Perspectiva del Sistema Bancario Mexicano Solicitud de Comentarios

Perspectiva del Sistema Bancario Mexicano Solicitud de Comentarios sobre la Propuesta de Nueva Metodología de Bancos David Olivares VP-SCO / Felipe Carvallo VP-SA Moody’s de México Seminario Anual - Septiembre 2014

Agenda Parte 1. Perspectiva del Sistema Bancario: México 1. Factores de Calificación Clave para la Perspectiva Estable Parte 2. Solicitud de Comentarios: Propuesta de Nueva Metodología de Bancos 1. Visión General 2. Estructura de las Evaluaciones del Riesgo Crediticio Base de Bancos (BCA) 3. Apoyo y Análisis Estructural 4. Resumen y Análisis de Impacto Preliminar Moody’s de México Conferencia Anual Septiembre 2014

Parte 1 Perspectiva del Sistema Bancario: México Moody’s de México Conferencia Anual Septiembre 2014

Universo Calificado de Bancos de Moody’s de México Conferencia Anual Septiembre 2014 4

1 Factores de Calificación Clave para la Perspectiva Estable Moody’s de México Conferencia Anual Septiembre 2014

La perspectiva para el sistema bancario ha sido estable desde el 2010 Ambiente Positivo + Las reformas mejoran los prospectos económicos. El PIB potencial eventualmente alcanzará el 3%-4% Operativo (2%-3% antes de las reformas). Las reformas, sin embargo, tomarán tiempo para dar frutos. Calidad de Estable Activos y Capital Rentabilidad Estable y Eficiencia Fondeo y Liquidez Estable Apoyo Sistémico Estable + Bajas tasas de interés e inflación apoyarán la demanda crediticia, ingresos y calidad de activos. +/- Cambo en mezcla de activos, disminuye la exposición a riesgo gubernamental y aumentan creditos mas rentables (Py. MEs, hipotecas y consumo). Sin embargo, estos créditos consumen más capital y requieren más provisiones. - Concentración en créditos corporativos grandes son un riesgo latente. La morosidad se estabilizará en niveles relativamente elevados, reflejando la continua expansión en los segmentos de mayor riesgo. + El capital y las reservas son adecuadas para proteger contra riesgos crediticios. = El amplio MIN es resultado de depósitos estables de bajo costo y poder de fijación de precios. Los márgenes se mantendrán estable: balance entre enfoque activos de mayor rendimiento y disminución de tasas de interés. - Los costos de provisiones se mantendrán altos a medida que los bancos expanden la cartera de consumo y Py. MEs. = Las ganancias en eficiencia serán limitadas mientras los bancos invierten en actualizar su infraestructura. = Los bancos se benefician de depósitos estables en moneda local (60% de los pasivos). La dependencia en fondeo de mercado es moderada, limitando el riesgo de refinanciamiento. = La tenencia de valores gubernamentales líquidos ha disminuido, pero sigue alta y continuará reforzando la resistencia a choques de liquidez. + La adopción del requerimiento de indicadores de liquidez de Basilea III (LCR, cobertura) en 2015 será suave y no limitará los planes de expansión de préstamos, particularmente en los grandes bancos. = Esperamos que la capacidad y la voluntad del gobierno para apoyar al sistema bancario seguirán siendo altas, sobre todo para los bancos de importancia sistémica. Moody’s de México Conferencia Anual Septiembre 2014

Ambiente Operativo | Calidad de Activos y Capital | Rentabilidad y Eficiencia | Fondeo y Liquidez | Apoyo Sistémico Las Reformas » Las reformas estructurales mejoran las perspectivas económicas de largo plazo. » La reforma financiera incluye medidas para aumentar el acceso al crédito y simplificar el proceso de adjudicación de garantías. » El impacto de las reformas será particularmente significativo en energía y telecomunicaciones. » Las inversiones previstas en estos sectores generarán oportunidades de negocio directas e indirectas para los bancos. » Las reformas, sin embargo, tomarán tiempo para dar resultados. » Burós de Crédito / Banca de Desarrollo / Juzgados Especializados Moody’s de México Conferencia Anual Septiembre 2014

