Peak oil climate change and transition for XXXXXX

Peak oil, climate change and transition for XXXXXX xxxxxx : dd-Mmm-YY First. Name Last. Name Steering group Transition Town XXXXX

Agenda n n n Peak Oil and its effects Climate Change Responses at different levels – global, national, local, personal n n n PO + CC ≠ “business as usual” What is a transition town Examples and achievements so far Q&A discussion RESILIENCE

Peak Oil n we’ll never “run out” of oil n we’re running out of cheap, plentiful oil n oil underpins – industrial development – agriculture – economics – population n about ½ way through it… n it’s going to decline

Peak Oil – a theory? n 98 oil producers

Peak Oil – a theory? n Not a theory for these 64 post peak producers

Peak Oil – discovery n US discovery peaked in 1930 s – production peaked in 1971 n UK discovery peaked in 1975 – production peaked in 1999 n world discovery peaked in 1960 s – production will peak in 20? ?

Peak Oil – official numbers

Peak Oil – official numbers (conventional oil)

Peak Oil – official numbers (unconventional oil)

Peak Oil – official numbers (all liquids)

Peak gas for UK n Source – National Grid

UK Gov’t assumptions re oil price (2008) “Middle” Scenario http: //www. berr. gov. uk/files/file 46071. pdf “High-High” Scenario

Peak Oil vs Peak Exports n Oil producers getting richer n Developing their own economies n n Middle East growth: 5 -6% pa n Russia growth: 7% pa Increasing their domestic consumption of oil n n fuelled by subsidised prices Less available for countries they export to. Like us …

Peak Oil – what’s it like? n terminal decline n demand destruction n examples: – 1990 s: North Korea – 1990 s: Cuba – 2000: UK fuel crisis – Now: Poor countries

Peak oil, climate change, food and the Scottish parliament n Unanimously passed motion n “…Parliament expresses its concern at the potential for global food shortages; … food price inflation now exceeding 6%; calls on the Scottish Government, Her Majesty’s Government, the European Union and other relevant bodies to … seek solutions that take account of the growing pressures on agriculture from both climate change and the rush to biofuels as well as the peak in oil production … ensuring the long-term capacity and capability of our food supply; … encourage the development of local supply chains through public procurement, address the imbalance in power between the big supermarkets and our food producers. . ” (June 2008)

Climate Change – the end of the debate The 4 th IPCC report, 2007 states: n Warming of the climate system is unequivocal n Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20 th century is very likely (confidence level >90%) due to the observed increase in human greenhouse gas concentrations Upsala Glacier, Argentina

Climate Change – the start of the feedbacks…

Peak Oil & Climate Change PEAK OIL (a la Hirsch et al. ) n coal to liquids n gas to liquids n relaxed drilling regulations n massively scaled biofuels n tar sands and nonconventional oils n resource nationalism and stockpiling PLANNED RELOCALISATION n local resilience n carbon reduction n consume closer to home n produce closer to home n play closer to home n decentralised energy infrastructure n the Great Reskilling n localised food n energy descent plans n local medicinal capacity n local currencies CLIMATE CHANGE (a la Stern et al. ) n climate engineering n carbon capture and storage n tree-based carbon offsets n international emissions trading n climate adaptation n improved transportation logistics n nuclear power

What can be done? n Global – – – n Oil Depletion Protocol Contraction and Convergence Kyoto National – TEQs, Cap & Share (energy rationing) n Community – Transition Towns, cities, villages, rural n Personal – – – “The work that reconnects” lessons from addiction counselling getting Gaia’ed

Can we respond? n Going up the energy slope, we used – – n ingenuity creativity adaptability cooperation Going back down… – if we’re early enough – if we’re cooperative – the future could be a whole lot better…

Who’s doing creative, orderly energy descent? (1) Official Transition Initiatives n Glastonbury n Totnes n Penwith (Cornwall) n Kinsale n Ivybridge n Falmouth n Moretonhampstead n Lewes n Stroud n Ashburton n Ottery St Mary n Bristol n Brixton n Forest Row n Mayfield n Forest of Dean n Lostwithiel n Nottingham n Wrington n Brighton&Hove n Portobello (Edinburgh) n Market Harborough n Sunshine Coast, Oz n West Kirby n Llandeilo n Bro Ddyfi n Whitstable n Marsden&Slaithwaite

