Population Geography Terms and Concepts Geographic Models Just
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Population Geography Terms and Concepts
Geographic Models – Just like with human models, always remember geographic models are just models – not reality
GEOGRAPHIC MODELS § First, models are JUST models § Models are a way of showing geographic phenomena § Discuss the purpose of the model. What does the model do? § Basic assumptions of the model § Description and analysis of the model (e. g. , zones, transitions, activities in certain places) § Usefulness and/or applications of the model
Demographic Transition Model – page 44 Traditional View http: //www. geographyalltheway. com/igcse_geography/population_settlement/population/imagesetc/demographic_transition. jpg
Demographic Transition Model – page 44 Updated View https: //www. populationeducation. org/content/what-demographic-transition-model
Demographic Transition http: //envirosci. net/111/population/demographic_phases. jpg
Could we call the DTM stages…? Stage 1 – The no one lives here anymore stage Stage 2 – The sanitation and medical stage Stage 3 – The all about girls stage Stage 4 – The rich kids stage Stage 5 – The no more kids stage Remember – the DTM is about the transition process, not just trying to fit a country here or there. § National population statistics may not reveal regional variations within individual countries. What concept is demonstrated by this? ? § SCALE § British Influence on India § § §
Now, let’s apply the model Questions for the DTM Stage(s) Descriptor Billy loses his job as a grave digger Parents start to think more about family planning Children are warmer in bed at night because they have more brothers and sisters There are more Golden Anniversaries Large percentage of women never have a child A mother sobs over the grave of her last six children who died in a typhoid epidemic A lot more houses are being built The Public Health Inspector smiles as the building of sewers are completed Fewer children share a bedroom Grandparents are very rare A child is born and will have no brothers/sisters, no aunts/uncles, no cousins
Let’s sum up the Demographic Transition § https: //www. youtube. com/watch? v=d 1 d. IAtv. SFLM
Stage 5 of the Demographic Transition? ? § Negative Pop. Growth: § Sweden, Denmark, Russia, Germany are just a few examples § Italy and Spain – part of each country with TFRs (Total Fertility Rate) of 0. 8% (Bologna, Italy) § Why is this significant? § What about the United States TFR? § Highest TFR state in the US? Why? § Emigration and Immigration are also factors in population growth/decline. § Think this is not a real issue? What does NEGATIVE POP. GROWTH look like? § SINGAPORE – https: //www. youtube. com/watch? v=w. SLfo 5 Zx. U 9 c
Population Dynamics § Natural Increase – difference between number of births and the number of deaths in specific period. IMPORTANT – Gains and losses through migration are not counted in RNI (Rate of Natural Increase) § "r" is variously referred to as the "rate of natural increase" or the "per capita rate of increase" of the population, or as the "rate of net reproduction per individual. " § It is essentially the probability that any individual in the population will give birth during the time interval (usually year), discounted for their probability of dying. § § Crude Birth Rate (CBR) - # live births per year per 1000 population § What do these two numbers tell us? § Compare and Contrast these two. § What gender issues are there with IM and CM? Crude Death Rate (CDR) - # deaths per year per 1000 pop. Infant Mortality - # deaths per 1000 before 1 st birthday – map 58 -59 Child Mortality - # deaths per 1000 before 5 th birthday § Life Expectancy – page 49 § Life Expectancy Map – page 51
Population Dynamics § Total Fertility Rate (TFR) - # of children born to women of child-bearing age § Replacement Rate – 2. 1 babies per woman § Why does it have to be 2. 1 to replace a population § IMR and CMR – not all kids make it to adulthood § Total Fertility Rate – remember, the births/woman/lifetime § 6 -7 children in the periphery 1 -2 children in the core § China: 1968 - 6. 0 1998 - 1. 8 2008 - 0. 629 § REVIEW - Aside from artificial birth control, what are some factors which could reduce TFRs? § Late marriage, education of women, suffrage, women’s rights, political access/power, economic access, social access
Get your phones, power them up for math § § § § § r = b-d Crude Death Rate – gross # of deaths Crude Birth Rate – gross # of births CBR – CDR = RNI These are expressed per 1, 000 population Current global CBR is 21/1, 000 Current global CDR Is 9/1, 000 So, that equals a natural growth rate of ___ 12/1, 000 Or, expressed in a percentage = a global growth of 1. 2% per year The word “percent” means per 100. So, move the decimal over one place on each number and you get 1. 2 per 100 or 1. 2%!
Given the world has approximately 7. 3 billion people, how many will be added this year? § Math Shortcut – What is 10% of 7, 300, 000 people? § Answer – 730, 000 people § What is 10% of 730, 000? § ( Hint: 10% of 10% = 1%) § Answer – 73, 000 people § So, about how many people would 1. 2% (global RNI) be? § Math is - 7, 300, 000 x. 12 = 87, 600, 000 people § Answer – the world gains about 8. 76 Million people EVERY YEAR with a global RNI of 1. 2% § So, 1. 2% is a pretty big number, huh? !?