Ambiente Operativo | Calidad de Activos y Capital | Rentabilidad y Eficiencia | Fondeo y Liquidez | Apoyo Sistémico Algunos indicadores macro son estables o empiezan su recuperación, a pesar de la baja actividad económica Tasa de Desocupación IGAE* 115 110 5% 105 100 IGAE e Índice de Confianza del Consumidor, (Puntos Base) 4% 95 May-14 Mar-14 Jan-14 Nov-13 Sep-13 Jul-13 3% May-13 90 Mar-13 Tasa de Desocupación, (%) 6% Índice de Confianza del Consumidor 85 * Índice Global de Actividad Económica Fuente: Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (INEGI) Moody’s de México Conferencia Anual Septiembre 2014

Ambiente Operativo | Calidad de Activos y Capital | Rentabilidad y Eficiencia | Fondeo y Liquidez | Apoyo Sistémico El crédito bancario/PIB esta aumentando, pero aun por debajo del promedio de la región Préstamos Bancarios / PIB 90% Dic-13 80% Dic-04 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Chile Brasil Colombia Perú México Argentina Nota: Información de México a diciembre 2008 y diciembre 2013. Fuente: Moody's, Superintendencia de Bancos e Instituciones Financieras (Chile), Banco Central do Brasil, Superintendencia Financiera de Colombia, CNBV, Superintendencia de Banca y Seguros (Perú), Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI) y el Banco Mundial Moody’s de México Conferencia Anual Septiembre 2014

Ambiente Operativo | Calidad de Activos y Capital | Rentabilidad y Eficiencia | Fondeo y Liquidez | Apoyo Sistémico Cambio gradual en la composición de activos Gobierno 13% Institucion es Financiera s Comercial 4% 44% Jun-14 Vivienda Exposición a Riesgo Gubernamental / Activos. . . 17% 38% Consumo 22% 33% 28% Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Nota: Exposición a Riesgo Gubernamental = Bonos Gubernamentales (90% de Inversiones en Valores) + Cartera de Crédito a Entidades Gubernamentales Fuente: Comisión Nacional Bancaria y de Valores (CNBV) Moody’s de México Conferencia Anual Septiembre 2014

Ambiente Operativo | Calidad de Activos y Capital | Rentabilidad y Eficiencia | Fondeo y Liquidez | Apoyo Sistémico Comercial 30% Consumo Vivienda Estados y Municipios Cartera Total 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Tasas de Crecimiento Nominal (12 Meses) por Tipo de Préstamo, (%) Hipotecas y créditos a Py. MEs y consumo son críticos para el crecimiento Fuente: Comisión Nacional Bancaria y de Valores (CNBV) Moody’s de México Conferencia Anual Septiembre 2014

Ambiente Operativo | Calidad de Activos y Capital | Rentabilidad y Eficiencia | Fondeo y Liquidez | Apoyo Sistémico Calidad de activos relativamente estable; balance de crecimiento económico y enfoque en créditos de mayor riesgo Cartera Total Comercial Consumo 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Índice de Morosidad, (%) 6% Fuente: Comisión Nacional Bancaria y de Valores (CNBV) Moody’s de México Conferencia Anual Septiembre 2014

Ambiente Operativo | Calidad de Activos y Capital | Rentabilidad y Eficiencia | Fondeo y Liquidez | Apoyo Sistémico A medida que los bancos presten más, utilizarán más capital, pero el capital básico es fuerte. . . Índice de Capitalización (ICAP) Indicador Regulatorio de Capital Básico (Tier 1) 17. 0% 16. 0% 15. 0% 13. 0% Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 14. 0% Fuente: Banco de México (Banxico) Moody’s de México Conferencia Anual Septiembre 2014

Ambiente Operativo | Calidad de Activos y Capital | Rentabilidad y Eficiencia | Fondeo y Liquidez | Apoyo Sistémico … y proporciona una amplia capacidad de absorción de pérdidas 14. 1% 14% 12. 7% -3. 9% 12% Escenario Adverso +2. 1% +1. 3% -0. 8% 11. 4% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Pérdida Índice de capital básico Esperada en Cartera (Tier 1) Ajustado Reservas para Riesgos de Crédito Utilidades Futuras (12 meses) Índice de Crecimiento de Activos capital básico (Tier 1) Sujetos a Escenario Riesgo Adverso Fuente: Moody’s de México Conferencia Anual Septiembre 2014

Ambiente Operativo | Calidad de Activos y Capital | Rentabilidad y Eficiencia | Fondeo y Liquidez | Apoyo Sistémico Amplio margen a pesar de menores tasa de interés. » Pricing power » Mezcla de cartera Costo de Fondeo 6. 0% 5. 8% 2. 50% 5. 6% MIN, (%) 5. 4% 2. 25% 5. 2% 2. 00% Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Costo de Fondeo, (%) 2. 75% 5. 0% Fuente: Moody’s, Comisión Nacional Bancaria y de Valores (CNBV) y Banco Nacional de México (Banxico) Moody’s de México Conferencia Anual Septiembre 2014

