Polling Polls try to measure voter attitude andor

Polling Polls try to measure voter attitude and/or forecast a potential winner in an election.

87% say Bush is a bumbling moron Should you take this statistic at face value? NO ¡ What questions should come to mind? ¡ l l l Who was asked? How many people were asked? What question was asked? How was it answered? Were there data collecting errors?

The question was… I believe Bush is… A) a stud muffin. B) a bumbling moron. C) the best US President ever. http: //youtu. be/p. Wu. IEIBN 3 s. Y http: //youtu. be/Sm. IB 4 em_h. Io

“ 88% of Seniors in high school look forward to coming to school. ” • What were those questions again? ? • • • Who was asked? How many people were asked? What question was asked? How was it answered? Were there data collecting errors?

Do you like coming to school? • The question was asked to 100 honors students in the Ken-Ton School District.

“ 75% of people want to outlaw cell phones completely. ” • What were those questions again? ? • • • Who was asked? How many people were asked? What question was asked? How was it answered? Were there data collecting errors?

Should cell phones be outlawed completely? • This question was asked to 20 people in rural Arkansas.

Straw Poll • a group of people questioned informally to determine public opinion. • Examples: mail survey, “person-on-the-street” interviews, telephone call-ins, etc. • http: //youtu. be/7_pw 8 duz. GUg

Straw Polls • In the late 1800’s straw polls were first introduced by newspapers and magazines as a way to liven up their political coverage. • This type of poll does not give accurate data.

Scientific Poll • the determination of public opinion through precise sampling and statistical methods. • National Renowned Examples: • Gallup Poll • Harris Poll • Zogby Poll • http: //www. gallup. com/poll/election. aspx • http: //youtu. be/loo. Bg. Vh. Yd. Xw

The first step in scientific polling is to figure out the “universe”. • Universe: the population to be studied • If the universe is small, then you can survey everyone. • Example: Kenmore West Class of 2013 • If the universe is bigger, then you must use a sample. • Example: All of the graduating seniors in Western New York.

• “A cook does not have to drink an entire pot of soup to determine if it needs more seasoning; he merely takes a sip. ”

Let’s get scientific! • Sample: a small group of people who accurately represent a universe. • Random Sample: a sample chosen in such a way that every member of the universe has an equal chance of being selected. • Nationwide poll samples: 1500 -1600 people

Reliable polls must… • The questions must be unbiased and easily understood. • Results must be accurate and documented correctly and include the following… • the method of survey • the type of sample • the number of people asked • When the survey was completed

What is the purpose of polling? • Measure candidate popularity. • To satisfy the needs of an official • Get voter opinions on issues that affect candidates.

Exit Polls • Predict winners of political races based on post-voting interviews. • http: //youtu. be/SKRWMDud. C 6 k

5 Basic Steps for Poll Making • • 1. Define the universe to be surveyed (the whole population that the poll aims to measure) • • 2. Construct a sample (how would you choose a sample) • • 3. Prepare Valid Questions – at least five (ask objective questions, carefully worded, easy to understand) • • 4. Select and control how the poll will be taken (face-to-face, telephone, and mail) • • 5. Analyze and report your findings to the public (make a table or construct a chart to illustrate your results)