PENSIONS IN CEF COUNTRIES AN OVERVIEW DUAN KIDRI

PENSIONS IN CEF COUNTRIES AN OVERVIEW DUŠAN KIDRIČ UMAR/IMAD

Transitions from • one complex and federal state to single independent states (for some countries) – Not completed jet • socialist to parliamentarian political system • no market to market economy • war to peace – Completed (? ) • public obligation to private responsibility for social security Dušan KIDRIČ

Implications touching pensions in transition countries • • • Decrease in activity Less insured persons Increase of informal activity – employment Evasion of contribution payment Decline of revenues disposable Increase of beneficiaries Pension arrears Reduction of pension benefits Same pension providers (institutions) Unchanged way of operating Distrust in current pension system Dušan KIDRIČ all all all some all Mainly some

Population, retirement Dušan KIDRIČ

Responses to the situation • Pension reforms – New concepts • Political and social discussion – Parametrical adjustments (tightenining) – New forms of pension provision and practice • International assistance Dušan KIDRIČ

Political and social discussion on concepts • New ones – Empowering – Individualization – Poverty alleviation – Actuarial fairness – (Pre)funding – Diversification Dušan KIDRIČ • Traditional ones – Redistribution – Solidarity – Earning based rights – Social justice – PAYG – Equalization

Reforms adopted Dušan KIDRIČ

Parametric changes • Rising statutory retirement age – Range 62 to 65 for men – Range 56 to 65 for women • Reduction of yearly accrual rate – For 0 to 0, 5 percentage points • Enlarging qualifying period – Range from 18 to 40 years • Increase (reduction) of pensions when retired later (earlier) – From 0 (non existing) to 3, 6% per additional (missing) year Dušan KIDRIČ

Parametric changes • Capping the benefits and contributions – All possible combinations • Invalidity adjustments – More severe conditions • Indexation of benefits – Les generous, more complicated • Opening the scale of total accrual rates – Yes and not • Instruments for achieving actuarial neutrality – Not many (one certainly) Dušan KIDRIČ

Main data ALB BIH BGR HRV MKD MDA ROM MNG * SRB* SVN gdp/capita in US$ 2. 677 2. 398 3. 442 8. 418 2. 833 691 4. 556 3. 313 17. 030 population in thousands 3. 149 3. 843 7. 679 4. 442 2. 043 3. 581 21. 624 7. 533 2. 001 population/pensions 5, 84 7, 55 3, 38 4, 26 7, 59 5, 85 4, 80 0, 00 5, 99 4, 10 life expectancy at birth W (years) 78, 60 76, 30 79, 00 75, 88 71, 70 75, 47 75, 00 75, 40 81, 30 legal retirement age W (at the end of transitory period) 60 60 60 62 57 60 60 60 61 life expectancy at birth M (years) 72, 1 69, 1 72, 0 71, 4 63, 8 68, 2 71, 0 70, 0 74, 1 legal retirement age W (at the end of transitory period) 65 63 65 64 62 65 65 65 63 Dušan KIDRIČ 65

Two gender specific systems Dušan KIDRIČ

Legal retirement age and life expectancy Dušan KIDRIČ

Adjustment of benefits and indexation of pension base • Variety of rules Dušan KIDRIČ

Level of benefits • Generally very low – Less than 50% of average wage • Minimum benefits (minimum pension, guaranteed pension) still lower – Around one third of average pension • Distribution of pensions – Concentration on the lower classes Dušan KIDRIČ

Low coverage Dušan KIDRIČ

Fiscal elements current situation • Less contribution revenues than obligations (except in case of FBi. H) in pension systems – Need to budgetary transfer • Contribution rates and contribution bases different from country to country and even in the same country ALB BIH 24, 0 % Dušan KIDRIČ BGR HRV 23, 0 % MKD MDA ROM MNG* SRB * 20, 0 21, 2% % 29, 0 % 21, 6 % 22, 0 % SVN 24, 4 %