Ambiente Operativo | Calidad de Activos y Capital | Rentabilidad y Eficiencia | Fondeo y Liquidez | Apoyo Sistémico Alto gasto en provisiones por enfoque a créditos de mayor riesgo 55% Provisiones / Utilidad Antes de Impuestos y Provisiones 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 20% Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 25% Fuente: Comisión Nacional Bancaria y de Valores (CNBV) and Banco de México (Banxico) Moody’s de México Conferencia Anual Septiembre 2014

Ambiente Operativo | Calidad de Activos y Capital | Rentabilidad y Eficiencia | Fondeo y Liquidez | Apoyo Sistémico A pesar de una mayor proporción de bonos en el fondeo, el riesgo de refinanciamiento es limitado 120% Vista y Ahorro Plazo Interbancarios Plazo (MD) Bonos Bancarios Cartera / Depósitos 115% Mezcla de Fondeo, (%) 100% 110% 80% 60% 105% Cart 40% 100% 20% 0% Jan-09 95% Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Fuente: Comisión Nacional Bancaria y de Valores (CNBV) y Banco de México (Banxico) Moody’s de México Conferencia Anual Septiembre 2014

Ambiente Operativo | Calidad de Activos y Capital | Rentabilidad y Eficiencia | Fondeo y Liquidez | Apoyo Sistémico Disposición para apoyar a bancos de importancia sistémica en caso de estrés se mantiene* Evaluaciones del Riesgo Crediticio Base (BCA, por sus siglas en inglés) Fuente: Moody's Volkswagen México BTMUM Ve por Más Barclays México Ban. Regio Azteca Ban. Bajío Interacciones Scotiabank México Deutsche México HSBC México Banorte Santander México Apoyo Sistémico Banamex C Apoyo de Casa Matriz Bancomer Aaa 21 Aa 1 20 Aa 2 19 Aa 3 18 17 A 1 16 A 2 15 A 3 14 Baa 1 13 Baa 2 12 Baa 3 11 Ba 1 10 Ba 2 9 Ba 3 8 B 1 7 6 B 2 5 B 3 Caa 1 4 Caa 2 3 Caa 3 2 1 Ca * Probable cambio – RFC – cambio más significativo Moody’s de México Conferencia Anual Septiembre 2014

Parte 2 Solicitud de Comentarios: Propuesta de Nueva Metodología de Bancos Moody’s de México Conferencia Anual Septiembre 2014

1 Vision General Moody’s de México Conferencia Anual Septiembre 2014

Panorama | Riesgo Crediticio Base | Apoyo y Análisis Estructural | Impacto General Request for Comment Highlights Key proposed changes to our methodology respond to three core objectives: 1. Build on the strengths of the existing methodology: Ø New scorecard focuses on a relatively small number of simple, predictive metrics Ø Backtesting has shown these to be strongly predictive of failure or the need for support Ø Analysts and rating committees to consider additional ratios as relevant for each institution Ø 2. 3. Ø New ‘Macro Profile’ derived from Sovereign Rating governs calibration Ø Each financial factor scored as a function of both a financial ratio and the Macro Profile Forward-looking expectations and scenario analysis fully integrated into the Scorecard Respond to the fundamental shift in the way failing banks are resolved or recapitalized in certain jurisdictions Ø Distinguish loss severity by individual creditor classes for banks subject to resolution Ø Recognise that deposits may be preferred to senior unsecured debt in resolution Refine underlying concepts of Joint-Default Approach Ø “Systemic support indicators” replaced by the sovereign rating Moody’s de México Conferencia Anual Septiembre 2014 21

Panorama | Riesgo Crediticio Base | Apoyo y Análisis Estructural | Impacto General Proposed Rating Structure Sequential approach maintained Introduction of a Macro Profile LGF liability analysis in Operational Resolution Regimes Elimination of Systemic Support Indicator Moody’s de México Conferencia Anual Septiembre 2014 22

2 Estructura de las Evaluaciones del Riesgo Crediticio Base de Bancos (BCA) Moody’s de México Conferencia Anual Septiembre 2014

