PERFECT STORM To Hit Job Markets Perfect Storm
PERFECT STORM To Hit Job Markets! Perfect Storm To Hit Job Markets! Whole-Community Career & Workforce Development Strategy
1 Great Recession 3 Upskilling of Jobs 2 Aging Population 4 Unprepared Workforce Storm Warnings 4 Converging Megatrends Perfect Storm To Hit Job Markets! Whole-Community Career & Workforce Development Strategy
Megatrend 1: The Great Recession • Global economy in the throes of the worst economic storm in a century • Jobs in jeopardy • Recovery slow and faltering • Governments in record debt Perfect Storm To Hit Job Markets! Whole-Community Career & Workforce Development Strategy
Megatrend 2: Aging Population Predictable Demographics • Birth rate in decline since 1967 • • Marriage & childbirth later, fewer children Boomers retiring (1947 -64) Labour force participation rate declining Immigration can’t offset natural decline Perfect Storm To Hit Job Markets! Whole-Community Career & Workforce Development Strategy
Percent of Canadian Population 15 -64 Years of Age Perfect Storm To Hit Job Markets! Whole-Community Career & Workforce Development Strategy
Projected Worker Shortfall 2012 2016 2021 2026 2031 420, 000 950, 000 1, 550, 000 2, 080, 000 2, 760, 000 Rick Miner, February 2010, People Without Jobs, Jobs Without People [Figures projected nationally from Miner’s Ontario (38%) medium growth estimates] • Vast majority of 2031 work force has already been born • Immigration – 280, 000 (family, credentials, competition) • Under-represented - poor, aboriginals, women, disabled Perfect Storm To Hit Job Markets! Whole-Community Career & Workforce Development Strategy
Megatrend 3: Upskilling of Jobs Accelerating Knowledge Economy Rick Miner, February 2010, People Without Jobs, Jobs Without People Perfect Storm To Hit Job Markets! Whole-Community Career & Workforce Development Strategy
Businesses Can’t Find Talent Overall, 52% of businesses surveyed are having a difficult time recruiting for specific jobs. • • 71% of high-tech companies 68% of manufacturers 49% of financial firms 59% of professional services firms 51% of construction, mining, oil and gas companies 33% of state and local governments 31% of federal government agencies Society for Human Resources Managers (SHRM), Leading Indicators of National Employment Survey, November, 2011 Perfect Storm To Hit Job Markets! Whole-Community Career & Workforce Development Strategy
Frustrating Paradox In a period of high unemployment, 600, 000 jobs remain unfilled because manufacturers cannot find skilled workers. • • 52% report lack of problem solving skills 43% report lack of industry certification or vocational training 40% report lack of basic employability (soft) skills 36% report lack of technology or computer skills Notably, inadequate math, reading, and writing skills weren't seen as being as serious as other concerns. Manufacturing Institute Fall, October 2011 Perfect Storm To Hit Job Markets! Whole-Community Career & Workforce Development Strategy
Income Inequality Grows With the double shock we're experiencing now globalization and computer-aided industrial productivity - income inequality is growing, as the rewards for being skilled grow and the opportunities for the unskilled diminish. Adam Davidson, Making It in America, the Atlantic, Jan/Feb 2012 Perfect Storm To Hit Job Markets! Whole-Community Career & Workforce Development Strategy
New & Changing Jobs There’s never been a better time to imagine career prospects! • Nano-mechanic • Old age wellness manager • Memory augmentation surgeon • Weather modification police • Waste data handler • Social networking worker • Personal brander/communications advisor • Stem cell bank manager Adam Gordon, August 2009, Jobs of the Future, Science and Technology Enabled Employment 2020 -2030 Perfect Storm To Hit Job Markets! Whole-Community Career & Workforce Development Strategy
Megatrend 4: Unprepared Workforce Education System and Employers The Talent Pipeline Perfect Storm To Hit Job Markets! Whole-Community Career & Workforce Development Strategy
The Pipeline Leaks ü National HS graduation rate 79% (Education Indicators 2011, Statistics Canada & Council of Ministers of Education Canada) ü 60% of HS grads (47%) register immediately for postsecondary programs (King, 2009, Who Doesn’t Go To Post-Secondary Education? ) ü 25% of post-secondary students dropout by the end of the first year. A similar percent change programs or majors (Miner, 2010, People Without Jobs, Jobs Without People) Perfect Storm To Hit Job Markets! Whole-Community Career & Workforce Development Strategy
End of the Pipeline Of 100 students in the educational pipeline in grade 9 each year … ü 29 will graduate on schedule with a post-secondary degree, diploma or certificate ü 50% will not be in jobs directly related to their majors 2 years after graduation (Statistics Canada and Human Resources & Skills Development Canada, School Leavers Survey) ü Many carry heavy student loan debt with unclear employment prospects Perfect Storm To Hit Job Markets! Whole-Community Career & Workforce Development Strategy
More Demanding Labour Market (Upskilling) “Over the past third of a century all net job growth has been generated by positions requiring some post-secondary education. ” Pathways to Prosperity, February 2011, Harvard Graduate School of Education “Only 14% of undergrads enroll in STEM subjects. Only 2 in 5 will graduate with a STEM degree or certification within 6 years. We must do better. ” President Obama, June 2011 Perfect Storm To Hit Job Markets! Whole-Community Career & Workforce Development Strategy
