Population Chapter 2 Chap 2 Population Envs 204
- Slides: 107
Population Chapter 2 Chap 2 Population Envs 204 1
Oct 2016 u Note extra credit lecture u Note means of making a definition Chap 2 Population Envs 204 2
The West Fall 2017 Chap 2 Population Envs 204 3
Fall 2016 Class Chap 2 Population Envs 204 4
Fall 2015 “The West” Chap 2 Population Envs 204 5
Class Based Vernacular West Boundary – Fall 2013 Chap 2 Population Envs 204 6
Class Based Vernacular West Boundary – Fall 2013 Chap 2 Population Envs 204 7
Class Based Vernacular West Boundary – Spring 2012 Chap 2 Population Envs 204 8
Class. Fall Based Vernacular West 2012 Class Boundary – Spring 2012 Chap 2 Population Envs 204 9
World Population Centers -Today 5 th concentration 4 major concentrations with 2/3 rds of all population Chap 2 Population Envs 204 10
World Population http: //www. census. gov/popclock/ Chap 2 Population Envs 204 11
Population by Continent Rank Continent Population 2013 ±% p. a. 2010 -2013 7, 162, 119, 000 1. 17% — World 1 Asia 4, 298, 723, 000 1. 06% 2 Africa 1, 110, 635, 000 2. 51% 3 Americas 972, 005, 000 1. 03% 4 Europe 742, 452, 000 0. 10% 5 Oceania 38, 304, 000 1. 47% Africa may replace Asia by 2100 Chap 2 Population Envs 204 12
Density Measures u Thing on top – Area on bottom u Arithmetic D = Pop/Area – Limited value u Physiological D = Pop/Arable Area – Pre-Industrial indicator of Carrying Capacity u Agricultural D = Farmers/Arable Area – Indicator of Economic Development Chap 2 Population Envs 204 13
(Arithmentic) Chap 2 Population Envs 204 14
Arithmetic Density Illustrated Chap 2 Population Envs 204 15
Chap 2 Population Envs 204 16
The Rise of the Mega. Regions Florida et. Al 2008 “Uses a global dataset of nighttime light emissions to produce an objectively consistent set of mega-regions for the globe. ” https: //static. sys. kth. se/itm/wp/cesiswp 129. pdf Based on 3 types, what kind of a Region is this? Chap 2 Population Envs 204 17
Another View Chap 2 Population Envs 204 18
Or This Chap 2 Population Envs 204 19
Here size is related to pop not area. Population Cartogram Chap 2 Population Envs 204 20
DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION MODEL Chap 2 Population Envs 204 21
Today u u Investigate the Demographic Transition Model Investigate Types of Diagrams used to display and map Demographics Chap 2 Population Envs 204 22
1. DEFINING GENERAL TERMS AND CONCEPTS Chap 2 Population Envs 204 23
Basic Terms Crude Birth Rate Crude Death Rate of Natural Increase Infant Mortality Rate Fertility Rate Chap 2 Population Envs 204 24
Crude Birth Rate CBR (example) u Number of live births per year = 3, 180 u Divided by population = 200, 000 u Times 1, 000 CBR = [(3, 180)/200, 000] x 1, 000 CBR = 15. 9 births per 1, 000 people Chap 2 Population Envs 204 25
Crude Birth Rate Chap 2 Population Envs 204 26
USA Crude Birth Rate 2015 Chap 2 Population Envs 204 27
Crude Death Rate CDR (example) u Number of deaths per year = 1, 860 u Divided by population = 200, 000 u Times 1, 000 CDR = [(1, 860)/200, 000] x 1, 000 CDR = 9. 3 deaths per 1, 000 people Chap 2 Population Envs 204 28
Crude Death Rate Chap 2 Population Envs 204 29
Rate of Natural Increase RNI (example) u CBR = 15. 9 u Minus CDR = 9. 3 u Divided by 10 RNI = (CBR – CDR)/10 = [(15. 9 -9. 3) /10 = 0. 66% growth per year Chap 2 Population Envs 204 30
Chap 2 Population Envs 204 31
Rate of Natural Increase Chap 2 Population Envs 204 32
Doubling Time Rate of Nat. Increase Doubling Time 1% 70 yrs 2% 35 yrs 3% 24 yrs USA 0. 545 % 128 yrs http: //www. metamorphosisalpha. com/ias /population. php Chap 2 Population Envs 204 33
Infant Mortality Rate IM u number of newborns dying under 0 ne year of age = 25 u divided by the number of live births during same year = 3, 180 u Times 1, 000 IM = (25/3, 180) x 1, 000 IM = 7. 9 deaths per 1, 000 births Chap 2 Population Envs 204 34
