2001 Census -3 -2 -1 now LSOA future EASY (age structure) Social Infrastructure Planning Local Authorities & PCTs £ Community Infrastructure Levy Tools