PHERPP Meeting 3 5 December 2007 WMO Geneva

PHERPP Meeting （3 -5 December 2007) WMO (Geneva) Asian Precipitation -- Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation of the Water Resources (APHRODITE’s Water Resources) Global Environmental Research Fund by the Ministry of Environment, Japan (Project B 062 Approved as a three year project; May 2006 – March 2009) Interim evaluation – A (it may continue 2 more years) Akiyo Yatagai１, Akio Kitoh２, Kenji Kamiguchi２, Osamu Arakawa 2 , Haruko Kawamoto１, Hisahiro Takashima１, Tsugihiro Watanabe１, Jumpei Kubota１, Makoto Taniguchi １, Shinjiro Kanae 3 1. 2. 3. Research Institute for Humanity and Nature (RIHN), Kyoto, Japan Meteorological Research Institute (MRI), Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), Tsukuba, Japan Institute for Industrial Science, University of Tokyo, Japan

Background Regional impact of the global warming is argued by using high-resolution climate models. • Model validation: High resolution・Accuracy（Quantity) • Statistical downscaling：Long-term data • Climate impact on hydrological resources: Grid precipitation data • Extreme events：High resolution・Accuracy・Long-term data • Hydrological resources over the mountains: grid precipitation data＋snow accumulation＋ temperature Do we have sufficient data?

Grid precipitation data used for model validation Data set Source Time Horizontal resolution Global Land climatology 0. 5 deg Coverage Legates and Willmott Rain gauge GPCP Merged (GTS, IR, Global monthly MW) CMAP GPCP_pen Merged Global pentad CMAP_pen GPCP 1 DD IR Global daily CRU Rain gauge Global Land monthly PREC/L PR, TMI, VIRS 37 N-37 S Path TRMM 3 B 42（Ver 6) 50 N-50 S 3 -hrly CMORPH MW+IR 60 N-60 S 30 min GSMa. P_TMI TRMM/TMI 40 N-40 S Daily GSMa. P_MVK Regional East Asia Precipita （Xie et al. 2007) APHRODITE tion analysis India Reanalysis ECMWF JRA NCEP MW+IR Rain gauge 60 N-60 S Regionsl Asia Rain gauge Atmospheric observation＋ 4 DDA(model） Regional Global 1979 - 2. 5 1979 - 1 4. 3 km(PR) 0. 25 19971900 -1998 1948 -2001 1997. 12199820021998 -2005 0. 1 2005. 7 0. 5 1978 -2003. 7 0. 05（clim） （1961 -2003 CHN） 0. 5 daily 6 -hrly 1921 -1980 2. 5 hrly daily Period 1978 -2004 1 1951 -2004 0. 5～ 2. 5 1957 -2002 19791948 -

Can we use satellite-based daily precipitation data to discuss extreme events? Daily Precipitation for June to August, 2000 at Kagoshima (mm/day) Satellite-based “observation” underestimates Heavy precipitation compared to rain-gauge-based Observation (Radar-AMe. DAS) 赤: Radar-AMe. DAS 青: GPCP-1 DD 緑: TRMM 3 B 42 Satellite based rainfall estimate is not sufficient to validate extreme precipitation events simulated by high resolution models

East Asia rain gauge based analysis of daily precipitation Daily grid precipitation data - 0. 5 degree -1978 -2003 (Jul. ) -Information of “Number of Gauges” Available from http: //www. chikyu. ac. jp/precip/ data/EAG. htm Reference Xie, P. , A. Yatagai, M. Chen, T. Hayasaka, Y. Fukushima, C. Liu and S. Yang (2006) JHM (in press)

Strategy to Define Analysis of Daily Precipitation Step 1: Constructing analyzed fields of daily precipitation climatology; Step 2: Computing analyzed fields of ratio of daily observation to daily climatology for the target day; Step 3: Defining analysis of daily precipitation by multiplying the daily climatology with the daily ratio; (Xie et al. , 2007)

Purpose of this study • • Based on the Xie et al. (2007) algorithm, collecting more rain-gauge data over Asia, discussing with potential users, We create daily grid precipitation data over Asia (mainly gauge-based)

Data Collection Time series Blue：GTS Black：Pre-compiled dataset Red：Individual collection