Other Ways of Figuring Demographic Change Births + In Migration - Deaths + Out Migration Total Population *Births, Deaths, and Migrations act as variables TP = OP + B – D + I – E TP – Total Pop. OP – Original Pop. B – Births D – Deaths I – Immigration (In) E – Emigration (Out)
DEMOGRAPHIC MOMENTUM Demographic Momentum - tendency for growing populations to continue growing after a fertility decline because of their young age distribution. In other words, fertility is reduced significantly – but the population continues to grow – many times for a generation or more. RNI § Population Increase/year § 1965 -69 2. 1 growth 4 B people 80 M increase § 1985 -89 1. 6 growth 5 B people 80 M increase § 1997 1. 5 growth 6 B people 90 M increase § TFRs 1970 -80 s § INDIA AFRICA S. AMERICA 2. 6………………. . 1. 8 2. 4………………. . 2. 8 3. 0………………. . 1. 7 § BRAZIL 2. 9………………. . 1. 5 § CHINA 6. 1………. . 1. 7 § IRAN 6. 8………. . ……… 2. 5 § KENYA 8. 1………………. . 5. 0 § What is the KEY NUMBER? ? !!! 2000 s
The arithmetic of doubling time and demographic momentum § Doubling Time § Demographic Momentum § The most important video you will ever see (according to You. Tube) § Mathematics of population, doubling time, percentages and growth § http: //www. youtube. com/watch? v=F-QA 2 rkp. BSY
Demographic Momentum and Doubling Time § DOUBLING TIME – time required for a population to double in size – § RNI – Rate Nat. Increase § 1% = 70 years § 2% = 35 years § 3% = 23 years § 4% = 18 years § Factors of Growth – Steady Growth for 70 Years § Growth Rate/Year Factor § 1% 2=2 § 2% 2 x 2 = 4 § 3% 2 x 2 x 2 = 8 § 4% 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 = 16 § 5% 2 x 2 x 2 = 32 § 6% 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 = 64 § 7% 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 = 128 So, is 4, 5, 6 or 7% a high growth rate? What did Dr. Bartlett say? § Can you describe DEMOGRAPHIC MOMENTUM now?
Malthus – An examination of Global Population History and Dynamics POPULATION EXPLOSION TIME GLOBAL POP. DOUBLING TIME 2000 years ago 250 million NA 1650 500 million 1600+ years 1820 1 billion 170 years 1930 2 billion 100 years 1975 4 billion 45 years Mid-1980 s 5. 3 billion 39 years 2000 s 6 billion 51 years Examples to Remember: Growth DT = 70/ RNI 10% 7 years 2% 35 years 1. 8% 39 years 0. 7% 98 years
THOMAS MALTHUS and ESTER BOSERUP § Who cares about a British economist from 1798? § Or a woman from Denmark? § Apparently, the APHG exam writers do…
2011 AP® HUMAN GEOGRAPHY FREE-RESPONSE QUESTION 2 2. In 1798 Thomas Robert Malthus published An Essay on the Principle of Population in which he argued that population growth will inevitably outpace food production, resulting in widespread famine. A. Identify and explain TWO reasons why some geographers today believe Malthus’ theory can be used to predict future population issues. B. Identify and explain TWO reasons why some geographers today believe Malthus’ theory cannot be used to predict future population issues. § British economist § 1798 essay § Geometric vs. Arithmetic Rates
Malthus continued & some Boserup § Pretend you are Thomas Malthus in 1798. What did he see as he looked out his London window in 1798? § LINEAR (arithmetic) GROWTH – agriculture increases in a uniform amount during equal time periods (money example) § EXPONENTIAL (geometric) GROWTH – population increases are compounded on top of one another § Population and Subsistence - Population would eventually overtake means to produce food § Why was Malthus wrong? He probably wasn’t until… § Green Revolution – Mechanization, Hybridization, Fossil Fuels, Large-Scale § Technology – Genetic engineering § Ester Boserup countered Malthus § She said subsistence farmers respond to consumption – that is, local farmers know how much they have and how much they need
Malthus – Population and Food Production – This is why he crapped his pants LINEAR GROWTH OF FOOD PRODUCTION GEOMETRIC GROWTH OF POPULATION
Comparing Malthus and Boserup http: //ecotope. org/blogs/post/2011/01/11/Saved!-by-Ester-Boserup. aspx
Was Malthus wrong? Short article on the subject for you to read § https: //www. scientificamerican. com/article/why-malthus-is-still-wrong/
Neo-Malthusians § What is a Neo-Malthusian? § Neo-Malthusians believe that Malthus was right – even today § Paul Ehrlich is the most famous § Neo-Malthusians today mostly focus on the damage done to the environment by having too many people § Particularly the role wealthy countries of the world in environmental damage to the environment § Population Bomb video
Other Population Terms § § CONTROLLING POPULATION Pronatal Antinatal Technology § Contraceptive film § Pills § Condom (male and female) § IUD § Injections (e. g. , Depo Provera) § Norplants § Diaphragm § Morning-after pill § Sponges § Patch § Tubal Ligation § Vasectomy § Abortion
DEPENDENCY RATIO § 15 or 25 and under § Over 65 or 60 § Who is in the middle? § 15 -64 § What are some of the implications of too few people in the middle of these two cohorts? § Where is this occurring? § Japan, China, US? Degrees of the issues?
