PENELITIAN HYPOTHETICO DEDUCTIVE METHOD Prof Dr Imam Ghozali

PENELITIAN HYPOTHETICO DEDUCTIVE METHOD Prof. Dr. Imam Ghozali, M. Com Program S 3 Ilmu Ekonomi Universitas Diponegoro

BERPIKIR INDUKTIF DAN DEDUKTIF “ Metal Dipanaskan memuai” Universal Statement TEORI Induktif Observasi Empiris Singular Statement Deduktif Normatif & Positif Describe (deskripsi) Explain (menjelaskan) Predict (meramalkan)

HUBUNGAN TEORI DAN PENELITIAN Sifat Teori Jenis Penelitian Deskriptif 1. Exploratory 2. Uji Hipotesis a. Korelasi b. Regresi Explain Prediksi Non-Empiris Filsafat, Sejarah Empiris Study Kasus, survey Etnography Empiris Survey Non-eksperimen Empiris Eksperimen Survey

THE STEPS IN HYPOTHETICO DEDUCTIVE METHOD 1 Observation 4 5 3 Problem Definition Preliminary Data Gathering 2 Theoretical Framework Hypotheses 6 Research Design 7 Data Collection Analysis Deduction 8

Problem Definition 1. Latar Belakang Masalah (7 - 10 hal) - Theory Gap atau Research Gap - Masalah Penelitian dapat berasal dari a. Pengamatan empiris b. Penelitian sebelumnya: replikasi, modifikasi atau pengembangan

Problem Definition 2. Perumusan Masalah - Diawali dengan problem statement (pernyataan masalah) - Diwujudkan dalam research question (pertanyaan penelitian) : What, How dan Why 3. Tujuan Penelitian - Menjawab masalah penelitian - Gunakan kata kerja dgn kognitif tinggi (menganalisis, mengevaluasi) - Harus konsisten antara judul penelitian, latar belakang masalah, perumusan masalah, tujhuan penelitian dan hipotesis

A Comparison of Accounting Standards Setting in The International Environment And in The United States Purpose of The Study The primary purpose of this research study is to investigate the extent to which Experience in establishing accounting standards in the United States can be Utilized in the developing the process of establishing international accounting Standards for the financial statement reporting of enterprises operating in the International environment. Research Questions The research was undertaken to answer the following primary research Questions: What need for modifications to the process of establishing accounting standards in the international environment can be inferred from a comparison with the process of establishing accounting standards in the united states?

The subsidiary research questions are: 1. How are accounting standards currently established for the financial statement reporting of profit oriented United States enterprises? 2. How are international accounting standards currently established for the financial statement reporting of profit oriented enterprises? 3. What are the similarities and differences in the process of establishing accounting standards in the United States and on an international level? 4. What differences exist in the environment within which financial statement reporting takes place on an international level when compared with the United States?

Some common mistakes in problem formulation 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Collecting data without a well defined plan or purpose, hoping to make some sense out of it afterward. Taking a “batch of data” that already exist and attempting to fit meaningful research questions to it. Defining objectives in such general or ambiguous term that your interpretations and conclusions will be arbitrary and invalid. Undertaking a research project without reviewing professional literature on the subject. Ad hoc research, unique to a given situation, permitting no generalizations beyond the situation itself and making no contribution to the general body of educational research

Some common mistakes in problem formulation 6. Failure to base research on a sound theoretical or conceptual framework, which would tie together the divergent masses of research into a systematic and comparative scheme, providing feed back and evaluation of educational theory. 7. Failure to make explicit and clear the underlying assumptions within your research so that it can be evaluated in terms of these foundations. 8. Failure to recognized the limitations in your approach, implied or explicit, that place restrictions on the conclusion and how they apply to other situations. 9. Failure to anticipate alternative rival hypotheses that would also account for given set findings and which challenge the interpretations and conclusions reached by the investigator.

KERANGKA PEMIKIRAN TEORITIS Suatu conceptual model untk menggambarkan hubungan antar variabel yg Telah diidentifkasi sebagai faktor penting yg berkaitan dg masalah penelitia Content of Theory Concepts Abstract idea Non-Variable Definiton State meaning of the concept Variable Observe Kinerja (ROA) Inflasi (IHK) Un-observed Proposition Statement about concept Or relationship between concept

Skala Pengukuran Variabel Skala Kategori Peringkat Jarak Unique Nilai Origin Tengah Dispersi Test signif Nominal Ya Tdk Tdk Mode Ordinal Ya Ya Tdk Median Interquartil Deviasi Rank Order Corr Interval Ya Ya Ya Tdk Mean Standar Deviasi t, F Ratio Ya Ya Mean Standar Deviasi t, F X 2

UN-OBSERVED VARIABLE (LATENT VARIABLES) Kepuasan Kerja Dimensi Indikator Job Q 1 Q 2 Q 3 Atasan Q 4 Q 5 Q 6 Q 7 Co Worker Q 8 Q 9 Q 10 Q 11 Q 1 = setujukah bahwa pekerjaan saudara membosankan ? STS TS N S SS Q 4 = setujukah bahwa atasan saudara selalu menghargai pekerjaan saudara? Q 8 = setujukah bahwa teman sekerja sudara selalu mendorong saudara?

