Per Capita Personal Income as of State Per

Per Capita Personal Income as % of State Per Capita Income 1, 35 1, 25 Alexandria Baton Rouge 1, 15 Lafayette Lake Charles Monroe 1, 05 New Orleans Shreveport 0, 95 0, 85 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2011 Northeast LA Business Outlook Summit Dr. Robert Eisenstadt, University of Louisiana at Monroe Dr. John Francis, Louisiana Tech University

Power. Point presentations from the 2011 BOS will be made available for review on-line at: cba. ulm. edu/cber

The Change in Real Louisiana GSP 2005 -2007 State 2007 -2009 Rank % change Oregon 1 13. 6% 31 -2. 7% Wyoming 2 13. 0% 1 19. 6% Utah 3 12. 5% 11 0. 2% Texas 4 10. 2% 15 -0. 3% Arizona 5 10. 0% 46 -5. 9% Louisiana 50 -6. 5% 6 4. 1%

The Change in Real Louisiana GSP continued 2005 -2007 State 2007 -2009 Rank % change Louisiana 50 -6. 5% 6 4. 1% Arkansas 31 3. 4% 10 0. 6% Mississippi 21 5. 0% 9 0. 8% Texas 4 10. 2% 15 -0. 3%

The Change in Real GSP by LA MSA 2005 -2007 Metropolitan Area Lafayette Alexandria Shreveport-Bossier City Monroe Baton Rouge New Orleans-Metairie-Kenner Lake Charles State Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 % change 16. 7% 3. 3% 1. 9% -7. 9% -11. 3% -31. 3% 2007 -2009 State Rank 3 7 1 6 4 2 5 % change 4. 6% -2. 3% 9. 3% -1. 6% 1. 8% 5. 8% 0. 4%

Population Change by MSA: 2000 -2010 15, 0% 10, 0% 14, 5% 2000 -2010 change in US = 9. 7% 2000 -2010 change in LA = 1. 4% SA l. M or t re v Sh ew -15, 0% ep O rl on ea ns ro e 1, 2% -11, 3% M C ke La fa ha ye rl tt es e a ou m R on at La -10, 0% B A le -5, 0% H ou g e xa nd ri a 0, 0% 6, 0% 3, 8% 3, 1% To ta 7, 0% 6, 1% N 13, 7% 5, 0%

Population Change in NE Louisiana: 2000 -2010 8, 0% 5, 6% 6, 0% 4, 0% 2, 0% 0, 5% 0, 0% NE LA less Ouach/Lincoln -2, 0% -0, 7% -4, 0% -6, 0% RLMA 8 -5, 4% Ouachita/Lincoln Parish: +10, 696 NELA less Ouach/Lincoln: - 8, 800 Ouach/Lincoln only

Index of population change 1980 -2010 (1980=1): US, LA, NELA 1, 40 1, 30 USA 1, 20 LA 1, 10 NELA 1, 00 Ouachita/Lincoln 0, 90 NELA less Ouach/Linc 0, 80 1990 2000 2010 Hispanic as % of Population 1980 2010 Louisiana 2. 35% 4. 25% United States 6. 45% 16. 35%

Other Economic Indicators

Non-Auto Retail: Annual change in 3 -month running average 8, 00% 6, 00% 4, 00% 2, 00% 0, 00% Ouachita Jan -2, 00% -4, 00% -6, 00% -8, 00% -10, 00% -12, 00% Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec United States

Non-Auto Retail Sales: % change 2009 -2010 7, 00% 6, 4% 5, 8% 6, 00% 4, 70% 5, 00% 4, 00% Ouachita 3, 00% USA 2, 00% 1, 00% 0, 00% -0, 15% -1, 00% Jan-Dec Nov-Dec

New Light Trucks/Vans: Index : 2007 = 100% 1, 1 1 100, 0% 100% 0, 9 82, 5% 0, 8 Louisiana 80, 3% NE Louisiana 0, 7 69, 2% 61, 6% 62, 7% 0, 6 58, 4% 0, 5 2007 State/Year Louisiana NE Louisiana 2008 2009 2010 2007 2008 2009 157, 665 126, 574 92, 105 10, 201 8, 418 6, 281 2010 98, 783 7, 057

New Automobiles: Index : 2007 =100% 1, 1 1 100% 98, 1% 100% 0, 9 Louisiana 91, 0% 0, 8 NE Louisiana 72, 9% 76, 2% 0, 7 62, 8% 67, 1% 0, 6 2007 Louisiana NE Louisiana 2008 2007 98, 083 4, 462 2009 2008 89, 258 4, 376 2010 2009 65, 782 3, 254 2010 61, 637 3, 399