Potential Labour Crisis “Canada is already facing a labour crunch as baby boomers retire. It could turn into a labour crisis if the education system is not fixed. ” Dr. Paul Cappon Canadian Council on Learning Perfect Storm To Hit Job Markets! Whole-Community Career & Workforce Development Strategy
Bottom Line Requirement Implement in all education and training sites the best available: 1. experiential career learning programs for all primary, middle, secondary and post-secondary students 2. career exploration and planning system 3. electronic portfolio system (all levels plus adults) 4. course planning system (ILP for every student) 5. online networking system to connect students with informed dreams to employers seeking talent Perfect Storm To Hit Job Markets! Whole-Community Career & Workforce Development Strategy
Perfect Storm To Hit Job Markets! Whole-Community Career & Workforce Development Strategy
The Perfect Talent Storm makes a harmonized, whole-community commitment to career and workforce development an economic imperative. Perfect Storm To Hit Job Markets! Whole-Community Career & Workforce Development Strategy
Economic Imperative? Businesses drive economic prosperity Good employees power successful businesses 30% of employees are fully engaged (productivity) 25% of students are fully engaged (achievement) The majority graduate without clear career goals (Harvard) Students need to be ready to step into success when they graduate. Companies need to identify future talent earlier (cc. Inspire). Perfect Storm To Hit Job Markets! Whole-Community Career & Workforce Development Strategy
What is the purpose of K-12 education? ü ü ü To qualify for university entrance? To qualify for employment? To prepare for success in life? Perfect Storm To Hit Job Markets! Whole-Community Career & Workforce Development Strategy
Life typically now involves more working hours than anything but sleep for 40 years or more. (Better be emotionally engaged and enjoy it) Image from The Real Game for middle school students Perfect Storm To Hit Job Markets! Whole-Community Career & Workforce Development Strategy
Sports Analogy We discover hockey potential at a very young age Most others must find their way through the educational maze then see if anyone wants them. Perfect Storm To Hit Job Markets! Whole-Community Career & Workforce Development Strategy
Career and Workforce Development Paradigm Shift Choosing Occupation Work Information Lists Learning Skills Life Imagination Introductions Perfect Storm To Hit Job Markets! Whole-Community Career & Workforce Development Strategy
Helping students imagine the future they want to create “Your imagination is a preview of life’s coming attractions. ” Albert Einstein “I wish The Real Game was MANDATORY for all students. The information and life experience it provides are more valuable than some required coursework. Giving our students the tools they need to be successful in “the real world” should be our first priority. ” Tanya Mc. Kay, First Northern Bank, Woodland, CA, April 2011 Perfect Storm To Hit Job Markets! Whole-Community Career & Workforce Development Strategy
Case Study • 9 th grade NC student - bright, but hated school • Couldn’t wait for school day to end to drop another transmission • Exposed to F 4 K, Career Cruising, Real Game • Passion and talents for things mechanical becomes evident • Receives invitation from companies • John Deere relationship evolves (mentorship, job shadowing, summer jobs) Perfect Storm To Hit Job Markets! Whole-Community Career & Workforce Development Strategy
Case Study • 9 th grade NC student - bright, but hated school • Couldn’t wait for school day to end to drop another transmission • Exposed to F 4 K, Career Cruising, Real Game • Passion and talents for things mechanical becomes evident • Receives invitation from companies • John Deere relationship evolves (mentorship, job shadowing, summer jobs) Outcome John Deere paid tuition for 2 -year Community College Small Engine Repair course then hired at $50 K, loan free. Perfect Storm To Hit Job Markets! Whole-Community Career & Workforce Development Strategy
Expected Results To be measured • More informed, purposeful, engaged, and higher achieving students - happier teachers and parents • Reduced truancy and bullying • Higher productivity for employers with reduced recruiting and retention costs • Reduced costs for support programs (alternative education, drug and substance abuse, social assistance, welfare, corrections) • More engaged, self-reliant, resilient citizens • Pride of accomplishment shared by community Perfect Storm To Hit Job Markets! Whole-Community Career & Workforce Development Strategy
Consequences of staying the course • Ongoing unacceptable levels of student underachievement and disengagement • Continued faltering in school to work transitions • Continued out-migration of talent • Increasing recruitment challenges for employers • More storm victims in future job markets • Reduced community prosperity Government Budget Impact: Revenues (personal income, business and consumption taxes, G/HST), education, social assistance, corrections, health Perfect Storm To Hit Job Markets! Whole-Community Career & Workforce Development Strategy
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