Past Present and Probable Future of Atmospheric Carbon
Past, Present, and Probable Future of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Dr. Robert Mac. Kay http: //cs. clark. edu/~mac/Carbon. Cycle. ppt
Acknowledgement • Aslam Khalil, PSU Physics • Clark College
Outline • Introduction/ Motivation • Natural and Anthropogenic sources of change • Recent temperature record • Past CO 2 • Present CO 2 • A simple mathematical/conceptual model • Future projections • Future emissions • Discussion
Natural and Anthropogenic Climate Forcing
No Atmosphere
Today’s Atmosphere
John Tyndall ~1867 “The aqueous vapour constitutes a local dam, by which the temperature at the earth's surface is deepened; the dam, however, finally overflows, and we give to space all that we receive from the sun. ”
John Tyndall ~1867 “Aqueous vapour is a blanket more necessary to the vegetable life of England than clothing is to man. Remove for a single summer-night the aqueous vapour from the air which overspreads this country, and you would assuredly destroy every plant capable of being destroyed by a freezing temperature. The warmth of our fields and gardens would pour itself unrequited into space, and the sun would rise upon an island held fast in the iron grip of frost. ”
Greenhouse Gases • Water Vapor • Carbon Dioxide • Ozone • Methane • Nitrous Oxide • Chlorofluorocarbons
Cooling to offset warming
http: //data. giss. nasa. gov/gistemp/graphs/
Carbon Dioxide in Prehistoric times
Vostok Ice Core data
http: //cs. clark. edu/~mac/physlets/Global. Pollution/CO 2 assign. htm
http: //cs. clark. edu/~mac/physlets/Global. Pollution/carbon_dioxide. htm
http: //cs. clark. edu/~mac/physlets/Global. Pollution/carbon_dioxide. htm
http: //www. newscientist. com/article/dn 10507 -carbon-emissions-risingfaster-than-ever. html
US Carbon emissions through 2004 http: //cdiac. ornl. gov/trends/emis/em_cont. htm
China’s carbon emission through 2004 http: //cdiac. ornl. gov/trends/emis/em_cont. htm
Russia’s carbon emission through 2004 http: //cdiac. ornl. gov/trends/emis/em_cont. htm
India’s carbon emission through 2004 http: //cdiac. ornl. gov/trends/emis/em_cont. htm
Fossil Fuel Reserves ~40 yrs Oil ~80 yrs Natural gas ~200 years coal
World Population http: //www. physicstoday. org/vol-57/iss-7/p 47. html
Fossil Fuel Reserves Oil http: //www. physicstoday. org/vol-57/iss-7/p 47. html
http: //www. eia. doe. gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/feature_articles/2004/worldoilsupply/oilsupply 04. html
Fossil Fuel Reserves Natural Gas http: //www. physicstoday. org/vol-57/iss-7/p 47. html
Fossil Fuel Reserves coal http: //www. physicstoday. org/vol-57/iss-7/p 47. html
http: //chooseclimate. org/jcm/index. html
http: //chooseclimate. org/jcm/index. html
http: //cs. clark. edu/~mac/Carbon. Cycle. ppt
- Slides: 41