Where do you think the USA Falls on this list of Infant Mortality? Lowest IM Chap 2 Population Envs 204 35
Infant Mortality Rate Chap 2 Population Envs 204 36
Fertility Rate u Average Number of child births u Per woman u Since a couple is 2 people, need a little more than 2 births to replace the parents u 2. 1 is considered a stable growth fertility rate in the USA or a Developed Country Chap 2 Population Envs 204 37
1. 87 Chap 2 Population Envs 204 38
https: //data. worldbank. org/indicator/SP. DYN. TFRT. IN Chap 2 Population Envs 204 39
USA Fertility Rate Chap 2 Population Envs 204 40
Chap 2 Population Envs 204 41
Total Fertility Rate 2013 – Few states at replacement Chap 2 Population Envs 204 42
Global Fertility Rate Great Web Interactive web site http: //www. geoba. se/population. php? pc=world&type=010&year=2049&st=rank&asde=&page=1 Chap 2 Population Envs 204 43
Types of Diagrams u Demographic Transition Model u Population Pyramid u Trend Diagrams – Temporal (over time) – Spatial (over space u Survivorship Diagram Chap 2 Population Envs 204 44
2. DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION MODEL Chap 2 Population Envs 204 45
Birth rate Natural increase Death rate Time Note: Natural increase is produced from the excess of births over deaths. Chap 2 Population Envs 204 46
Another way of displaying rate of natural increase Curve for changing Rate of Natural Increase during the Demographic Transition Chap 2 Population Envs 204 47
What is the Demographic Transition Model? u The "Demographic Transition" is a model that describes population change over time. – – Our main concern has been growth Now in Industrial Countries it is in decline Chap 2 Population Envs 204 48
What is the Demographic Transition Model? u It is based on an interpretation begun in 1929 by the American demographer Warren Thompson, of the observed changes, or transitions, in birth and death rates in industrialized societies over the past two hundred years or so. Chap 2 Population Envs 204 49
What is the Demographic Transition Model? u The "Demographic Transition" is a model/ a scientific hypothesis – Until the 1990 s it seemed to work well with Developed Countries – It worked pretty well with Less Developed Countries Chap 2 Population Envs 204 50
What is the Demographic Transition Model? u The "Demographic Transition" is based on the Scientific Method, – so we are continually “experimenting” with it and improving it Chap 2 Population Envs 204 51
Impacts and Consequences The next several sets of tables summarizes the measures of impacts of the Transition Four Stages Impacts u 1. Very Low Growth u 2. High Growth u 3. High but Slowing Growth u 4. Low Growth u u Some now see a fifth stage 5. ? ? ? Decline sets in ? ? Which is the case in Europe and Japan Factors That Change over the Stages u Family Size u Infant Mortality & Fertility Rates u Family Economics u Status of Kids u Gender Roles u Health Conditions u Child Deaths u Population Size Chap 2 Population Envs 204 52
Demographic Transition Model Stage 1 : Pre industrializat ion: Stable population growth CBR High Birth rates Stage 2: Rapid population growth Stage 3: Continued and decreasing population growth High Birth rates Falling Birth rates Stage 4: Stable low population growth Low Birth rates Family Size Family Planning -- planned Planning -- The general The plan is to have general plan is to have fewer kids to have many kids Trends stabilize with 2 kid families or less Infant Mortality Rate/ Fertility Rate Family Economics Many children because few survive-- high fertility rate Many children are needed to work the land Still many kids because expect few to survive -- high fertility Lower infant mortality rates -less pressure to have children, fertility declines Small family size low fertility rate Children are still useful for work Increased mechanization and industrialization means less need for labor/kids Women are working in great numbers Chap 2 Population Envs 204 53
