OverReacting to Trends in Violent Crime Jeffrey A

(Over)Reacting to Trends in Violent Crime Jeffrey A. Butts, Ph. D. August 6, 2009 3: 00 pm Auditorium Washington Renaissance Hotel Juvenile Crime: Trends and Perceptions Presented to the Juvenile Detention Alternatives Initiative Conference, Annie E. Casey Foundation

2 Crime Trends are Easily Distorted by Policymakers for Temporary Political Gain • Especially violent crime and drug crime • Especially juvenile crime • Some distortions may even be well-intended (e. g. , to focus lawmakers on domestic issues)

3 National Trends in Juvenile Arrests

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5 This increase, while not large in relative terms, captured the attention of policymakers and the news media in 2006 and 2007. It was almost entirely due to a change in robbery arrest rates.

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17 Note the similarity in robbery arrest rates and weapon arrest rates.

18 Common Debating Trick • Dismiss national trends as meaningless • Argue that focus should be on local data • Cherry-pick data that best suits your argument

19 Violent Crime in 100 U. S. Cities Chapin Hall at the University of Chicago 2008 Method: Simple Visual Inspection of Long-Term Trends

20 100 Largest Cities Participating in UCR from 1985 -2007 4 Types of Crime Trends n 1. Generally Decreasing 50 67% 2. Relatively Stable/Unclear 24 14% 3. Increasing Somewhat 17 13% 4. Generally Increasing % (pop. ) 9 6% 100%

Generally Decreasing 21 50 Cities 67% of the population Including: Albuquerque Anaheim Baltimore Boston Chicago Dallas Houston Jacksonville Long Beach Los Angeles Miami Nashville New York Newark Phoenix Raleigh San Diego Seattle

Stable or Unclear Trends 24 Cities 14% of the population 22

Increasing Somewhat 17 Cities 13% of the population 23

Generally Increasing In the remaining 9 cities (6% of the population) Violent crime grew either: (1) in a relatively sustained way, or (2) so sharply that the gains from the 1990 s were being nearly erased 24

Generally Increasing Anchorage, AK Birmingham, AL Fremont, CA Greensboro, NC Las Vegas, NV 25 Lexington, KY Modesto, CA Norfolk, VA Pittsburgh, PA In all but one of these cities (Anchorage), violent crime fell between 2007 and 2008

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44 Simply Put: Crime rates just vary – usually in unexplainable and unpredictable ways We are most likely to distort the meaning of trends when we try to interpret short-term changes (2 or 3 years) Just look at 4 of the cities we were all very worried about in 2005 and 2006…

Cities With Previously Disturbing Trends 45

Cities With Previously Disturbing Trends 46

Cities With Previously Disturbing Trends 47

Cities With Previously Disturbing Trends 48

Cities With Previously Disturbing Trends 49

50 The only thing we know about the future is that it will be different. - Peter Drucker