Jenis variabel • • Variabel Independen (bebas)/exogen Variabel Dependen (terikat)/ endogen Variabel Kontrol (umumnya demografi) Variabel Moderating (memperkuat atau memperlemah hubungan variabel dependen dan independen) • Variabel Intervening atau mediating (variabel antara)

Reflective and Formative Indicator Stress Stomach Headache tension Reflective Indicator Divorce Retired Bankcrupt Formative Indicator

Independent Dependent CAR ROA NPL NIM Size Age Control variables ROA = b 0 + b 1 CAR + b 2 NPL + b 3 NIM + e ROA = b 0 + b 1 CAR + b 2 NPL +b 3 NIM + b 4 Size + b 5 Age + e We never hyphotese variable control

Path Analysis Exogenous variable ξ (Ksi)= is not posses an antecendent varaibles Endogenous variable η (Eta)= is posses an antecedent variables Intervening /Mediating variable = is posses an antecedent as well as consequent variables (η 1) Coefficient parameter from Exogenous to endogenous γ (gamma) Coefficient parameter from endogenous to endogeneus β (beta) η 1=γ 1. 1ξ 1+γ 1. 2ξ 2+ ζ 1 η 2= γ 2. 1ξ 1+γ 2. 2ξ 2+β 2. 1η 1+ ζ 2

Structural Equation Modeling Measurement Model: ξ 1(Ksi) X 1=λ 1ξ 1+d 1 X 2=λ 2ξ 1+d 2 X 3=λ 3ξ 1+d 3 Structural Model: η 1=γ 1. 1ξ 1+γ 1. 2ξ 2+ ζ 1 η 2= γ 2. 1ξ 1+γ 2. 2ξ 2+β 2. 1η 1+ ζ 2

Moderating Variables X Y Numbers of Books read Capability of reading Parent Condition illiterate Z Y = b 0 +b 1 X + b 2 Z*X+ e Y= b 0 + b 1 X + b 2 Z +b 3 Z*X + e

Universal vs Contingency Theory A B A and B as Shoes Company If I have to setup MIS in company A, is it also applicable for company B According Universal theory, yes it also can be applied as well at company B But according to Contingency theory can not be applied to B since company B Has its own situational or contextual factors that might be different from A, The contingency variables are: 1. Environment uncertainty 2. Technology 3. Organizational structure 4. Strategy 5. Culture

Indepeden Dependen Partisipasi Anggaran Kinerja Manajerial Dependen Independen Kinerja Manajerial Partispasi Anggaran Motivasi Independen Moderating Partisipasi Anggaran Dependen Kinerja Manajerial Motivasi Intervening

Hypotheses • A Special type of proposition that represents conjecture about concepts stated in empirically testable form. • Is derived from a proposition by linking one or more constitutively defined concepts with the empirical indicators identified in the operational definition. • Proposisi: suatu pernytaan tentang konsep yang dapat dinilai benar atau salah jika dikaitkan dengan fenomena. • Jika proposisi ini dirumuskan untuk pengujian empiris, maka disebut hipotesis

Hypotheses • Hipotesis sering juga digambarkan sebagai suatu pernyataan dimana kita mengkaitkan variabel kepada kasus. Kasus adalah entity atau sesuatu yang sedang dibahas dalam hipotesis. • Hipotesis dapat dibedakan menjadi A. Hipotesis deskriptif (descriptive hypotheses): yaitu proposisi yang menyatakan tentang keberadaan, ukuran, bentuk, atau distribusi suatu variabel. Kota-kota di Amerika mengalami kesulitan anggaran. Kota-kota = kasus Kesulitan anggaran= variabel Delapan puluh persen pemegang saham PT XYZ menyukai kenaikan deviden kas. PT XYZ= kasus Sikap pemegang saham yang menghendaki kenaikan deviden= variabel

Hypotheses • Beberapa peneliti lebih senang menggunakan pertanyaan penelitian daripada hipotesis deskriptif. Apakah kota-kota di Amerika mengalami kesulitan anggaran? Apakah para pemegang saham PT XYZ menyukai kenaikan deviden kas? B. Hipotesis Relational : merupakan pernyataan yang menggambarkan hubungan antara dua variabel dalam kaitannya dengan suatu kasus Mobil impor dipandang memiliki kualitas yang lebih baik oleh konsumen Indonesia dibandingkan dengan mobil buatan dalam negeri. Konsumen = kasus Negara asal dan kualitas = variabel

Hypotheses • 1. Hipotesis relational dapat berbentuk: Hubungan korelasi: tdk ada hubungan sebab-akibat Masinis muda (umur<35 th) lebih rendah produktivitasnya dibandingkan masinis yang berumur 35 th atau lebih. 2. Hubungan sebab-akibat: dalam hal ini adanya perubahan satu variabel akan mempengaruhi variabel lainnya. Adanya kenaikan pendapatan keluarga akan meningkatkan prosentase pendapatan yang ditabung.

