Population estimates and demographic projections in Spain Work

Population estimates and demographic projections in Spain Work Session on Demographic Projections, 28 -30 April 2010, Lisbon

Population statistics in Spain before 2005 Demographic Census 2001 Intercensal Population Estimates Long Term Population Projections Vital events questionnaires Vital Statistics Demographics Indicators & Mortality Tables Population register “Padrón” Migration Statistics Work Session on Demographic Projections, 28 -30 April 2010, Lisbon

Population statistics in Spain after 2005 Vital events questionnaires Vital Statistics Monthly Demographic Now Cast Padrón: Population register Demographics Indicators & Mortality Tables Population Now Cast Short and Long Term Population Projections Migration Statistics Work Session on Demographic Projections, 28 -30 April 2010, Lisbon

Monthly Demographic Now Cast : objectives üReducing the time to disseminate data provided for traditional sources in order to: üKnowing current demographic data to develope Population Now Cast and projections. üProviding figures to cover increasing demands on data about current demographic evolution. Work Session on Demographic Projections, 28 -30 April 2010, Lisbon

Monthly Demographic Now Cast : products 1) Monthly estimation of demographic events: births, deaths and migration flows. 2) Regional breakdowns (Nuts 3) and breakdowns for basic demographic variables (sex, age, citizenship). 3) Monthly update of main demographic indicators. Work Session on Demographic Projections, 28 -30 April 2010, Lisbon

Monthly Demographic Now Cast on migrations: information circuit Monthly account of variations and i mo ng an d del ling INE Exp Variations in the population register Municipalities Monthly Demographic Now Cast Auxiliary sources nd a ing g d an ellin p d Ex o m Work Session on Demographic Projections, 28 -30 April 2010, Lisbon

Monthly estimates of migration flow: methodology • Flows to estimate and sources used: – Births – Deaths Based on vital events statistics – Migration • External – Inmigration – Emigration Based mainly on Padron, but not only • Internal Work Session on Demographic Projections, 28 -30 April 2010, Lisbon

Monthly estimates of migration flow: methodology • Flows to estimate and methodology used: – Births – Deaths – Migration • External – Inmigration – Emigration Expanding coefficient • Internal Work Session on Demographic Projections, 28 -30 April 2010, Lisbon

Example how we use expanding coefficients: Monthly external immigration flow • The amount of events that happened in month m, year a is unknown – Example January 2010 • The amount of register variations received in INE in month m+x, year a that happened in month m and year a – Example: in February 2010, 22. 362 variations were received that happened in January 2010 • The amount of events that happened and that were received in the previous year – Example in January 2009 finally happened 33. 505 variations and in February of 2009 only 31. 233 of these had been received in INE • The expanding coefficient – Example 33505/31. 233=1, 0727 • The final estimation of variations in month m, year a (January 2010) Work Session on Demographic Projections, 28 -30 April 2010, Lisbon – Example 22362*1, 0727= 23. 989

1. - Monthly external immigration flow: accuracy and robustness • Flujo deexternal inmigración exterior mensual Monthly immigration flow Ja nu Fe ary br -08 ua M ry -0 ar ch 8 -0 Ap 8 ril M -08 ay -0 Ju 8 ne -0 Ju 8 ly Au -08 Se gu pt st em 08 b O er-0 ct 8 N obe ov em r-08 b D ic erem 0 be 8 Ja r-08 nu Fe ary br -0 ua 9 r M y-0 ar 9 ch -0 9 80000 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 Estimation april 2009 Registered Work Session on Demographic Projections, 28 -30 April 2010, Lisbon

Monthly estimates of migration flow: methodology • Flows to estimate and methodology used: – Births – Deaths Migration • External Expanding coefficient – Inmigration – Emigration • Internal Work Session on Demographic Projections, 28 -30 April 2010, Lisbon

Monthly estimates of external emigration flow: methodology Five different types to analyze: 1. Emigration flows to abroad declared in the Padrón. 2. Emigration flows to abroad of foreign citizen registered in the Padrón through actions carried out directly by the municipalities. 3. Emigration flows to abroad of non EU citizen without permanent resident permit registered in the Padrón through expiry procedure. 4. Emigration flows of EU citizen not included in previous groups (variations non registered in the Padrón). 5. Emigration flows of non EU citizen with permanent resident permit not included in previous groups (variations non registered in the Padrón). Work Session on Demographic Projections, 28 -30 April 2010, Lisbon

Monthly external emigration flow 1. -Emigration flows declared in the Padrón. Same procedure presented previously Work Session on Demographic Projections, 28 -30 April 2010, Lisbon

Monthly external emigration flow 2. - Emigration flows to abroad of foreign citizen registered in the Padrón through actions carried out directly by the municipalities. – Exact date of the departure is unknown, • imputation is based on an uniform distribution of the emigration time between last variation registered in the Padrón central database (which confirms the stay in the country) and the date of the ex oficio deregistration. – Then, same procedure previously presented Work Session on Demographic Projections, 28 -30 April 2010, Lisbon

2. - Emigration flows to abroad of foreign citizen registered in the Padrón through actions carried out directly by the municipalities. Work Session on Demographic Projections, 28 -30 April 2010, Lisbon

Monthly external emigration flow 3. - Emigration flows of non EU citizen without permanent resident permit registered in the Padrón through expiry procedure: • Foreigners that don´t have a permanent residence permit have to re-register themselves in the Padrón every two years. • Eu citizens and non-EU citizens with permanent resident permits are not concerned by this regulation. Work Session on Demographic Projections, 28 -30 April 2010, Lisbon