Panorama | Riesgo Crediticio Base | Apoyo y Análisis Estructural | Impacto General BCA Structure Our bank Baseline Credit Assessments describe the probability of a bank defaulting on any of its rated instruments, in the absence of external support. There are three stages to the BCA analysis: 1. Macro Profile: Reflects systemic risks (common to all banks in a given system) 2. Financial Profile: Key bank-specific financial metrics 3. Qualitative Adjustments: Additional qualitative and quantitative factors Moody’s de México Conferencia Anual Septiembre 2014 24

Panorama | Riesgo Crediticio Base | Apoyo y Análisis Estructural | Impacto General 1. Macro Profile builds on three sovereign scorecard components, and three banking components. 1. Systemic performance correlated with macroeconomic conditions. Measured by GDP growth/volatility, Global Competitiveness Index. KEY: Sovereign Component Banking Component 1 2 3 Economic Strength Institutional Strength * Susceptibilty to Event Risk 2. Banks depend on legal framework to enforce contracts. Measured by WB Corruption and Rule of Law Indices, inflation level/volatility. 3. Banking system exposed to same external and political vulnerabilities as sovereign. Measured by External Vulnerability indicator, domestic political risk. 1 Credit Conditions Banking Country Risk Unadjusted Banking System Macro Profile As Credit Conditions deteriorate, weight of Banking Country Risk decreases Banking System Macro Profile Rapid credit expansion can be a significant leading indicator of credit quality problems. Measured by level and growth rate of Credit to GDP 2 3 Funding Conditions Adjustment Industry Structure Adjustment 2. Funding problems can both reflect and create systemic vulnerabilities. Measured by market funding measures/cost, central bank balance sheets. 3. Under/over capacity or competitive distortions (government interference) may indicate strengths or vulnerabilities. Moody’s de México Conferencia Anual Septiembre 2014 25

Panorama | Riesgo Crediticio Base | Apoyo y Análisis Estructural | Impacto General Macro Profile Rank Ordering Moody’s macro profiles for selected economies: Selected Macro Profile Rank Ordering Country Australia United States Canada France Germany United Kingdom Chile Korea Saudi Arabia Mexico Brazil Panama Uruguay Italy Spain Peru Colombia Costa Rica Russia Dominican Republic Bolivia Argentina Ukraine Egypt Cyprus Banking Country Risk Credit Conditions Funding Conditions Industry Structure Banking System Macro Profile Aaa - Aa 2 Neutral -1 1 Very Strong Aaa - Aa 2 Weak + 1 -1 Very Strong - Aaa - Aa 2 Weak 0 1 Very Strong - Aaa - Aa 2 Neutral -1 0 Very Strong - Aaa - Aa 2 Neutral 0 -1 Very Strong - Aa 1 - Aa 3 Weak 0 0 Strong + Aa 1 - Aa 3 Weak + -1 0 Strong + Aa 3 - A 2 Weak + 0 0 Strong A 1 – A 3 Neutral 0 0 Strong A 2 – Baa 1 Weak + 0 0 Moderate + A 3 – Baa 2 Weak 0 -1 Moderate - A 2 - Baa 1 Neutral -1 -1 Moderate A 2 - Baa 1 Weak -1 0 Moderate Neutral 0 0 Moderate + 0 0 Moderate Baa 1 - Baa 3 Baa 2 - Ba 1 Neutral Baa 2 – Ba 1 Weak +l 0 -1 Moderate - Baa 1 - Baa 3 Neutral -1 0 Moderate Ba 1 – Ba 3 Weak - 0 -1 Weak Ba 3 – B 2 Neutral 0 0 Weak B 3 – Caa 2 Weak 0 0 Very Weak + B 3 - Caa 2 Weak + 0 0 Very Weak + B 2 - Caa 1 Very Weak + -1 0 Very Weak B 2 - Caa 1 Very Weak -3 0 Very Weak - Moody’s de México Conferencia Anual Septiembre 2014 26

Panorama | Riesgo Crediticio Base | Apoyo y Análisis Estructural | Impacto General 2. Financial Profile In our assessment of a bank’s financial profile we score key risks and their mitigants Tangible assets = total assets less derivatives less goodwill and other intangibles Tangible banking assets = total assets less derivatives less goodwill and other intangibles less insurance investments Moody’s de México Conferencia Anual Septiembre 2014 27