Some elements for assessing long term perspective • Demography (Problems with population census) – Ageing • Life expectancy will (with high probability) increase • Fertility rates are low – Migration will cause shortage of labor supply Dušan KIDRIČ • Economic performance – Integration in a larger economic area • Catching up the neighbors • Foreign direct investment – Better utilization of domestic resources – Peace

Some social phenomena to be taken into account • Social stratification • Social cohesion and social in(ex)clusion – Poverty • Low pension benefits • Low coverage – Enrichment • In the privatization process • New monopoles – Free movement of people Dušan KIDRIČ – Older workers • Heavy adaptability – Elderly people • Alone and not enough support – From family – Systemic – Health services provision

Fiscal elements long term perspective • The contribution rates could hardly be increased – The share of contribution revenues will decline or in best option remain the same as it is now • The amount and share of pension obligation will increase – Due to ageing of population – Due to non possible reduction of current level of pension benefits • The difference between obligations (liabilities) and revenues (assets) will increase Dušan KIDRIČ

Pension reform (mainly financial) answers • Introduction of explicit funding – Mandatory as a II. Pillar according to WB classification • Croatia, Macedonia, Bulgaria, Romania, Kosovo, … – Voluntary • All except Bi. H • Introduction of a NDC for a first mandatory pillar – In consideration in many countries Dušan KIDRIČ

Explicit funding • The chicken / egg phenomenon – Underdeveloped financial market • New and not enough financially solid domestic intermediaries • Lack of expertise • Very few domestic financial instruments – Low premiums – High initial cost • Bad country risk rating • High fees and low return on available instruments – Regulatory and supervisory problems Dušan KIDRIČ

Members in the new pension schemes • At the end of 2006 more than 5 millions persons are included in mandatory or voluntary (pre)funded pension schemes – Most of them in Bulgaria and Croatia – Macedonia – Slovenia in a voluntary (but mainly collective) pensions schemes • In the 2006 and 2007 is expecting to start (or started yet) in many other countries Dušan KIDRIČ

Pension reform (less financial and more social ) answers • Enlargement of state subsidies – For non insurance based benefits • • Maternity leave Military service Veterans … • Introduction of a state (social) pension as a universal benefit in the old age – zero pillar – Redefinition and redesigning of existing minimum benefits in pension and social assistance systems • Possible reduction of pension contribution as a part of labor cost Dušan KIDRIČ

Conclusions – Parametric reforms were introduced and the new parameters gave the possibility to master current fiscal problems • Politically the reforms are always under revision; they are many signs that some parameters are not any more sympatric to politicians – To cope with long term fiscal sustainability, the reforms have to open new instruments to strengthen the individual responsibility and make clear consequences for individual decisions • The pension providers have to supply better and accurate information of individual and common (societal) pension situation Dušan KIDRIČ

Conclusions – Mandatory redistributive part of the pension system has to rethink the “philosophical” bases of social insurance • Is the limitation of solidarity exclusively on formally employed persons and on those with achieved (prescribed) work history still sufficient? • Could be social cohesion and general taxes as revenue the rationale for enlarging the eligibility criteria – The new forms of calculating pension base seem to be more convenient to changed and changing world • The NDC system is one of newly introduced type, which could serve also for financial literacy purposes in (pre)funded schemes Dušan KIDRIČ

Conclusions – Explicit funding (second and third pillar) have the same logic and limitations • The length of saving period has to be as long as possible; in connection with social insurance part both are interested on prolongation of activity • The premium or contributions have to be greater then currently are. The complementary nature of supplementary pension insurance will fulfill the expectations only with sufficient assets on individual accounts – The new pension providers must have in mind that fees and costs are essential for social acceptance of them • If the sentence “Get reach – slowly” is valid for pension saving, the same must be observed from new financial intermediary Dušan KIDRIČ