Who’s doing creative, orderly energy descent? (2) Official Transition Initiatives n Frome n Presteigne n Brampton n Wolverton n Isle n Leicester of Wight n Waiheke Island (NZ) n Orewa (NZ) n Dunbar n Rhayader n Seaton n Bath n Exeter n Isle of Man n Canterbury n Kapiti (NZ) n Biggar n Holywood n Westcliffe-on-Sea n Isle of Scilly n Liverpool South n Norwich n Tring n Crediton n Boulder, CO (USA) n Howe n Lampeter n South Pemberton

And who’s mulling it over? 700+ “mullers” n n n n UK Ireland USA Spain Italy New Zealand Australia France Israel Canada Mexico Norway South Africa Sweden n n Uruguay Argentina Belgium Chile Czech Republic Netherlands Switzerland Brazil China Japan Poland

How are they organising? Transition Model n Understanding: n PO + CC ≠ “business as usual” n Adaptability, creative n NOW 7 Buts n 12 Steps n Transition Network n

Transition Model – 7 “buts” (1) 1) we don’t have funding 2) “they” won’t let us – no enemies… apparently 3) turf wars with other green groups

Transition Model – 7 “buts” (2) 4) no one cares about the environment 5) it’s too late anyway 6) I don’t have the right qualifications 7) I don’t have the energy to be doing that

Transition Model - Step 1 n Set Up a Steering Group and Design Its Demise from the Outset – atrophy – personal agendas – humility – stages 2 -5 – reforms from subgroups

Transition Model - Step 2 n Awareness raising – allies and networks – prepare community – movies – talks – events

Transition Model - Step 3 n Lay the foundations – other groups – existing projects – official bodies – businesses – collaboration

Transition Model - Step 4 n Organise a Great Unleashing – coming of age – powerful, passionate, informative, inspirational – timing – content – making connections

Transition Model - Step 5 n Form “working groups” – starting new groups – bringing in existing groups – guidelines – training – working groups and the steering group

Transition Model - Step 6 n Use “Open Space” – shouldn’t work! – requirements – preparations – World Café n Harrison Owen - Open Space Technology: A User’s Guide n Peggy Holman and Tom Devane’ The Change Handbook: Group Methods for Shaping the Future

Transition Model - Step 7 n Develop visible practical manifestations of your project – not a talking shop – chose carefully – lure in fence-sitters – team building potential – getting dirt under your fingernails

Transition Model - Step 8 n Facilitate the Great Reskilling – Grandma, what was it like when you were a kid? – repairing, cooking, fixing bikes, natural building, loft insulation, dyeing, herbal walks, gardening, basic home energy efficiency, making sour doughs, practical food growing (the list is endless…) – eg WWOOFing

Transition Model - Step 9 n Build bridges to Local Government – becomes crucial – don’t wait too long… – open door – Community Development Plan – elections…!

Transition Model - Step 10 n Honour the Elders – elders as a community resource – 1930 to 1960 – moving from oil scarcity to abundance – oral history – community infrastructure – not about going backwards

Transition Model - Step 11 n Let it go where it wants to go… – focus on the questions – unleash the community – any sense of control is illusory

Transition Model - Step 12 n Produce and start to implement the Energy Descent Action Plan – assess current situation – create 15 -20 year vision for all key areas – integrate with community plan if possible – identify steps needed to get there – start the work

What have they achieved so far…? (1) Totnes 8 films, 11 talks, 7 events n 10 -week “skilling up for powerdown” course n seed sharing days n oil vulnerability auditing n Estates in Transition n local food directory n local currency (phase 2) n oral history archives n nut tree capital of Britain n transition stories n lobbying (food and sustainable building regs) n community plan engagement n Totnes Renewable Energy Company n Lewes school workshops n grow your own food courses n rug making course n mending course n Lewes non-plastic bag n library books on sustainability n many events, talks and films n Penwith many films and talks n food and farming day with Soil Association n reskilling – composting toilets and reedbeds n

What have they achieved so far…? (2) Brixton green mapping / urban agriculture project n permaculture design course n films and talks n presenting to school boards on peak oil and climate change n urban food growers network day n Bristol many films, talks and events n transition training 2 -day course n city orchard (central buying of trees for productive planting by individual homeowners n guerilla gardening n photo exhibition and competition of “living more, using less” n Stroud CSA, local food festival n tool share n textile courses, visits to hemp manufacturers, fashion show n planning Stroud Hemporium n Heinberg meeting with council n Transition “think tank” with local council n many events and talks n

Changing the myth from…

Changing the myth to…

Our choice… n We’ll be transitioning to a lower energy future whether we want to or not. Far better to ride that wave rather than getting engulfed by it.

Transition Initiatives Thank you Ben Brangwyn