Panorama | Riesgo Crediticio Base | Apoyo y Análisis Estructural | Impacto General Initial BCA score derived from Financial & Macro Profiles Rating of banks in weak systems are less sensitive to their individual financial metrics and more reflective of changes in the macro environment. Example: Bank’s Financial Ratio Country’s Macro Profile Initial Score Bank in Country 1 Moderate Strong baa 2 Bank in Country 2 Moderate Weak b 1 VERY STRONG + VERY WEAK - Moody’s de México Conferencia Anual Septiembre 2014 28

Panorama | Riesgo Crediticio Base | Apoyo y Análisis Estructural | Impacto General Assigned scores incorporate forecasts, auxiliary ratios, qualitative aspects & stress scenarios. Example Scorecard: Financial Score incorporating factors Macro Profile Qualitative factors quantified Moody’s de México Conferencia Anual Septiembre 2014 29

Panorama | Riesgo Crediticio Base | Apoyo y Análisis Estructural | Impacto General 3. Qualitative Adjustments We may adjust our initial BCA score by one or more notches if we judge any of these factors has a material bearing on the bank’s overall risk profile. 1 2 3 Business diversification Opacity and complexity Corporate behavior Gauges a bank’s sensitivity to deterioration in a single business line. An institution’s riskiness increases with its complexity, other things being equal. A bank’s creditworthiness can be influenced by what we term its “corporate behavior”, which can also signal other concerns. + Positive adjustments None. Rare one-notch increases, e. g. from sustained exemplary stewardship over time with tangible impact on the risk profile + Positive adjustments E. g. a one-notch increase for a firm with a diverse range of business activities that provide an overall reliable earnings stream. - Negative adjustments E. g. a one-notch decrease for a bank which derives more than about three-quarters of its revenues or earnings from a single business line. - Negative adjustments E. g. a one-notch decrease (or more in extreme cases) if a bank has numerous business lines across many geographies and legal entities, significant exposure to derivatives, complex legal structure, large, complex and / or long-dated exposures to other financial institutions. - Negative adjustments One or more notch decreases considering the following factors: key man risk, insider and related party risks, strategy and management, dividend policy, and compensation policy. Moody’s de México Conferencia Anual Septiembre 2014 30

3 Apoyo y Análisis Estructural Moody’s de México Conferencia Anual Septiembre 2014

Panorama | Riesgo Crediticio Base | Apoyo y Análisis Estructural | Impacto General Support & Structural Analysis consists of 3 elements 1. Affiliate Support: An entity may be supported by other entities within a group 2. Loss Given Failure (LGF): Liability analysis to assess the impact of a failure of the bank on its various debt classes absent government support 3. Government Support: An entity may be supported by local or the federal government A major innovation is the introduction of LGF » How likely is a bank to be supported by affiliates? » Determines the Adjusted BCA Better distinguishing types of debt protecting depositors Lose s determined by the tranche of debt subordinated to each class » The risk that different creditors are exposed to in the event of the failure of a bank, absent support » The extent to which risks to creditors are mitigated by public support » This enables us to distinguish between the BCA, bank senior unsecured, bank holding company senior unsecured, and deposits And the size of each debt tranches Moody’s de México Conferencia Anual Septiembre 2014 32

Panorama | Riesgo Crediticio Base | Apoyo y Análisis Estructural | Impacto General Affiliate Support No proposed change to our approach to assessing Affiliate Support Variables remain as follows: 1 Unsupported rating (BCA) 2 Creditworthiness 3 Support probability 4 Dependence (correlation) These will determine a range of potential uplift under our Joint-Default Approach (JDA) Probability of Default (PD) = (1 - Support Probability) * BCA + Support Probability * ((Dependence * min (BCA, Support Provider rating) + (1 - Dependence ) * BCA * Support Provider rating) Moody’s de México Conferencia Anual Septiembre 2014 33

Panorama | Riesgo Crediticio Base | Apoyo y Análisis Estructural | Impacto General Loss Given Failure (LGF) Liability Analysis For banks in countries with Operational Resolution Regimes (ORR), we apply LGF liability analysis; elsewhere, we use current notching. ORRs allow banks to selectively default on certain instruments outside of bankruptcy Operational Resolution Regime? YES Loss Given Failure (LGF) Liability Analysis » Specific legislation enabling orderly resolution of failed bank » Clarity of impact on depositors and other creditors » Reduced probability of government support for senior creditors WHERE: European Union, United States (Title I and Title II), Switzerland, Others (esp. G-20) likely to follow NO Notching Senior unsecured rating: Adjusted BCA Dated subordinated debt rating: Adjusted BCA -1 » Expectation that the largest, most systemically important banks are typically resolved through support rather than bail-in » Statutory alternative is bankruptcy, but resolution approaches tend to be defined only in a crisis WHERE: Everywhere else, for now (i. e. Latin America) Moody’s de México Conferencia Anual Septiembre 2014 34

