Political Polarization and the 2018 Midterm Elections Lee

Political Polarization and the 2018 Midterm Elections Lee Hannah, Ph. D. Assistant Professor of Political Science School of Public and International Affairs August 4, 2018

Outline • Defining Polarization • Searching for Polarization Among • Elites • Voters • Explaining Polarization • Polarization and the 2018 Midterms • Contextualizing Polarization

Defining Polarization

Simple Definition of Polarization • The v a s t and g r o w i n g gap between liberals and conservatives, Republicans and Democrats.

Polarization Among the Elites

Roll Call Voting in Congress

Network Diagram of Member Voting in U. S. House of Representatives (1949 -1971)

Network Diagram of Member Voting in U. S. House of Representatives (1973 -1995)

Network Diagram of Member Voting in U. S. House of Representatives (1997 -2011)

Confirmation votes on SCOTUS Justices

SCOTUS and Clerks

Evaluations of the President

Polarization Among the Masses

Before Looking at Mass Polarization…. Let’s take a test.

1 Government is almost always wasteful and inefficient. OR Government often does a better job than people give it credit for. 2 OR Government regulation of business usually does more harm than good. Poor people today have it easy because they can get government benefits without doing anything in return. The government should do more to help needy Americans, even if it means going into deeper debt. Racial discrimination is the reason why many black people can’t get ahead these days. Immigrants today strengthen our country because of their hard work and talents. 7 Government regulation of business is necessary to protect the public interest. Poor people have hard lives because government benefits don’t go far enough to help them live decently. The government today can’t afford to do much more to help the needy. Blacks who can’t get ahead in this country are mostly responsible for their own condition. Immigrants today are a burden on our country because they take our jobs, housing and health care. Good diplomacy is the best way to ensure peace. 8 Business corporations make too much profit. OR 9 Strict environmental laws and regulations cost too many jobs and hurt the economy. Homosexuality should be accepted by society. OR 3 4 5 6 10 OR OR OR The best way to ensure peace is through military strength. Most corporations make a fair and reasonable amount of profit. Stricter environmental laws and regulations are worth the cost. Homosexuality should be discouraged by society.

1 Government is almost always wasteful and inefficient. OR Government often does a better job than people give it credit for. 2 OR Government regulation of business usually does more harm than good. Poor people today have it easy because they can get government benefits without doing anything in return. The government should do more to help needy Americans, even if it means going into deeper debt. Racial discrimination is the reason why many black people can’t get ahead these days. Immigrants today strengthen our country because of their hard work and talents. 7 Government regulation of business is necessary to protect the public interest. Poor people have hard lives because government benefits don’t go far enough to help them live decently. The government today can’t afford to do much more to help the needy. Blacks who can’t get ahead in this country are mostly responsible for their own condition. Immigrants today are a burden on our country because they take our jobs, housing and health care. Good diplomacy is the best way to ensure peace. 8 Business corporations make too much profit. OR 9 Strict environmental laws and regulations cost too many jobs and hurt the economy. Homosexuality should be accepted by society. OR 3 4 5 6 10 OR OR OR For each answer you selected, score each as: -1 for a liberal response +1 for a conservative response The best way to ensure peace is through military strength. Most corporations make a fair and reasonable amount of profit. Stricter environmental laws and regulations are worth the cost. Homosexuality should be discouraged by society. THEN Sum your responses: Total should be between -10 and +10

After some arithmetic… • • • Consistently Conservative (+7 to +10) Mostly Conservative (+3 to +6) Mixed (-2 to +2) Mostly Liberal (-6 to -3) Consistently Liberal (-7 to -10)

Issue Position Polarization • “The first type is issue position polarization, characterized by an increase in the extremity of issue positions in the mass public. In a population undergoing issue position polarization, people will move from moderate positions on issues to more extreme positions, stating that they are more strongly committed to their chosen positions and allowing for less uncertainty in their responses. On a standard survey response to an issue prompt ranging from strongly support to strongly oppose, an issue-polarized public will move en masse toward the extremes of the response options, away from the more moderate responses in the middle of the scale. ” Source: Mason, L. (2013). The rise of uncivil agreement: Issue versus behavioral polarization in the American electorate. American Behavioral Scientist, 57(1), 140 -159.

Ideology and Party Identification

Less overlap in the political values of the Republicans and Democrats than in the past

The Role of Party Identification in Polarization: Partisan Sorting Source: Fiorina, M. P. , Abrams, S. J. , & Pope, J. (2005). Culture war? : The myth of a polarized America. New York: Pearson Longman.

Behavioral Polarization • “The second type is behavioral polarization, characterized by increasing partisan strength, partisan bias, activism, and anger. In a population undergoing behavioral polarization, citizens will report stronger affiliations with their chosen political party. These citizens will exhibit bias in evaluating the relative merits of the two parties, viewing their own party’s actions as more positive and praiseworthy than the opponent party’s actions, even when the two parties are behaving in similar ways. They will become more active in politics to defend the status of their party. Finally, citizens who have undergone behavioral polarization will feel and express more anger at members and officials of the opposing party, by means of public protest, communication with political representatives, and personal and online discourse. ” Source: Mason, L. (2013). The rise of uncivil agreement: Issue versus behavioral polarization in the American electorate. American Behavioral Scientist, 57(1), 140 -159.