Small problems in EA V 0409 original 0. 05 deg anal ratio 0 10 20 30 40 50 0 1000 2000 3000 0 climatology 5000 10000 0 1 10 Abnormal large values are included over Philippines and South Asia. Some suspicious values are included in the GTS data 100 Add Off-line Data

Input more rain gauges GTS 920 station V 0409 1400 stations V 0707 6030 stations

The latest version of daily grid precipitation over the Monsoon Asia (July 1998)

User Email Address Data Download

TRMM Precipitation Radar (PR) Ver. 5 Monthly mean rain rate Himalayas China India SE Asia

Himalayas China GAME enhanced EAanal/ GAME EA analysis PR V 5 India SE Asia PR V 6

Himalayas China PR V 5 India SE Asia PR V 5 Rain-gauge (GAME Enhanced)

East Asia Analysis Climatology (0. 05 deg)

Information to the modelers Rain-gauge 0. 05 deg clim 20 km model GPCP 1 DD Yatagai, Xie and Kitoh (2005)

Discussion with local policy makers; Data collection and Capacity Building TURKEY トルコ水利庁（DSI）講演 Trrkey（DSI） IRAN IRIMO（気象研究所） INDIA タミールナドゥ農業大学 PHILIPPINES PAGASA(気象庁） データ提供（or discount）の見返り：共同研究(論文)・指導しに行く・若い学生を学ばせる

Russia Middle East Asia Monsoon Asia

Middle East version and model validation mm/mon mm/day Rain gauge-based climatology(upper） TRMM/PR composite（lower） For December Yatagai, Kimura, Kitoh, Watanabe (2006) Yatagai, Xie and Alpert (2007) Kitoh, Yatagai and Alpert (2007) Proceedings for International Symposium on Water and Land Management for Sustainable Irrigated Agriculture, Turkey

• Number of data is decreasing…?

Russia and Central Asia Observation of former USSR Grid product • NCDC dataset 9813 is useful. • Collections of rain gauges (Groisman and Rankova, 2001; Bogdanova et al. , 2002)

Intercomparison with other data

Summary • We upgraded EA analysis (Xie et al. , 2007) by inputting more rain-gauges over the monsoon Asia (1978 -2003). • We created daily grid precipitation data over the Middle East. • QC (using TRMM etc) is on the way. • We are collecting observation data from Russia as well as the Central Asia. • We start validating of model results as well as satellite products. • We are going to create long-term data (1961 -, 1930 s-) • 0. 25 degree products will be created in the next version. • Collaborations are welcome!

Publications • • Yatagai, A. (2007): Interannual variation of summertime precipitation over the Qilian Mountains in Northwest China, Bulletin of Glaciological Research, 24, 1 -11. Yatagai, A. and Xie, P, 2006: Utilization of a rain-gauge-based daily precipitation dataset over Asia for validation of precipitation derived from TRMM/PR and JRA-25. SPIE 060453, doi: 10. 1117/12. 723829. Xie, P. , A. Yatagai, M. Chen, T. Hayasaka, Y. Fukushima, C. Liu and Y. Song (2007): A Gauge-Based Analysis of Daily Precipitation over East Asia. J. Hydrometeor. 8, 607 -627. Yatagai, A. , N. Yamazaki and T. Kurino (2007): The products and validation of GAME reanalysis and JRA-25 Part 1: Surface Fluxes, Hydrological Processes, 21, 2061 -2072. Kitoh, A. and S. Kusunoki (2007): East Asian summer monsoon simulation by a 20 -km mesh AGCM. Climate Dynamics (in press). Yatagai, A. , P. Xie and P. Alpert (2007): Development of a daily grid precipitation data set: Toward evaluation of global warming effects on water resources in the East Mediterranean, Advance in Geophysics (submitted, after 1 st review). Geethalakshmi, V. , A. Yatagai, K. Palanisamy and C. Umetsu (2007): Impact of ENSO and the Indian Ocean Dipole on the Northeast Monsoon Rainfall of Tamil Nadu state in India. Hydrological Processes (Submitted, after 2 nd review). Kitoh, A. Yatagai, P. Alpert (2007): First evidence that the ancient “Fertile Crescent” will disappear in this century, Suisui Hydrological Research Letter (submitted).