Hypotheses • • Bentuk baku hipotesis Null Hypotheses (H 0) Tidak ada beda antara x dan y Tidak ada asosiasi/korelasi antara x dan y Tidak ada pengaruh x terhadap y • Alternative Hypotheses (HA) Ada beda antara x dan y Ada asosiasi/korelasi antara x dan y Ada pengaruh x terhadap y • Hipotesis yang baik hrs memenuhi tiga hal: a. Memenuhi tujuan penelitian b. Dapat diuji c. Lebih baik dari rivalnya.

The Impact of Structure, Environment, and Interdependence on The Perceived Usefullness of management Accounting System Robert H Chenhall and Degan Morris The Accounting Review Vol LXI No 1 January 1986 External Environment Uncertainty Moderating Organizational Structure: Decentralization Organizational Independence Perceived Usefulness Of MAS: 1. Scope 2. Timeliness 3. Aggregation 4. Integration

Hipotesis Penelitian • H 1: There is a direct relationship between the perceived usefulness of the MAS characteristic of broad scope and the three contextual variable of 1)decentralization, 2) perceived environment uncertainty, 3) organizational interdependence. • H 2: There is direct relationship between the perceived usefulness of the MAS characteristic of timeliness and the contextual variable of PEU. • H 3: There is direct relationship between the perceived usefulness of the MAS characteristic of aggregation and the two contextual variables of 1) decentralization, and 2) PEU

Hipotesis Penelitian • H 4: There is direct relationship between the perceived usefulness of the MAS characteristic of integration and the two contextual variables of 1) decentralization, and 2) organizational interdependence. • H 5: There is an indirect relationship between the perceived usefulness of the two MAS characteristic of 1) broad scope and 2)aggregation, and PEU acting through decentralization. • H 6: There is an indirect relationship between the perceived usefulness of the two MAS characteristic of 1) broad scope and 2) integration, and OI acting through decentralization.

Influences on Departemental Budgeting: An Empirical Examination of A Contingency Model Kenneth A merchant Accounting, Organizational and Society Vol 9 1984 Situational Characteristics -Production Technology -Market factors -Organizational Characteristics Budgeting System Characteristics Organizational Performance

Hipotesis Penelitian • Production technolgy and budgeting H 1: Department with productive technology that are relatively routine and repetitive tend to place greater emphasis on formal budgeting. • Market factors and budgeting H 2: Department with predominantly in the earlier stages of product life cycle (emerging, growth) tend to place less emphasis on formal budgeting than do departments with products predominantly in the later stage (mature, declining). H 3: Department with a relatively strong market position tend to place greater emphasis on formal budgeting.

Hipotesis Penelitian • Organizational characteristics and budgeting. H 4: Larger, more diverse department tend to place greater emphasis on formal budgeting. • Effects on organizational performance H 5: Organizational performance tend to be higher where there is a “fit” between the use of budgeting and the situational factors as described in Hypotheses 1 -4

The Effect of Technological Sophistication on Strategic Profiles, Structure and Firm Performance Jeffrey G Covin and E Prescot Journal of Management Studies 27: 5 September 1990 Industry Technological Sophistication Macro Strategy Variable Micro Strategy Variable Organizatioanl structure Firm Performance

Hipotesis Penelitian • H 1: Small firms in high-tech industries have mission strategies which are more build-oriented than are those of small firms in low-tech industries. • H 2: Small firms in high-tech industries have strategic postures which are more entrepreneurial than are those of small firms in low-tech industries. • H 3: Small firms in high-tech industries have structures which are more organic than are those small firms in lowtech industries. • H 4: Small firms in high-tech industries perform better than do small firms in low-tech industries.

