POPULATION FORECASTING INCREMENTAL INCREASE METHOD 23032013 INCREMENTAL INCREASE

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POPULATION FORECASTING INCREMENTAL INCREASE METHOD 23/03/2013 INCREMENTAL INCREASE METHOD 1

POPULATION FORECASTING INCREMENTAL INCREASE METHOD 23/03/2013 INCREMENTAL INCREASE METHOD 1

Presented by Group 5: 23/03/2013 o o SEECHURN Ashivan (ID no. 1013779) BHOODHOO Pranesh

Presented by Group 5: 23/03/2013 o o SEECHURN Ashivan (ID no. 1013779) BHOODHOO Pranesh Singh (ID no. 1016842) JUGGURNATH Bhuveenesh (ID no. 1011316) MUTTY Yagnesh (ID no. 1010926) o o GOOLAB Muhafeez Mohammad (ID no. 1012799) SEWDINE Deepin (ID no. 1012426) INCREMENTAL INCREASE METHOD 2

TABLE OF CONTENTS: v Introduction v Factors affecting changes in population v Population Forecasting

TABLE OF CONTENTS: v Introduction v Factors affecting changes in population v Population Forecasting v Incremental Increase Method v Example 23/03/2013 INCREMENTAL INCREASE METHOD 3

INTRODUCTION The design of waste water treatment plant and sanitation scheme is based on

INTRODUCTION The design of waste water treatment plant and sanitation scheme is based on the projected population of a particular area, estimated for the design period. Any underestimated value will make the system inadequate for the intended purpose while overestimation will make it costly. As over the years the population of the area is ever changing, the system should be designed by considering of the population at the end of the design period. 23/03/2013 INCREMENTAL INCREASE METHOD 4

FACTORS AFFECTING CHANGES IN POPULATION: § Birth rate (causes an increase) § Death rate

FACTORS AFFECTING CHANGES IN POPULATION: § Birth rate (causes an increase) § Death rate (causes a decrease) § Migration (causes either an increase or a decrease) § Annexation (causes an increase) 23/03/2013 INCREMENTAL INCREASE METHOD 5

POPULATION FORECASTING After collecting the present and past population record for the area (from

POPULATION FORECASTING After collecting the present and past population record for the area (from census population records), the population at the end of design period can be predicted using various methods by considering the growth pattern of the concerned area. 23/03/2013 INCREMENTAL INCREASE METHOD 6

INCREMENTAL INCREASE METHOD This method is a modification of the arithmetical increase method and

INCREMENTAL INCREASE METHOD This method is a modification of the arithmetical increase method and it is suitable for an average size town under normal condition where the growth rate is found to be in increasing order. While adopting this method the increase in increment is considered for calculating future population. 23/03/2013 INCREMENTAL INCREASE METHOD 7

INCREMENTAL INCREASE METHOD 23/03/2013 INCREMENTAL INCREASE METHOD 8

INCREMENTAL INCREASE METHOD 23/03/2013 INCREMENTAL INCREASE METHOD 8

EXAMPLE: Predict the population for the year 2021, 2031, and 2041 from the following

EXAMPLE: Predict the population for the year 2021, 2031, and 2041 from the following population data using the incremental increase method. 23/03/2013 YEAR POPULATION 1961 860, 741 1971 989, 726 1981 1, 201, 897 1991 1, 689, 890 2001 2, 079, 270 2011 2, 601, 071 INCREMENTAL INCREASE METHOD 9

SOLUTION 23/03/2013 YEAR POPULATION INCREASE (X) INCREMENTAL INCREASE (Y) 1961 860, 741 - -

SOLUTION 23/03/2013 YEAR POPULATION INCREASE (X) INCREMENTAL INCREASE (Y) 1961 860, 741 - - 1971 989, 726 128, 985 - 1981 1, 201, 897 212, 171 + 83, 186 1991 1, 689, 890 484, 993 + 272, 822 2001 2, 079, 270 389, 380 - 95, 613 2011 2, 601, 071 521, 801 + 132, 421 TOTAL 1, 737, 330 273, 816 AVERAGE 347, 466 54, 763 INCREMENTAL INCREASE METHOD 10

SOLUTION For year 2021: For year 2031: For year 2041: 23/03/2013 INCREMENTAL INCREASE METHOD

SOLUTION For year 2021: For year 2031: For year 2041: 23/03/2013 INCREMENTAL INCREASE METHOD 11

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Population Forecasting using Geometric Increase Method Presented byPopulation Forecasting using Geometric Increase Method Presented by
Population Population Increase Why did this increase occurPopulation Population Increase Why did this increase occur
Population Population Increase World Population Growth Where isPopulation Population Increase World Population Growth Where is
Introduction Definition Forecasting Technology Technological Forecasting Process ForecastingIntroduction Definition Forecasting Technology Technological Forecasting Process Forecasting
Forecasting Forecasting Problems and Methods New product forecastingForecasting Forecasting Problems and Methods New product forecasting
Forecasting Forecasting A Basis of Forecasting In businessForecasting Forecasting A Basis of Forecasting In business
Forecasting Forecasting A Basis of Forecasting In businessForecasting Forecasting A Basis of Forecasting In business
DEMAND FORECASTING DEMAND FORECASTING Demand forecasting means estimationDEMAND FORECASTING DEMAND FORECASTING Demand forecasting means estimation