Demographic Transition Model Stage 1 : Pre industrializati on: Stable population growth Stage 2: Rapid population growth Stage 3: Continued and decreasing population growth Stage 4: Stable low population growth High Birth rates Falling Birth rates Low Birth rates Status of Kids Children are a sign of virility & status and old age insurance Increased desire for material possessions and less desire for large families Kids are an expense & “bling” Gender roles Strong sex roles Emancipation of women CBR Chap 2 Population Envs 204 54
Stage 1 : Pre industrializ ation: Stable population growth Stage 2: Rapid population growth Stage 3: Continued and decreasing population growth Stage 4: Stable low population growth CDR High Death Rates Falling Death rates Rates Low Death rates Low Health Conditi ons Poor Diet & Sanitation, Famine and Disease Improved diet, sanitation & medical care Child Deaths High child mortality before age 5 A decrease in Child child mortality very low Slight No change improvement Stable After Copper, Models of Demography, http: //www. bized. ac. uk/virtual/dc/copper/theory/th 10. htm Chap 2 Population Envs 204 55
Stage 1 : Pre industrializ ation: Stable population growth Stage 2: Rapid population growth Rate Natural Increase Very Low Growth High Growth Slowing Growth Population Size Small Population Bigger Stage 3: Continued and decreasing population growth Bigger Stage 4: Stable low population growth Low Growth Biggest After Copper, Models of Demography, http: //www. bized. ac. uk/virtual/dc/copper/theory/th 10. htm Chap 2 Population Envs 204 56
In Class Exercise u Divide into groups of 2 or 3 u For the next two diagrams determine the years for the start of Stage 2, 3 and 4 as appropriate – put answers on Socrative. com Sources http: //www. marathon. uwc. edu/geography/demotrans/demtran. htm Chap 2 Population Envs 204 57
Developed Country Example: Sweden Note that reality is a bit messier than theory. Chap 2 Population Envs 204 58
Developing Country Example: Mexico This looks more like what we are expecting Chap 2 Population Envs 204 59
Combination emphasizing changes over time, Sweden takes longer and Sweden starts from lower CBR and CDR Chap 2 Population Envs 204 60
Malthus – And the Doomsdayers vs. Cornicopians Chap 2 Population Envs 204 61
Pop. Growth Food Growth India has experienced a so-called Green Revolution that has food growth keeping pace with population growth, will this last? Chap 2 Population Envs 204 62
Lester Brown Click page to learn more Chap 2 Population Envs 204 63
Do we need to worry? Chap 2 Population Envs 204 64
3. TYPES OF DIAGRAMS Chap 2 Population Envs 204 65
More Types of Diagrams u These diagrams help us to understand the mechanism causing the Demographic Transition Model to operate and its impact – Survivorship Diagram – Stabilization Ratio Diagram – Population Pyramids – Temporal Trends – Spatial Trends Chap 2 Population Envs 204 66
Survivorship Diagram: Emphasis on longer life expectancy as CDR drops Now 90% live past 55 yrs old Less then 10% reached 25 yrs old Chap 2 Population Envs 204 67
Public Health: One of the many past causes of high child mortality rates Chap 2 Population Envs 204 68
Recent Exponential Growth of World’s Population as countries enter Stage 2 and Stage 3 of the Demographic Transition HIGHLIGHTS IN WORLD POPULATION GROWTH 1 billion in 1804 2 billion in 1927 (123 years later) 3 billion in 1960 (33 years later) 4 billion in 1974 (14 years later) 5 billion in 1987 (13 years later) Chap 2 Population Envs 204 7. 1 billion in 2013 (23 years later) 69
