Outermost Regions Climate Change Antnio Domingos Abreu antoniodabreunetmadeira
Outermost Regions & Climate Change António Domingos Abreu antoniodabreu@netmadeira. com
Small Islands and OR’s ü Reduced size ü Limited natural resources ü Natural disasters ü Isolated ü Vulnerable and exposed economies ü High population density ü Vulnerable natural systems
Main climate change impacts OR’s and small islands ü Sea level rise ü Changes in wind and rain regimes ü Soil balance changes ü Changes of local wave and near shore sea conditions ü Coastal based socieconomical activities
Climate Change - main trends ü Increase of mean temperature ü Sea level rise ü Less precipitation ü More frequent extreme events
Special issues ü Development, sustainability and equity, ü Sea level rise ü Coastal changes ü Biological systems and biodiversity ü Water, agriculture and fisheries ü Human health, settlements, infrastructures and tourism
Development, sustainability and equity ü < 1% of GHG contribution ü Exposed and vulnerable economies ü Need of scale adaptation measures
Sea level rise ü 5 mm/year in the next century ü Social and economical implications ü Adaptation within their natural and social boundaries. . .
Coastal zones ü Human contribution to coastal zone change ü In the next 50 to 100 years these changes will increase ü Need to assure resilience of coastal zones ü Higher social and economical costs of adaptation
Natural systems and biodiversity ü Natural systems are the basis of the economical stability of OR’s ü 33% of the endemic species of the flora are insular endemisms ü 23% of the insular bird species are endangered ü Changes in the composition, structure and dynamics of natural systems
Water, agriculture & fisheriess ü Water availability and food production will always be critical factors in the OR’s ü Most of water is from rain origin ü Loss of soil, erosion, saline intrusion, ü Changes in the abundance and distribution of fisheries
Human health, settlements, infrastructures and tourism ü Potential increase of biological induced and water related diseases ü More critical situations linked to extreme events ü Vulnerability of infrasctructures, including touristic and those located on risk zones,
Adequated and adapted management ü Information ü Monitoring ü Mitigation ü Adaptation
Scenarios & models
Precipitation - Madeira (2071 -2100) Dry Winters & wet Summers Perda anual (in mm) Significant loss of precipitation
Temperature Madeira (2071 -2100)
Sectoral Impact Assessment ü Water ü Forest ü Biodiversity ü Agriculture ü Tourism ü Human health ü Energy ü. . .
Potential Impacts on forest and agriculture q Changes in the distribution zones - altitude; q Higher forest fire risks; q Changes on primary production.
Impacts on Tourism ü Comfort ü Health risks ü Landscape ü Natural disaters Média 1970 -2004 Funchal
Human Health Regional Climatic changes Potential effects on human health • Death/diseases due to temperature & climatic extreme events (floods/dry/rain) • Extreme events Levels of air polution • Temperature Contamination vectors • air polution related effects • Diseases promoted by water and food • Precipitation Transmission dinamics • Diseases transmited by bilogical vectors
The near future ü Climate change is a fact ü It is prioritary to monitor the trends ü Mitigation and adaptation measures ü Participation ü Is this possibe to deal with climate change challenges on a OR’s scale?
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