NE LA Dealer Sample: New Vehicles: 11 037 12 000 9 222 10 000 8 000 6 604 6 118 6 000 4 000 2 000 0 2007 Source: Cross-Sell Reports 2008 2009 2010

Building Permits: Index: 2005 =1. 0 1, 2 1, 1 1 0, 9 0, 8 0, 7 0, 6 0, 5 0, 4 0, 3 0, 2 Ouachita LA USA 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Building Permit Value: Housing Permits Ouachita Parish Building Permits Total Cost (millions $) Source: U. S. Census 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 580 516 437 271 232 219 $103. 6 $89. 5 $68. 0 $47. 3 $38. 5 $37. 3

2008 -10 Change in Existing Home Prices: Top 5 States % Change Median Price Rank State % change 2008 -10 1 North Dakota 10. 2% 2 Oklahoma 4. 0% 3 Iowa 3. 0% 4 Louisiana 2. 6% 5 Nebraska 2. 2% Northeast LA = +3. 2% United States = -12. 7% Source: National Association of Realtors

And the lowest ranking states: Rank State % change in median price 2008 -10 46 California -17. 8% 47 Idaho -17. 9% 48 Florida -26. 4% 49 Arizona -28. 6% 50 Nevada -31. 8%

% Change in Median Home Prices: Louisiana MSA’s: Baton Rouge New Orleans Monroe Shreveport 2008 2009 2010 %chg 2008 -10 $165, 000 $160, 500 $129, 000 $138, 500 $163, 000 $160, 100 $134, 000 $147, 000 $169, 600 $159, 700 $135, 000 $156, 600 +2. 8% -0. 5% +4. 7% +13. 1% Source: National Association of Realtors

Existing Home Sales in Lincoln, Morehouse, Ouachita, Union seem to lack support for a significant price rise… Close price Price per Sq Foot Home Price less than $200, 000 2008 2009 2010 $115, 000 $118, 000 $114, 500 $71. 05 $73. 49 $72. 11 Close price Price per Sq Foot Home Price Greater Than or Equal to $200, 000 2008 2009 2010 $252, 000 $249, 900 $252, 000 $106. 41 $106. 33 $107. 51 Close price Price per Sq Foot All Existing Homes 2009 $133, 000 $80. 81 2008 $128, 850 $77. 12 Source: NE LA Board of Realtors MLS 2010 $133, 000 $79. 73

Until we note the number of homes sold in Northeast LA: 2008 2009 2010 Under $200, 000 1262 1198 1161 $200, 000 and up 290 317 340

Existing homes Market: Ouachita, Morehouse, Lincoln, Union Listings vs. Sales Index: 2006=1 1, 01 0, 99 0, 97 0, 95 Listings 0, 93 sales 0, 91 0, 89 0, 87 0, 85 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 listings sales 2006 2758 1730 2007 2745 1679 2008 2664 1552 2009 2417 1513 2010 2643 1501

Ouachita foreclosures are down (approx ½ US rate): Ouachita Parish Foreclosures 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 486 601 655 601 650 2004 593 2010 582 And bankruptcy filings in LA lag the Nation: 2007 = 1. 0 2, 1 1, 9 1, 7 West LA 1, 5 Louisiana U. S. 1, 3 1, 1 0, 9 2007 2008 2009 • Western District 2010 =12, 536 (+5. 1%) • Louisiana 2010 = 19, 236 (+5. 3%) • U. S (+13. 8%) Source: U. S. Federal Court 2010