Total Population of the World by Decade, 1950– 2050 u http: //www. infoplease. com/ipa/A 0762181. html Total world population (mid-year figures) Ten-year growth rate (%) 1950 2, 556, 000, 053 18. 9% 1960 3, 039, 451, 023 22. 0 1970 3, 706, 618, 163 20. 2 1980 4, 453, 831, 714 18. 5 1990 5, 278, 639, 789 15. 2 2000 6, 082, 966, 429 12. 6 20101 6, 848, 932, 929 10. 7 20201 7, 584, 821, 144 8. 7 20301 8, 246, 619, 341 7. 3 20401 8, 850, 045, 889 5. 6 20501 9, 346, 399, 468 — Year (historical and projected) The good news – Growth rate is in decline The bad news – we will try to add another 2. 5 bill by mid century. Mainly another couple Billion people in Africa Chap 2 Population Envs 204 70
Stabilization of World’s population is still over several generations away But different regions are impacted differently Chap 2 Population Envs 204 71
Guatemala Stage 2 Population Pyramids • Demonstrate where the population is by age cohort • Also can see Demographic Stage Mexico is now in Stage 3 where is Guatemala? Chap 2 Population Envs 204 72
USA – what Stage would you say this is? ? ? Chap 2 Population Envs 204 73
Stage 4: Sweden Demographic Indicators Birth Rate: 12 per thousand Total fertility rate: 1. 8 births Natural increase: 0. 1% per year 1990 -2000 Age structure: 18% under 15 yrs. age Sweden looks pretty constant between now and 2050 Chap 2 Population Envs 204 74
Coming Decline? Stage 5 Chap 2 Population Envs 204 75
Chap 2 Population Envs 204 76
Compare with 2016 Presidential voting pattern https: //www. nytimes. com/interactive/2018/up shot/election-2016 -voting-precinctmaps. html#4. 00/39. 76/-97. 27 Chap 2 Population Envs 204 77
Times are changing (always), might be a good idea to talk with one another… civilly Chap 2 Population Envs 204 78
Italy with declining population. Will there be a Stage 5? ? ? Demographic Indicators Birth Rate: 9 per thousand Total fertility rate: 1. 2 births Natural increase: -0. 1% per year 1990 -2000 Age structure: 14% under 15 yrs. age Chap 2 Population Envs 204 79
Japan, an upside down pyramid in the making? Population collapse? ? ? Chap 2 Population Envs 204 80
Infant Mortality & Fertility Rate Adjustments u As infant mortality drops so does family size and fertility rates Chap 2 Population Envs 204 81
Example of how families adjust to lower infant mortality rates with lower fertility rates. TFR This is a temporal trend diagram. Infant Mortality Rate per 1, 000 Result is a decline in CBR Both are declining together IMR Chap 2 Population Envs 204 82
How infant mortality and wealth effect demographics Chap 2 Population Envs 204 83
Spatial Trend Diagram: Countries with higher IM have higher Fertility Rates. Across countries both decline together Increasing income What does this mean? ? ? Chap 2 Population Envs 204 84
Comparative Temporal and Spatial Data Diagram What is occuring here? Speculate why. Chap 2 Population Envs 204 85
Comparison of Development and Wealth to Population Growth Rates across Countries Poorer CBR RNI Richer CDR Births are solid line, deaths dashed Note little difference in death rate, large difference in birth rate Result poorer countries grow faster, rich ones little to none, today even declines Chap 2 Population Envs 204 86
Additional Details on Mexico If you want more information on Mexico click below http: //www. un. org/esa/population/me etings/EGMPop. Age/Partida_Figures. p df Chap 2 Population Envs 204 87
Where is the World’s Population Growing? Declining? Chap 2 Population Envs 204 88
Chap 2 Population Envs 204 89
Chap 2 Population Envs 204 90
Chap 2 Population Envs 204 91
ONE LAST CONCEPT Chap 2 Population Envs 204 92
Dependency Ratio u Ratio of non-working population to working age population u Non-Workers are the young and aged retirees – young are usually 15 yrs old and below – retirees are usually 64 yrs old and above Chap 2 Population Envs 204 93
