Ozone and PM Data Analysis and CWS Achievement

Ozone and PM Data Analysis and CWS Achievement Determination S. Beauchamp, D. Waugh, C. Farrell, R. Tordon MSC-A

Ozone/PM Data Analysis June 9, 2004 18 Z • • O 3 and PM data support to regional AQI's ozone/ PM climatology - e. g. episodes, diurnal, seasonal, annual trends, transport patterns H H L L

Ozone and PM Data Analysis • • • O 3 and PM data AQ prediction model development, evaluation, application (CHRONOS, AURAMS). continued support the AQPP forecasting and forecast verification O 3 and PM outreach: CAOL, AIRNOW.

Ozone and PM - CWS Canada Wide Standards: • • data re-analyzed within the context of CWS achievement AQ measurement linkages with KCAC and CI

Ozone and PM - CWS Altitude (m) • assessment of transboundary transport & source regions

Ozone and PM - CWS AQ Modeling: • • • support to prov. Joint Implementation Planning collaboration with Quebec region on AQ modeling in Eastern Canada linked with MAGS (CMC). established new Eastern Canada grid (include offshore).

Ozone and PM - CWS Modeling: • • • regional exceedance database. case studies (2001 -2003) selected with Que. and Atlantic (fed/prov) CWS WG. CHRONOS model run for June 2001 base case. AQUA Modis Visible Satellite Image – 1730 UTC; June 9, 2004. Note the ‘hazy’ conditions due to the elevated particulate matter content, extending through the bottom half of the image – from Central New Brunswick and south.

Ozone and PM - CWS Modeling: • • • AURAMS run for June 2001 base case. Comparison of CHRONOS and AURAMS O 3/PM with measured data. CHRONOS run with no Canadian emissions (transboundary assessment).

Ozone and PM - CWS Modeling Next Steps: • • run CHRONOS on new grid; AURAMS next. assess provincial contributions (CHRONOS) model 2010 emission projections to assess CWS jurisdictional achievement. select future year emission reduction scenarios (w/Moran)

A: Base Case - all emissions B: US Emissions only - Can off A-B diff: Canadian contribution CHRONOS CWS Modeling Case Study June 20 2001 00 Z

Ozone and PM - Research Related Research: • • enhanced N (Kej) BAQS • enhanced PM • special studies: • ICARTT-TIMS • RIALTO Planned projects: • • regional air sheds NAESI 24 hr air shed - Keji

Ozone and PM - Research Planned projects: Beef Cattle /km 2 - 1996 NAESI • 1) development standards and guidelines for pesticide spray application (Ernst) • 2) role of ammonia in PM formation (Vet) Livestock Manure Production -1996 N Production – Livestock Manure

Ozone and PM - Research Regional Health Studies: • • QEII Health Sciences Study - respiratory/cardiac admissions and AQ (incl. pollen/spores). CIHR Centre for Research Development - rural health strategy

Ozone and PM - Research 10% reduction in ozone and a 20% reduction in PM 2. 5 by 2010 Socio-economic: • AQVM - AQ health cost-benefit analysis (BAQS) Scenario #3 – used 2001 Census data, reduction in PM 2. 5 is reached by 2010, constant ambient concentrations between 2010 -2019, and ambient data was updated based on Average of NAPS annual data 1997 -1999. Expected Reduced Number of Incidences of Health Effects 2010 -2019 Saint John County, Charlotte County, Queens County, and Kings County Ozone Effect Mortality Chronic Bronchitis Respiratory Hospital Admission Cardiac Hospital Admission Scenario #3 2. 88 7. 37 - PM 2. 5 Scenario #3 38. 40 99. 40 7. 93 6. 69 Emergency Room Visit 31. 50 36. 80 Asthma Symptom Day 7, 558 10, 382 Restricted Activity Day - 114, 388 Minor Restricted Activity Day 29, 412 - Acute Respiratory Symptoms 56, 871 171, 890 Child Acute Bronchitis - 762

Ozone and PM - Research 10% reduction in ozone and a 20% reduction in PM 2. 5 by 2010 Socio-economic: • AQVM - AQ health cost-benefit analysis (BAQS) Scenario #3 – used 2001 Census data, reduction in PM 2. 5 is reached by 2010, constant ambient concentrations between 2010 -2019, and ambient data was updated based on Average of NAPS annual data 1997 -1999. Undiscounted Future Health Benefits Saint John County, Charlotte County, Queens County, and Kings County ('000's) Ozone Benefits PM 2. 5 Scenario #3 12, 648 Scenario #3 Mortality $ $ 168, 696 Chronic Bronchitis $ - $ 24, 089 Respiratory Hospital Admission $ 52 $ 56 Cardiac Hospital Admission $ - $ 60 Emergency Room Visit $ 19 $ 22 Asthma Symptom Day $ 370 $ 509 Restricted Activity Day $ - $ 8, 922 Minor Restricted Activity Day $ 1, 029 $ Acute Respiratory Symptoms $ 910 $ 2, 750 Child Acute Bronchitis $ - $ 253 Total $ 15, 029 - $ 205, 357

SMOG R&D Summary Ozone/PM Measurement Network Ozone/PM Climatology Ozone/PM and CWS - exceedences of CWS - transboundary transport - model applications: JIP - marine emissions and regional air quality Special Studies - regional air shed - enhanced N (Keji) - RIALTO - ICARTT/TIMS - NAESI Regional Health Studies Socio-economic (AQVM)

Thank You … Keith Puckett Maris Lusis Bob Vet Dave Mac. Tavish Jeff Brook Richard Leaitch & the ICARTT team Jan Bottenhiem Mario Benjamin Gilles Morneau Nedka Pentcheva Sylvain Menard Richard Moffet L-P Crevier Tom Dann Luc White NSDOE NBDELG Michael Hingston … and many others