Monthly external emigration flow 3. - Emigration flows of non EU citizen without permanent resident permit registered in the Padrón through expiry procedure. • Four steps – Estimation of the number of records that are going to expire in the following 24 months (these would be situations that affect variations that happened in the past) – Estimating which of the records that are going to expire in the following 24 months will be finally confirmed • The average percentage of confirmed exits over the total expired registrations in past months with almost definitive results of the expiry procedure is used as estimator. – Now we need to estimate the real emigration date of estimated exits. – Finally, a smoothing procedure is made over the resulting shape of the time distribution Work Session on Demographic Projections, 28 -30 April 2010, Lisbon

Monthly external emigration flow 4. - Emigration flows of EU citizen not included in previous groups (non registered in the Padrón). • The estimated percentage of EU citizens migrating abroad time after their arrival is got from a survey • The migration calendar of UE citizens are estimated trough the smoothed distribution of emigration date respect to the time of residence in Spain. • The estimated percentage of UE citizens migrating abroad and the estimated calendar of emigration give the monthly emigration flow of UE citizens not registered by Municipalities. Work Session on Demographic Projections, 28 -30 April 2010, Lisbon

Monthly external emigration flow 5. - Emigration flows of non EU citizen with permanent resident permit not included in previous groups (non registered in the Padrón). Same procedure than the previous one Work Session on Demographic Projections, 28 -30 April 2010, Lisbon

Now we can follow the recent past Age Number of births Total fertility rate and mean age at childbearing TFR MACh Work Session on Demographic Projections, 28 -30 April 2010, Lisbon

Now we can follow the recent past Au g 0 8 J ul 09 Life expectancy at birth Males Females Work Session on Demographic Projections, 28 -30 April 2010, Lisbon

Now, we have improved the timeliness Work Session on Demographic Projections, 28 -30 April 2010, Lisbon

Now, we have improved the timeliness Work Session on Demographic Projections, 28 -30 April 2010, Lisbon

Now, we have improved the timeliness Work Session on Demographic Projections, 28 -30 April 2010, Lisbon

Population statistics in Spain after 2005 Vital events questionnaires Vital Statistics Monthly Demographic Now Cast Padrón: Population register Demographics Indicators & Mortality Tables Population Now Cast Short and Long Term Population Projections Migration Statistics Work Session on Demographic Projections, 28 -30 April 2010, Lisbon

Population now cast ü Best statistical estimation of current resident population that we can produce with the information available in each moment. ü Population reference figures for the INE statistical production. ü Breakdowns: Spain, Autonomous Regions and provinces by sex, age and citizenship üCoherence between flows and stocks üCoherence between different territorial levels Work Session on Demographic Projections, 28 -30 April 2010, Lisbon

Methodology is partly determined by some of its special characteristics • Periodicity: quarterly availability of data. • Timeliness: only a few days after the reference date • It is an advanced estimation Work Session on Demographic Projections, 28 -30 April 2010, Lisbon

Una metodología genuina: el método de componentes adaptado Population now cast 1 st quarter 2009 Multirregional model (Willekens, Drewe) Auxiliary projection January 2009 Population now cast Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dic Jan Work Session on Demographic Projections, 28 -30 April 2010, Lisbon

Una metodología genuina: el método de componentes adaptado Population now cast 1 st quarter 2009 Auxiliary projection January 2009 A. P. February 2009 Population now cast Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dic Jan Work Session on Demographic Projections, 28 -30 April 2010, Lisbon

Una metodología genuina: el método de componentes adaptado Population now cast 1 st quarter 2009 Auxiliary projection January 2009 A. P. February 2009 A. P. March 2009 Population now cast Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dic Jan Work Session on Demographic Projections, 28 -30 April 2010, Lisbon

Population statistics in Spain after 2005 Vital events questionnaires Vital Statistics Monthly Demographic Now Cast Padrón: Population register Demographics Indicators & Mortality Tables Population Now Cast Short and Long Term Population Projections Migration Statistics Work Session on Demographic Projections, 28 -30 April 2010, Lisbon

Which is the objective of our demographic projections ? ü It is not to make a forecast. ü It is an statistical simulation about how will be the stock and basic structure of population based on some hypothesis about future demographic evolution. ü Main goal: showing where we will be if recent demographics trends remain constant in the future. Work Session on Demographic Projections, 28 -30 April 2010, Lisbon

Population projections with this approach üNeutral: we do not make any assumptions about unknown changes in future evolution of events ü Usefull: advance warning of possible future risks. ü Updated: guaranteed by the periodicity in its data Work Session on Demographic Projections, 28 -30 April 2010, Lisbon

Methodology allow to produce data about demographic components üComponent method. üMultirregional model (Willekens, Drewe). üCoherence of data between all territorial levels. üCoherence between stocks and flows. üThe projection provides data for population and also for each demographic event. Work Session on Demographic Projections, 28 -30 April 2010, Lisbon

Methodology to calculate fertility component Fertility rates by age observed 1996 -2008 and projected 2009 -2018 Work Session on Demographic Projections, 28 -30 April 2010, Lisbon

Action plan since 2008 • Short term population projection: ü Term: 10 years. ü Periodicity: annual. ü Territorial breakdown: Spain, autonomous regions and provinces Work Session on Demographic Projections, 28 -30 April 2010, Lisbon

Action plan since 2008 • Long term population projection : ü Term: 40 years ü Periodicity: Every three years. ü Territorial breakdown: only national figures. Work Session on Demographic Projections, 28 -30 April 2010, Lisbon

Thank you very much for your attention! Population Statistics Directorate Instituto Nacional de Estadística miguelangel. martinez. vidal@ine. es simuriel@ine. es Work Session on Demographic Projections, 28 -30 April 2010, Lisbon