GENDER or SEX RATIOS http: //www. feministtimes. com/son-preference/ § Expressed as a ratio § 125: 100 in a region of India § 117: 100 in a region of China § In China these men are called “Bare Branches” § Up to 70 million Bare Branches in China § What do these numbers mean? § What are the ramifications of these numbers? § What are two possible solutions to get these men a bride? § Look up some of these sex ratio numbers by country. Pattern? § China and gender ratios – video 2 min. http: //www. youtube. com/watch? v=t. ALpo. XIk. CKk
SON PREFERENCE § Photo – page 42 in your text § Son preference – Why is this so important in India? § Use of ultrasound technology in India and China § Female Infanticide
http: //www. feministtimes. com/son-preference/
http: //www. indexmundi. com/blog/index. php/tag/son-preference/
http: //www. hindustantimes. com/india-news/newdelhi/survey-reveals-rot-in-backyard-of-rich/article 1 -987453. aspx
CHINA’S DECISION-MAKING ON IMPLEMENTING THE ONE CHILD POLICY § 2 Billion Starvation- Fight for Food 3 Children/Family § 1. 5 Billion + Severe Hardship 2 -3 Children/Family § 1. 5 Billion Poverty 2 Children/Family § 1 Billion All Fed and Housed 1. 5 Children/Family § 500 Million Doubled Living Standard 1 Child/Family
§ § § Ways China reduced the number of births BIRTH CONTROL – mainly via “coil” or intrauterine device (IUD), abortions also widely used Why would the Chinese rely primarily on IUDs to control population? ONE-CHILD FAMILIES LATE MARRIAGE What benefits can the one-child family expect of this policy? ü Lower taxes and money from government for each child ü Education, child care, health care for the child for life ü Many privileges other citizens did not receive § When are 2 nd births acceptable? § § ü Physical/Mental defect in child ü Death of spouse ü Divorce How might the One Child Policy change/alter the SOCIAL FABRIC of China? “Little Emperors”
CHINA - State-sponsored population policies – pp. 56 -58 and photo on page 65 of your text http: //www. flumesday. com/testing/wp-content/uploads/2009/07/onechild. gif
By the late 1970 s, China was facing starvation http: //www. learner. org/courses/envsci/visual/img_med/china_one_child. jpg
Why has having a son in China been so important? How has (or has it? ) this changed now? http: //www. tacomacc. edu/home/yli/images/c artoons/cartoon 11. png
India § http: //www. shunya. net/Pictures/South%20 India/Goa. Panjim. htm http: //faculty. lasierra. edu/~sswamina/
China’s and India’s populations § http: //www. youtube. com/watch? v=to. Et. P 4 Tf. L 2 U
Population Policies § Government policies to control population § Find examples (not including India and China) where governments tried to control population growth § Government policies to expand the population § Find examples where governments tried to expand, or encourage, population growth
http: //news. bbc. co. uk/nol/shared/spl/hi/guides/456900/456964/img/1148055065. gif
Limits on Population Growth § Some researchers have indicated the world could support as many as 100 billion people § What and who would have to change for Earth to support such numbers? § Disease § Famine (political, climate, food source disease) § Technology
Hans can help!!!! For homework, go to Moodle or Google: Hans Rosling and The Good News of the Decade § At home watch this 15 minute video § Write a one paragraph reflection (at least 6 -8 complete sentences in your own words) § Email your paragraph to me by Monday, September 2 h by 9: 00 pm § http: //www. ted. com/talks/hans_rosling_the_good_news_of_the_decade. h tml? utm_source=newsletter_weekly_2010 -1012&utm_campaign=newsletter_weekly&utm_medium=email
www. myfootprint. org/ What is your ecological footprint? How many Earths do we need if we all lived like you?
Hans Rosling - Demographic Momentum § Demographic Momentum – 5 min. http: //www. gapminder. org/videos/religions-and-babies/
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