Panorama | Riesgo Crediticio Base | Apoyo y Análisis Estructural | Impacto General Loss Given Failure Liability Analysis We combine our Macro Profile and the resolution approach to determine the median loss rate We identify affected debt and deposits. However, we recognize that the bank’s balance sheet at the time of failure may differ materially from its current structure. We look at the hierarchy of claims (subordination) assuming liquidation Impact of the failure of the bank on its various debt classes in the absence of any government support Moody’s de México Conferencia Anual Septiembre 2014 35

Panorama | Riesgo Crediticio Base | Apoyo y Análisis Estructural | Impacto General Government Support Government support is assessed for each creditor class and uplift derived using JDA. NEW We will use sovereign rating rather than systemic support indicators (SSI) 95 -100% Government Backed 70 -95% Very High 50 -70% High 30 -50% Moderate 0 -30% Low Updated from current 100% only 90% Very High 70% High 50% Moderate Notching within the JDA range is a Rating Committee judgment Government support does not necessarily apply to all debt classes, even in countries without Resolution Regimes. Moody’s de México Conferencia Anual Septiembre 2014 36

Panorama | Riesgo Crediticio Base | Apoyo y Análisis Estructural | Impacto General Capacity of Country to Provide Support Government support capacity is assessed by its rating. » Rationale for the change being proposed ― Liquidity crisis will often degrade into a solvency crisis, as seen during crisis ― Central bank liquidity support can keep banks afloat, but solvency issues require recapitalization, which is beyond a central bank’s powers ― Also, as governments become increasingly involved in the rescue of banks, the country’s capacity to bail-out its system converges towards the government’s fiscal capacity, and thus its bond rating Moody’s de México Conferencia Anual Septiembre 2014 37

4 Resumen y Análisis de Impacto Preliminar Moody’s de México Conferencia Anual Septiembre 2014

Panorama | Riesgo Crediticio Base | Apoyo y Análisis Estructural | Impacto General Impact Analysis: Baseline Credit Assessment We expect impact on baseline credit assessments (BCAs) to be limited. Moody’s. FINAL de México Conferencia Anual Septiembre 2014 NUMBERS ARE NOT 39

Panorama | Riesgo Crediticio Base | Apoyo y Análisis Estructural | Impacto General Impact Analysis: Local Currency Deposit Ratings Moody’s. FINAL de México Conferencia Anual Septiembre 2014 NUMBERS ARE NOT 40

Panorama | Riesgo Crediticio Base | Apoyo y Análisis Estructural | Impacto General Local Currency Senior Unsecured Debt LGF positively affects senior debt ratings in Europe, but negatively in the US Moody’s. FINAL de México Conferencia Anual Septiembre 2014 NUMBERS ARE NOT 41

www. moodys. com/ratingbanks Ciudad de México: David Olivares Villagómez VP-Senior Credit Officer +52 (55) 1253 -5705 david. olivares@moodys. com Busy Juárez Huerdo Associate Analyst +52 (55) 1253 -5731 busy. juarez@moodys. com Vicente Gómez Facio Associate Analyst +52 (55) 1553 -5304 vicente. gomez@moodys. com Felipe Carvallo Mendoza VP- Senior Analyst +52 (55) 1253 -5738 felipe. carvallo@moodys. com Lauren Kleiman Tobal Associate Analyst +52 (55) 1253 -5734 lauren. kleiman@moodys. com Aaron Freedman Associate Managing Director +52 (55) 1253 -5713 aaron. freedman@moodys. com Moody’s de México Conferencia Anual Septiembre 2014

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By continuing to access this document from within Australia, you represent to MOODY’S that you are, or are accessing the document as a representative of, a “wholesale client” and that neither you nor the entity you represent will directly or indirectly disseminate this document or its contents to “retail clients” within the meaning of section 761 G of the Corporations Act 2001. MOODY’S credit rating is an opinion as to the creditworthiness of a debt obligation of the issuer, not on the equity securities of the issuer or any form of security that is available to retail clients. It would be dangerous for “retail clients” to make any investment decision based on MOODY’S credit rating. If in doubt you should contact your financial or other professional adviser. Moody’s de México Conferencia Anual Septiembre 2014