PATHWAYS FOR TRANSFORMING THE GERMAN ENERGY SYSTEM BY
PATHWAYS FOR TRANSFORMING THE GERMAN ENERGY SYSTEM BY 2050 Methodology and Results of a Comprehensive Energy System Simulation and Optimization Dr. Andreas Palzer, Dr. Thomas Schlegl Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE 27 th Forum: Energy Day in Croatia Zagreb, 16 th November 2018 www. ise. fraunhofer. de
The Fraunhofer-Gesellschaft at a Glance The Fraunhofer-Gesellschaft undertakes applied research of direct utility to private and public enterprise and of wide benefit to society. € 2, 3 billion Overall Budget Contract Research € 2. 0 billion 25, 300 staff 72 institutes and research units Major infrastructure capital expenditure and defense research Almost 30% is contributed by the German federal and Länder Governments. More than 70% is derived from contracts with industry and from publicly financed research projects. 2017
Fraunhofer ISE Business Areas Annual budget 89 Mio € 1200 employees Energy Technologies and Systems Photovoltaics Solar Thermal Technology Silicon Photovoltaics Building Energy Technology III-V- and Concentrator Photovoltaics Hydrogen Technology Emerging Photovoltaic Technologies Energy System Technology & Energy Storage Photovoltaic Modules and Power Plants 3
Agenda n Motivation n Brief introduction of the “Renewable Energy Model – REMod” n Results n How can a target system look like? n How does it cope with high amounts of fluctuating RE? n What costs are to be expected? n Conclusion 4
Deep transformation of our energy systems n Climate and sustainability targets are key topics on the global political agenda n Energy supply causes major parts of anthropogenic climate change n Clear target energy systems with drastically reduced CO 2 emissions n Political targets of reducing dependency on energy imports n RE technologies are highly competitive n But: the pathway is highly complex Powerful tools & models needed for comprehensive optimization of energy system transformation pathways 5
Motivation Objective – Reduction of Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions reference year 1990 n Target: -80 % up to -95 % (referring to 1990) n Sectors: n Approx. 45 % in the electricity sector n Rest: Heat, transport & industry GHG emission in Mio. t. CO 2 eq. Germany: Target value Target greenhouse gas emission 1400 1200 1000 - 20 % - 40 % 800 600 400 - 55 % 85 % - 70 % 200 - 95 % 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Substantial GHG reductions are required in all "energy" sectors 6 - 80 %
Major questions n How can heat (buildings, industry processes) and transportation sectors become less dependent from fossil energy sources? n How can the complex overall system be transformed towards achieving climate targets without compromising on security of supply and at minimal cost?
REMod – Cross-sectoral energy system model GHG emissions per sector CO 2 -target Target function: Minimization of total system costs Hourly optimization. Non-linear. All energy sources, converters, storages and consumption sectors Boundary conditions: Security of supply and CO 2 emissions (Tech. costs, life times, efficiencies, …) Energy converters until 2050 (all sectors) Hourly profiles (demand Sector-coupled operating results Data input , weather) Energy converters today (all sectors) 8 System costs of transformation
Methodology New installations, retrofit, replacement Stock 1990 1991 1992 … 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 … 2048 2049 2050 Conventional & renewable power (PV, Wind, …) Buildings and heating systems Mobility (car fleet etc. ) Processes in industry and tertiary sector Simulation (1 h time step) of the entire system from 2018 to 2050 CO 2 -limits met (for all years)? Storage (electricity, heat) Power-to-X-technologies Optimization of new installations, retrofit and replacement goal function: minimal cumulative total cost 2018 -2050
Exemplary Results Development of power generators and storages n Strong increase of fluctuating RE VRE n Conventional power plants need to be operated increasingly flexible PV n Battery storages only for short-term load balancing Wind Capacity in GWhe. I Battery Storage Electricity Storage GT/ CCGT Coal Stationary 11 Conventional Power Plants Electrolysis Methanation Lignite Hard coal CH 4 -GT CH 4 -CCGT (Heating grid) H 2 -GT
Exemplary Results CO 2 emissions Number of Technologies in Mio. 12 CO 2 in mio. t per year Heating technologies - 90 % Heating technologies Fuel cells Heat pumps Gas boiler Oil boiler Heating network
Exemplary Results Share of annual mileage Development of motorised private transport 13 Passenger Car BEV ICE-CH 4 ICE-Fuel FCEV
Exemplary Results Industry Industrial Process Heat (<480 °C) Share CHP Electrodes boiler Gas boiler Heat pumps Biomass boiler 14 Boiler (biomass) Solar heat Heat pumps Boiler (oil) Boiler (electric) CHP [CH 4] Boiler (H 2) Boiler (coal) Boiler (CH 4)
How does the system cope with high amounts of fluctuating RE? 15
Hourly energy balance Exemplary summer week in 2050 power [GWh/h] electricity generation PV Positive residual load storage discharge, residual electricity generation, DSM Wind electricity use power [GWh/h] Negative residual load storage charge, power-to-gas/fuel, DSM hour of week 16 Palzer, A. : Sektorübergreifende Modellierung… Ph. D thesis at Karlsruher Institut für Technologie KIT, publication in summer 2016 Residual load = base load minus renewable generation
What costs are to be expected? 17
Cost Cumulative total energy system cost until 2050 in billion € n Cost difference in the range of 500 bn € … >2500 bn € n Mainly investments build a new system n Approx. 0, 5… 2, 5 % of German GDP (2017) n External costs not included (e. g. health cost due tomissing air Strongly CO 2 pollution, consequential costs due to climate change) targets n No consideration of macro-economic benefits (i. e. value creation, employment, planning reliability) 18 Results from: https: //energiesysteme-zukunft. de/themen/sektorkopplung/
Cost development for » No restriction « scenario Overall macro-economic energy system cost in bn € per year Energy system transformation Business as usual 19 Results from: https: //energiesysteme-zukunft. de/themen/sektorkopplung/
Our model is widely used and recognised 20
Scientific papers 21
Media coverage http: //www. et-energie-online. de www. faz. net 22
Industrial Collaboration Quelle: https: //www. youtube. com/watch? time_continue=173&v=HXRclyoruvg Industrial Advisory Board consisting of approx. 50 companies / institutions (i. a. BASF, innogy, Siemens, Thyssen, …) 23
Conclusions n Transformation of energy systems in line with GHG emission reduction targets seems in principle technically feasible n Renewable energies (in particular solar and wind) become dominant n Importance of electric energy increases two times more n Coupling of sectors electricity use (directly, indirectly) for heat and mobility n Short term storage and use of flexibilization options (e. g. load shifting) n Large scale conversion of renewable electricity into synthetic energy carriers (hydrogen, liquids, chemicals, methane) n Efficiency and limitation of consumption essential: far lower cost and lower needed capacity for wind and solar societal acceptance n New system cost competitive on the long run, i. e. once major investments have been made and the system transformation has been completed 24
Thank you for your attention! Acknowledgements: Prof. Hans-Martin Henning, Dr. Andreas Palzer Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE Dr. Thomas Schlegl, thomas. schlegl@ise. fraunhofer. de Dr. Andreas Palzer, andreas. palzer@ise. fraunhofer. de www. ise. fraunhofer. de
Results Power generation and installed capacity of VRE Installed Capacity VRE Capacity in GWe. I Energy in TWhe. I/a Electricity Generation -85% & No import Current trend n Doubling of power generation by 2050 (~1000 -1200 TWhel) n Four to six times as much installed capacity of VRE (~400 - 600 GWel) n Highest installed capacity required if no import of synthetic fuels is available 26
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