The Labor Market

Total Covered Employment (Jobs): NE Louisiana 131 000 130 257 130 737 129 690 130 000 129 000 127 050 128 000 127 000 Jobs index: 2006 = 1. 0 125 879 126 000 1, 05 125 000 1, 04 124 000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 1, 03 1, 02 1, 01 NE LA 1 LA 0, 99 US 0, 98 0, 97 0, 96 Figures as of 2 nd qtr 2010: LA Dept of Labor; USBLS. 0, 95 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Construction: NE Louisiana 7 000 6 988 6 922 6 809 6 794 6 900 6 800 6 700 6 600 6 457 Jobs index: 2006 = 1. 0 6 500 6 400 1, 05 6 300 6 200 1 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 0, 95 0, 9 NE LA LA 0, 85 US 0, 8 0, 75 0, 7 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Manufacturing: NE Louisiana 13 145 14 000 12 534 11 832 12 000 9 858 10 057 10 000 8 000 Jobs index: 2006 = 1. 0 6 000 4 000 1, 13 2 000 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 1, 03 NE LA 0, 93 LA US 0, 83 0, 73 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Retail Trade: NE Louisiana 17 324 17 400 17 200 17 000 16 983 16 892 16 800 16 600 16 408 16 414 Jobs index: 2006 = 1. 0 16 400 16 200 1, 03 16 000 1, 02 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 1, 01 1 0, 99 NE LA 0, 98 LA 0, 97 US 0, 96 0, 95 0, 94 0, 93 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Finance and Insurance: NE Louisiana 5 753 5 800 5 700 5 600 5 500 5 391 5 424 5 406 Jobs index: 2006 = 1. 0 5 407 5 400 1, 09 5 300 1, 07 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 1, 05 1, 03 NE LA 1, 01 LA 0, 99 US 0, 97 0, 95 0, 93 0, 91 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Health Care & Social Assistance: NE Louisiana 25 276 25 400 25 000 25 200 25 000 24 800 24 600 24 400 24 200 24 000 24 997 24 364 Jobs index: 2006 = 1. 0 24 047 1, 14 23 800 23 600 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 1, 12 1, 1 1, 08 NE LA 1, 06 LA US* 1, 04 1, 02 1 0, 98 2006 *US data contains both education and health care 2007 2008 2009 2010

Total Employment (excluding Healthcare): NE Louisiana 107000 106 210 105 326 106000 105 737 105000 104000 103000 101 774 100 882 102000 Jobs index: 2006 = 1. 0 10100000 1, 05 99000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 1, 03 1, 01 NELA 0, 99 LA US 0, 97 0, 95 0, 93 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Unemployment by MSA: Unemployed Alexandria Baton Rouge Houma Lafayette Lake Charles Monroe New Orleans Shreveport US 12/2010=9. 1% LA 12/2010=7. 2% Source: Laworks. net Dec-07 2, 546 13, 529 2, 679 3, 596 3, 530 3, 524 17, 072 7, 799 Dec-10 4, 720 27, 103 5, 213 4, 656 6, 379 6, 139 38, 136 12, 079 Alexandria Baton Rouge Houma Lafayette Lake Charles Monroe New Orleans Shreveport Unemployment Rate (%) Dec-07 Dec-10 3. 8 6. 7 3. 7 7. 1 2. 6 5. 1 3. 3 5. 6 3. 8 6. 7 4. 4 7. 7 3. 3 7. 0 4. 3 6. 6

Louisiana Employment: Total Nonfarm Employment in Louisiana Total Private Non-farm Employment in Louisiana Dec-09 R 1, 890, 000 1, 518, 700 Dec-10 R 1, 899, 300 1, 534, 700 LA continued weekly unemployment claims 2009 -10 = -24. 2% US continued weekly unemployment claims 2009 -10 = -20. 5% Mining & Logging Oil & Gas Extraction Crude Petrol & Nat Gas Ext Support Activities for Mining Drilling Oil & Gas Wells Dec 2007 R Dec 2009 R Dec 2010 R 51, 600 7, 900 7, 800 39, 200 9, 600 47, 300 8, 900 8, 600 36, 400 7, 300 52, 300 8, 600 8, 000 39, 600 9, 000

Regional Outlook

Probable s sources of significant Job growth in Northeast Louisiana for the next 2 -5 years: • Manufacturing • Autos • Food processing • Telecommunications • Financial Services/Information

5 year estimates of growth (range): • Jobs (f/t equivalent): 2, 700 - 9, 000 • 2. 5% - 8. 2% • HH Income($ millions): $90. 0 - $285. 0 • 2. 4% - 7. 5% % change based on aggregate of Lincoln, Morehouse, Ouachita, Richland, Union Parishes

Threats to local economic activity: • Next Auto fails to obtain Federal Loan • Cuts to State Government • Higher Education • Amounts unknown • K-12 education • Probably not

Regarding the effect on NELA of State funding cuts to higher education, consider first the annual impact of Gardner Denver Thomas: The Impact of Gardner Denver Thomas F/T Equivalent Jobs HH Income Direct Effects 230 $9. 2 Million Indirect Effects 300 $7. 5 Million Total Impact 530 $16. 7 Million

Now consider the combined impact of ULM, Tech, and Grambling on NELA. And a 5% cut in State funding: 100% of Spending F/T equivalent Jobs HH Income From University Spending From Student Spending Total Impact 5% Cut in Spending F/T equivalent Jobs HH Income 5, 830 $340 million -292 -$17. 0 million 2, 020 $37 million -101 -$1. 85 million 7, 850 $377 million -393 -$18. 85 million Source of data: Louisiana Board of Regents

Thank you for Supporting the Tech/ULM Business Outlook Summit. ? ’s