Population growth rates and trends Topic 1 Population

Population growth rates and trends Topic 1 - Population Growth 1

Western Bay of Plenty Sub-region Includes: • Western Bay of Plenty District Council • Tauranga City Council • Coastal Marine Area 2

Population growth rate Rapid population growth since the 1950 s Cameron Road showing the Bellevue Temperance Hotel, west end of Wharf Street about 1910. 3

Population growth rate • Challenge - sustainable urban and rural development • Every week: • 135 people arrive • 66 people leave • 30 new houses built • 60 more vehicles • 51 new jobs 4

Future Growth Estimates • 2001 population 130, 000 – 14% up on 1996 census • 198, 000 by 2021 • 286, 000 by 2051 5

• Fourth or fifth most populated region in New Zealand 6 http: //www. mfe. govt. nz/publications/ser/enz 07 dec 07/html/chapter 2 -environment/page 3. html Source: Ministry for the Environment Population – NZ context • 2051 - 5. 2% of national population

Demographics • Ageing changing households • Single, two-person households likely to treble by 2051 • Population ageing 7 Photo © Smart Growth • Traditional families likely to double

Aging population • • Popular place to retire Aging population Demographic changes Workforce capacity - baby boomers retire • 5, 000 people over 80 • By 2051, more than 35, 000 Question / Pātai • Implications of aging population? 8

Young families, small households • Families with young children • Changing household structures • Traditional families double by 2051 • Single, two-person households treble by 2051 Question / Pātai • Implications of more families with young children? 9

Non-permanent residents • Other people: • • Short-term visitors/tourists Second homeowners Itinerant, seasonal workers Population forecasts may understate the position 10

Other factors • Changes in attractiveness: – Improved tertiary facilities – Improved employment opportunities – Worsening environment from growth (traffic congestion, reduced “small town” appeal) Question / Pātai • Larger population - positive or negative? 11

Implications of population growth • More houses, new types • More business land • Better roads, more efficient public transport • New, different health care • Safer walking, cycling • Access to high-quality water • More community, cultural and educational facilities • Wastewater, stormwater services Photos © Tauranga City Council 12

Implications of population growth Preserve: Photo © Indigo Pacific • Environment • Cultural heritage • Open space 13

Smart. Growth - restrain or manage growth? • Smart. Growth strategy based on: – restraining scale or rate of growth not practical at sub-regional level – forecast growth will be accommodated – development needs to constrained to protect important natural, physical or cultural features 14

Restrained growth Activity / Mahi 1. List reasons for restraining growth at subregional level 2. Develop an idea for retraining growth 3. Describe practical implications and limitations 4. List of reasons in favour of unrestrained growth at a sub-regional level 15

True / False Quiz • Western BOP does not include a marine area • Population increased 4% from 1996 census • Population forecasts only for permanent residents • Population growth implications - better roads, more efficient public transport? • Smart. Growth aims to constrain development in some areas of the sub region 16