Party Polarization A deeper Exploration Party Systems Party

Party Polarization A deeper Exploration

Party Systems • Party polarization – Sharp divisions between the two parties – Congress is most polarized today since 1956 – Measured in Congress using roll call votes • Party unity: frequency and strength – How often does the party vote as a cohesive bloc? – How strong is party bloc vote: unanimous, 90 percent, or 60 percent? – Measured in public opinion as well • Party identification, election margins of victory

First Some Graphic Representations • For each of the following graphs, write down at least 2 things that they tell about the nature, depth and/or causes of polarization for discussion in class tomorrow.

What produced the present polarization? • 1. Not Historically this way • 2. The Constitutional system does make it all too possible • 3. The evolution of the present deadlock • 4. Structural basis for polarization: demographics and districts

Not Historically this way – True after the CW radical republicans v. Burbon Democrats • issues of reconstruction – Post WWI , great depression, WWII polarization went way down , – low immigration also a factor • Sense of shared national identity takes time.

The Constitutional system does make it all too possible – Founders presumed “republican virtue” among the citizenry – • Jefferson = yeoman farmers, • philosophical blacksmith – Different constituencies for House, Senate, President mean that polarization and party deadlock is possible.

The evolution of the present deadlock – The counterculture and the 60’s – Enter Nixon. . • Vietnam and the anti-war • An affluent working class – silent majority • Southern Strategy – Reagan democrats • Culture wars • Coalition with the Rel Right – Newt Gingrich 1992 • Contract with America

Structural basis for polarization: demographics and districts • Demographics • the arms race in campaign finance • Mobilization of one’s base = negative advertising • technology • Tragedy of the commons: • Democrats don’t need rural or suburban white voters, = esp males

Demographics • The economic decline of the Midwest Rust Belt and the rapid growth in the Sunbelt were also big parts of this process. • It's difficult to draw competitive districts in a deeply polarized country. Americans are geographically segregated along a variety of demographic lines, and most demographic groups side decidedly with one party or the other. • The Lone Star State has 254 counties, 244 of which were won by either Obama or Romney by at least 10 points.

The arms race in campaign finance • These days, the average Senate candidate raises and spends $9 million to win election, which works out to slightly more than $4, 000 for each day of a six-year term. For the average House candidate, it’s $1. 4 million, or just under $2, 000 per day in office (including Saturdays, Sundays and holidays). These sums are several times what they were 25 years ago.

Mobilization of one’s base = negative advertising • the real effect of negative advertising is to – 1. – 2. • Especially effective in primaries and midterm contests. – Now true also in… • another important advantage: • Thus perpetuating the cycle

technology • you can tailor your messages to different groups. • the rise of “independent campaigns” run by PACs, unions, business organizations and other special interest groups has also heightened the polarization.

Tragedy of the commons • The individual pursuit of rational self-interest by parties and politicians, which in political and economic theory is supposed to generate the best outcome, but….

Democrats don’t need rural or suburban white voters, = esp males • Democrats have been constrained since the 1960 s by fear of losing the blue-collar, rural, and older white voters who traditionally made up the conservative end of their electoral coalition. – House Blue Dogs, as well as swing-state and red-state Democrats in the Senate, • In 2012, Obama lost more than three-fifths of noncollege whites and whites older than 45; he carried only one-third of noncollege white men, the worst performance of any Democratic nominee since Walter Mondale was buried in Ronald Reagan’s 1984 landslide. Yet Obama nonetheless won a solid victory by posting strong numbers with minorities (a combined 80 percent), the millennials (60 percent), and college-educated white women (46 percent overall and more in many key states); moreover, each of those groups expanded its share of the total vote. (For the first time, white women with college degrees cast more votes last year than white men without them. )