Partisan Antipathy

Partisan Antipathy

Partisan Antipathy

Partisan Antipathy

Behavioral Polarization

Behavioral Polarization

Behavioral Polarization

Partisan Evaluations

Partisan Evaluations

Searching for causes of polarization

Candidates must appeal to the activists

Geographical Sorting

Geographical Sorting Blowout Counties in Presidential Elections

Partisan Media • Selective Exposure - online news users seek out information and commentary consistent with their political beliefs. • Individuals seek out “selfreinforcing viewpoints rather than be exposed to a common ‘nightly news’ broadcast” — this is sometimes called siloing. • The decreasing exposure to alternative views and the increasing buttressing of one’s own views has combined to create less sympathy for others’ views and less of an ability to understand others’ views.

Politics and Social Media This chart shows the likelihood of sharing partisan content increases as the user's own ideology tends further to the right or left. NBC News - https: //www. nbcnews. com/tech/ social-media/scientists-show-youmake-your-own-filter-bubblefacebook-n 355041 Bakshy, E. , Messing, S. , & Adamic, L. A. (2015). Exposure to ideologically diverse news and opinion on Facebook. Science, 348(6239), 1130 -1132.

Facebook is not unique

The Role of Social Media in Polarization “There are (at least) three separate factors that, once we’re on Facebook, determine how much we click on and read information that we already agree with. And two of them come down to our own choice — whom we friend (those who fill up our feeds with stuff they consider worth sharing) and what we click. So social media outlets like Facebook are not entirely off the hook; but then, neither are they necessarily any more blameworthy than cable. All of these media technologies act, in effect, as enablers of who we already are. And given our psychologies, this kind of enabling can be a dangerous thing. ” - Chris Mooney

What does all of this mean for the midterms?

2018 Midterm Elections What’s At Stake? • The entire House of Representatives (435 seats) • 1/3 of the Senate (33 seats) • 36 Governorships and state legislative seats in each of those states. What Needs to Happen for Balance of Power to Change? • Democrats would need to pick up 23 seats in the House. – For comparison: • 2010: GOP picked up 63 seats • 2006: Dems picked up 31 seats • 1994: GOP picked up 54 seats • Democrats would need to flip 3 seats in the Senate. – Tough map • Statehouses: Democrats have lost a lot of control over the last 10 years.

Presidential Coattails

Approval of President Trump The average of all polls that ask respondents whether they approve, disapprove, or have no opinion of how the President is doing his job. Inauguration August 1, 2018

The Generic Ballot Answer to which party respondent would support in a congressional election May 2017 August 1, 2018

Map of states with Senate elections in 2018 Democrats are up for reelection in states colored blue; Republicans up for reelection in states colored

Polarization and the Midterms: What to Expect • Candidates, on average, will run to the base • Republicans constrained by President Trump’s words and actions • Identity politics (left and right) • Divisive and fear-based rhetoric • Misinformation

That these [Russian meddling] efforts might have actually made a difference, or at least were intended to, highlights a force that was already destabilizing American democracy far more than any Russian-made fake news post: partisan polarization. “Partisanship can even alter memory, implicit evaluation, and even perceptual judgment, ” the political scientists Jay J. Van Bavel and Andrea Pereira wrote in a recent paper. “The human attraction to fake and untrustworthy news” — a danger cited by political scientists far more frequently than orchestrated meddling — “poses a serious problem for healthy democratic functioning. ” It has infected the American political system, weakening the body politic and leaving it vulnerable to manipulation. Russian misinformation seems to have exacerbated the symptoms, but laced throughout the indictment are reminders that the underlying disease, arguably far more damaging, is all American-made. Amanda Taub and Max Fisher

Some Historical Context

• If [ ] were elected, “murder, robbery, rape, adultery and incest will be openly taught and practiced… The soil will be soaked with blood. ”

• If Thomas Jefferson were elected, “murder, robbery, rape, adultery and incest will be openly taught and practiced… The soil will be soaked with blood. ” – The Connecticut Currant, 1800

Proceed With Caution • “The politics of the 1790 s was a truly cacophonous affair. Previous historians have labeled it “the Age of Passion” for good reason, for in terms of shrill accusatory rhetoric, flamboyant displays of ideological intransigence, intense personal rivalries, and hyperbolic claims of imminent catastrophe, it has no equal in American history. The political dialogue within the highest echelon of the revolutionary generation was a decade-long shouting match. ” – Joseph Ellis (p. 16)

Moving Forward • Polarization is here to stay for the time being. • Some manifestations of polarization (issue polarization) are healthier for a democracy than others (partisan antipathy). • Structural forces make undoing polarization difficult. • Do your part in having constructive dialogue.

“Seeking common ground becomes more difficult once political opponents see each other as the enemy, in moral terms, rather than as misguided patriots. ” – Bobby Jindal

Thank You! Lee. hannah@wright. edu