Diversification and Performance: Critical Review and Future Directions Deepak K Datta and Nandini Rajagopalan Journal of Management Studies 28: 5 September 1991 Degree of diversification Moderating Diversification strategy Mode of diversification Industry structure -Concentration -Barrier to entry -Capital intensity -Growth Organizational Factor: Structure, culture system Performance: -return -risk - other

The Effect of Effort on Sales Performance and Job Satisfaction By Steven P. Brown and Robert A Peterson Journal of Marketing Vol 58, April 1994 Competitiveness Instrumentality Role ambiguity Effort Performance Satisfaction Role Conflict

The Design and Effects of Contriol System : Test of Indirect Models By: Michael D Shields; F Johny Deng and Yutaka kato Accounting, Organization and Society 25 2000 Participative Std setting Std Based Incentive Std Tightness Job Related Stress Job Performance

Setting Penelitian Laboratory Setting Field Setting Laboratory Research Field Research Laboratory Experiment Field Study

Common Type of Dependent Measure of Variables in Accounting Research Behavioral Measures Frequency Of respond Latency Number of errors Research involves Measurement Established measures Through literture review Validity and Reliability Known Self Report Measure Rating Scale Likert Scale Attitude measurement Develop own measure Need to test for validity and reliability

Desain Penelitian • Non-Experimental Quasi-Experimental Design Based on correlational research strategy - Observational research - Case study research - Content analysis - Survey research - Quasi-experimental • Experimental Design Based on experimental research strategy - Simple experiment - Multiple group experiment - Field experiment • Quasi experimental design if the data come from an environment which existed or Or events that occurred without his direct intervention. • True experiment design if he is (1) able to manipulate explicitly one or more inde pendent variables, (2) to assign subject to control or experimental groups (basically to achieve randomization)

Sampling Method • Unit analisis: 1. individuals groups artifacts (books, photos, newspapers) 2. geographical units (town, census tract, state). 3. social interactions (dyadic relations, divorces, arrests)

Probability Sampling Probabilitas Populasi Persh Go Public Di BEJ 350 persh Sample 60 persh Mean Variance Std Dev Std. Dev Variance

Probability Sampling • Simple random sampling: 1. Lotere 2. Tabel Random • Complex Random Sampling: 1. Systematic random sampling 2. Stratified random sampling 3. Cluster random sampling

Non-Probability Sampling • Convenience sampling • Purposive sampling • Judgemnetal sampling Kesalahan Sampling: Type I error (alpha): salah padahal benar Type II error (beta): benar padahal salah

Menentukan Besarnya Sample • a. b. c. • a. Ada 3 faktor yang mempengaruhi sample size: Variance atau heteroginitas dari populasi (S) Besarnya acceptable error (E) Confidence level (Zc. i) Menentukan besarnya sample: Estimate std dev populasi (kasar 1/6 dari range) b. Lakjukan judgment tdp kesalahan yang diinginkan. c. Tentukan confidence intervalnya

Perhitungan besarnya sample • Rumus : n= (ZS/E)2 Dimana: Z = nilai cofidence level S = std dev. Sample atau populasi E = nilai accepted error, plus atau minus error factor (one half total confidence interval)

Perhitungan besarnya sample • Seorang peneiliti ingin meneliti pengeluaran untuk lipstick dan menginginkan besarnya confidence level 95% (Z) dengan range kesalahan (E) kurang dari $2 dengan standar deviasi $29 n = (ZS/E)2 = [(1. 96)(29)/$2)]2= 808, jika error range menjadi $4 , maka sample n = [(1. 96)(29)/$4)]2 = 202

Uji Kualitas Data • Uji Reliabilitas atau konsistensi : cronbach alpha • Uji validitas : a. Bivariate korelasi b. Analisis faktor • Uji Non response bias

Metode Analisis Data • Metode Dependen: menguji ada tidaknya hubungan dua set variabel. Satu variabel adalah variabel bebas (independen) dan satu variabel adalah variabel terikat (dependen). Tujuan metode dependen menentukan apakah variabel bebas mempengaruhi variabel terikat. • Metode Interdependen: jika set data yang ada tidak mungkin dikelompokkan kedalam variabel bebas dan terikat, maka yang dapat dilakukan adalah mengidentifikasi bagaimana dan mengapa variabel tersebut saling berkaitan satu sama lain.

Teknik Analisis Data Variabel terikat Variabel Bebas Teknik Analisis 1. Satu metrik Satu non-metrik Dua kategori Uji Beda t-test 2. Satu metrik Satu non metrik >dua kategori 3. Satu metrik Dua non metrik >Dua kategori Analysis of variance (ANOVA) –one way Anova Two way Anova 4. Dua atau lebih metrik Satu atau lebih non metrik Multivariate analysis of variance (Manova)

Teknik Analisis Data Variabel terikat Variabel bebas 5. Satu metrik Dua atau lebih metrik Multiple Regression dan non metrik Dua atau lebih metrik Analisis Diskriminan dan non metrik Logistic regression Dua atau lebih metrik 6. Satu non metrik 7. Dua atau lebih metrik Teknik Analisis Structural equation Modelling (SEM)