Overview of CEDM work on climate and weather

Overview of CEDM work on climate and weather

A 1: Water and low carbon energy technology A 2: Hurricane impacts, and DA of modification A 3: Climate change and extreme events A 3. 1: Drought A 3. 2: Flooding (possibly including US/EU comparison) A 3. 3 Implications of force majuere A 4: Economics and other consequences of ocean acidification A 5: Multiple stressors an coastal waters (also context for M 2) I 1: CO 2 emissions from filling in for variable and intermittent wind and PV I 2: Energy impacts of water desalination I 3: CC and air quality interaction I 4: AC in public spaces during heat waves S 1: Continued studies of the science and economics of SRM and its potential impacts S 2: Development of strategies for how best to manage knowledge about how to perform SRM S 3: Continued support and involvement in the broader public discourse on SRM 2

A 1: Water and low carbon energy technology A 2: Hurricane impacts, and DA of modification. A 3: Climate change and extreme events A 3. 1: Drought say just A 3. 2: Flooding (possibly. I’ll including US/EUacomparison) word about Iris’ A 3. 3 Implications of force majuere Then I will A 4: Economics and other consequences ocean acidification work onofthis. elaborate on A 5: a Multiple stressors an coastal waters (also context for M 2) this and say I 1: CO 2 emissions from filling in for variable and intermittent wind and PV bit more about our recent I 2: Energy impacts of water desalination I 3: CC and air quality interaction workshop. I 4: AC in public spaces during heat waves S 1: Continued studies of the science and economics of SRM and its potential impacts. S 2: Development of strategies for how best to manage knowledge about how to perform SRM. S 3: Continued support and involvement in the broader public discourse on SRM. 3

Southwest US drought variability: Cold vs warm Pacific Polar Jet Stream L Warm Pacific Jet Stream Wet Warm East Pacific: El Niño or PDO+ phase H Cold Blocking high Wet pressure Variable/weaker Pacific Jet Stream Polar Jet Stream Dry Warm Cold East Pacific: La Niña or PDO- phase 4

To investigate variability in precipitation with the PDO, Iris has focused on Arizona and New Mexico. • The impact of the PDO on precipitation varies with other climate patterns: ENSO, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the PNA. • A clear distinction of the PDO signal in rainfall data may be hindered by the changing role of the PDO over the course of the year. Precipitation during winter and the Moonsoon season depend on very different processes that are differently impacted by the PDO. Considering these factors, she has done a drought projection for the next two decades. 5

The impacts for the current negative PDO phase are projected to be 1. 6 times as large as the impacts of the A 1 B Scenario on P-E during 2020 -2040 when evaluated according to the GPCC dataset, and about equal to the impacts of the A 1 B Scenario when evaluated according to the CRU dataset. This means that if future impacts of the PDO on precipitation are comparable to past impacts, the effect of the current negative PDO will at least double the expected impacts of global warming until 2030. The projected precipitation impacts of the combination of a negative PDO phase with a positive AMO phase are about twice as large as the impacts of the A 1 B Scenario on P-E during 2020 -2040 when evaluated according to the GPCC dataset, and about equal to the impacts of the A 1 B Scenario when evaluated according to the CRU dataset. 6

S 3: Continued support and involvement in the broader public discourse on SRM October 2011: BPC report on U. S. research March 2011: SRMGI Kavli Center June 2011: Lima IPCC expert meeting on geoengineering Jan 2012 Jan 2011 January 2011: La Jolla IGBP workshop on ecosystem impacts of geoengineering Paper now in press at AMBIO SRMGI August 2011: Second multiuniversity summer study program for graduate students and other young investigators held at Banff 7

S 2: Development of strategies for how best to manage knowledge about how to perform SRM 8