Dependency Ratio Cape Verde: Mostly Kids Chile: Kids still dominate Chap 2 Population Envs 204 Denmark: Split between kids & elderly 94
Pakistan’s High Dependency Ratio now and in the future based on lots of kids but few elderly. However note how the young population is expected to stabilize and elderly grow. Chap 2 Population Envs 204 95
Dependency Ratio Woes u. A © Copyright 2006, From The Wilderness Publications, www. fromthewilderness. com. All Rights Reserved. This story may NOT be posted on any Internet web site without express written permission. Contact admin@copvcia. com. May be circulated, distributed or transmitted for nonprofit purposes only. rising dependency ratio is also a concern in many countries that are facing aging populations, since it becomes difficult for pension and social security systems to provide to retirees. Chap 2 Population Envs 204 96
More on Dependency Chap 2 Population Envs 204 97
Japan showing its high number of dependants to working age population • lots of elderly (nearly black color) • Working age population (purple color) • few kids (dark purple color) Result is high Dependency Ratio Chap 2 Population Envs 204 98
VIDEOS TO LOOK AT Chap 2 Population Envs 204 99
Hans Rosling u Religion & Population as well as Peak Child and 11 billion future u https: //www. ted. com/talks/hans_ros ling_religions_and_babies? language =en Chap 2 Population Envs 204 100
Interesting Videos Hans Rosling on global population growth – TED Lecture http: //www. ted. com/talks/lang/eng/hans_rosling_ on_global_population_growth. html Chap 2 Population Envs 204 101
Interesting Videos Population divide – around the world http: //www. youtube. com/watch? v=Lygy. Rox. Rzy. E&feature=rel ated Right leaning Heritage Foundation -- Decline of Europe based on Demographic Collapse (go to minute 8: 00) http: //www. youtube. com/watch? v=xlk. EYo. KCk. A&feature=related An Egyptian take: Muslim majority in Europe in 20 years (in Arabic) http: //www. youtube. com/watch? v=CSWLLc 6 uik. E&feature=fv w A historical take: Demographic Transition in Europe; Mortality Decline – Yale University standard lectures http: //academicearth. org/lectures/mortality-decline-in-europe Chap 2 Population Envs 204 102
Let’s Play with the Data Chap 2 Population Envs 204 http: //www. gapminder. org / 103
A FEW STUDY QUESTIONS Chap 2 Population Envs 204 104
Study Questions: Population The following questions are to help you with the current notes and all the readings in this component of the course 1. a. b. c. d. e. Explain what is meant by each of the following terms: crude birth rate infant mortality rate dependency ratio Crude death rate Rate of Natural Increase 2. Name a country where the death rate has fallen rapidly since WWII. (i) For that country give reasons why the death rate has fallen. (ii) How has this change in death rate affected life expectancy? After: http: //www. getthatgrade. co. uk/issue_02/test. htm Chap 2 Population Envs 204 105
3. The diagram below shows a simplified version of the demographic transition model. (I) What was happening to the population total in Stage 2? (ii) What was happening to the population total in Stage 3? (iii) Name a country which has developed a policy to reduce its birth rate. (iv) Why was this policy needed? (v) Describe the policy. (vi) How successful has the policy been? Mention any problems that the policy has caused, as well as its successes. Chap 2 Population Envs 204 106
4. Should we be worried about private pensions in the future? What if a growing stock market is tied to a growing population and population declines? Chap 2 Population Envs 204 107
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