OUTCOME FROM WINTER TPARC WORKSHOP Zoltan Toth Yucheng

OUTCOME FROM WINTER TPARC WORKSHOP Zoltan Toth & Yucheng Song http: //wwwt. emc. ncep. noaa. gov/gmb/ens/index. html 1

OUTLINE • SUMMARY • LOGISTICS • OBSERVING ASSETS • SCIENCE PLAN • OPERATIONAL PROCEDURES • APPLICATIONS / EVALUATION • OUTREACH 2

SUMMARY OBJECTIVE • Improve High Impact Event (HIE) forecasts for North America by – Better understanding / analyzing / predicting • Processes affecting Pacific wave guide OBSERVING ASSETS • Main field phase mid-January – end February 2008 • Confirmed availability of – NOAA G-l. V, USAF C 130, Russian radiosonde network SCIENCE PLAN • Refined for • – Data assimilation, sensitivity, forecast diagnostics, applications Focus on diagnosing and improving failed forecast cases CONTRIBUTORS / PARTICIPANTS • Funding for observing assets • – NOAA, Env. Canada, Roshydromet, Japan Science / operational aspects – US, Canada, ECMWF/UK, Mexico, Russia, Japan OPERATIONAL PROCEDURES • Daily input from operational forecasters and researchers • – SDM support for 24/7 operations Agreed on – Decision mechanism, timeline, contact points, communication channels EVALUATION • All science hypotheses to be formulated & shared prior to field phase • Thorough end-to-end evaluation within pre-Winter Olympics demo setting • Proposed T-PARC session at THORPEX Symposium (Monterey, CA, May/09) 3

WORKSHOP LOGISTICS • Objective • Date, place • Attendance – Refine science and operations plans – 8 -10 Oct 2008, NCEP – – NOAA – NWS – NCEP – EMC Environment Canada Mexico DOD • • NRL AFWA • ECMWF, UKMET, CMA, CPTEC – International observers • Presentations • Synergy • More information – Informal, to expose issues and start discussion – Joint session with NAEFS Workshop, 8 Oct. 2008 – http: //wwwt. emc. ncep. noaa. gov/gmb/ens/TPARCWkshop_Oct 2008. html 4

OUTCOME OBSERVING SYSTEM ENHANCEMENTS • Preparations for observing system enhancements reviewed & acknowledged – Main field phase between mid-Jan – end Febr • Noted climatologically more favorable conditions in W-Pacific during Feb-Mar – Found that shift from mid-Jan through end of Feb is not possible • Main assets – G-l. V deployment to Japan (10 Jan – 28 Febr) • 12 Z flights favored due to noise restrictions at Yokota AFB – 00 Z flights would be in daytime – is that an option? – Russian radiosonde enhancement • 600 extra ascents during 10 -15 IOPs – 4 times per day (instead of standard twice a day) at selected ~20 (out of 35 total) stations – adaptive selection – USAF Reserve C-130 • Leverage off WSR 09 deployment to Anchorage – 2 aircraft, 14 Jan – 16 Febr • Fly G-l. V & C 130 possibly at same time (12 Z) • Additional resources – High resolution satellite derived winds • NESDIS Automated Motion Vector, JMA hourly data – Possible wind LIDAR measurements • ONR P 3 – Dave Emmitt & LIDAR WG initiative – Pacific lightening data • Observations to be used for – Improving NWP analysis / forecasts – targeting – Better understanding of dynamical / physical processes relevant for NWP forecasting 5

OUTCOME - 2 DATA ASSIMILATION • Importance of DA in improving forecasts for HIE noted – Flow dependent covariance needed for proper use of obs • Advances in obs, DA, NWP system make this ever more important? • THORPEX DAOS WG asked to suggest testable hypotheses for improving high impact weather forecasts SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS • Effect of DA systems on data impact must be incorporated into sensitivity / targeting analysis • Potential of recent adjoint-based DA-fcst diagnostics tools noted for – Observing system design – Encourage use of tools for analysis of high impact events (in addition to global norms) 6

OUTCOME - 3 TARGETING • Statistical nature of DA noted – Targeting to be evaluated statistically • Not all individual cases will show benefit • Need for sustained (in time / space) observations for high impact suggested – W-TPARC to sample large sensitive areas multiple times • Dynamical nature of error evolution noted – Need for sensitivity analysis – Is it possible to predict sign, not only amplitude, of data impact on forecasts? • Extended range targeting studies encouraged w adjoint / ensemble methods – Follow spatial/temporal evolution of sensitive areas – More promising in cases of strong dynamical developments • Difficulty in blocked / cutoff cases – Low perturbation growth cases not successful? – Use local norm in sensitivity analysis to focus on selected high impact event – Use OSE and OSSE studies for W-TPARC and other periods to • Compare efficiency of SV vs. ensemble methods • Derive regime dependent sensitivities • Evaluate data impact both in – Cumulative sense (cycling) – Individual cases (use same background for analysis with / without extra data) 7

OUTCOME - 4 STUDY OF FAILED FORECASTS (“DROP-OUT CASES”) • Cases of low fcst skill critical for improved high impact fcsting – Add diagnostics from ensemble to separate initial state vs. model problems • Compare error growth with ensemble variance growth • Nonlinear error / perturbation evolution • • – Test extension of sensitivity analysis to longer ranges Physical process modeling limitations discussed – Data collection for further research – Potential value of ensemble data • Collaboration with ensemble community including operational centers encouraged • Eg, Hovemuller diagrams of ensemble spread vs. forecast error Potential for using OSSE studies with new type of simulated nature – Hires integration relaxed to follow large scales in operational analysis • Check realism of upscale energy transfer & wave-breaking – In-depth data impact etc analysis of W-TPARC period SOCIO-ECONOMIC APPLICATIONS • Assess costs / benefits of improved products and their use for HIE – Optimal design of observing system, incl adaptive component • Brian Mills, Rebecca Morss to stay involved, post experiment analysis • NOAA, NSF, NASA coordinated SERA initiative to include W-TPARC studies • Optimization of flight tracks for fuel economy using ensemble guidance • Need for strong user outreach / applications emphasized – FAA – airlines? – Study with G-l. V? – Strong link with Winter Olympics noted • Complex user evaluation of T-PARC data impact in NAEFS context – Winter Olympics demo project, Febr 12 -28 2009 – Possible TIGGE-LAM demo project in 2010 8

OUTCOME - 5 WINTER T-PARC OPERATIONS • Timeline (Eastern time) – 9: 00 am Case selection request from 3 Natl Weather Services to SDM » Researchers send additional requests to lead scientist – 9: 30 am Prioritized list by SDM – 10: 00 Lead scientist uploads case list to ECMWF DTS web page – 2: 00 pm Basic sensitivity results uploaded to DTS Additional sensitivity results on centers’ own websites – 3 -4 pm Teleconference with all scientists, consensus decision about observing system enhancements – 5: pm Final decision transmitted to SDM – 5: 30 pm SDM sends out obs system request to CARCAH & Roshydromet • Points of contact – Lead Scientists – 9 am – 5 pm - 1 -301 -763 -8000 • Yucheng. Song@noaa. gov (ext. 7516) • Mozheng. Wei@noaa. gov (ext. 7581) – Senior Duty Meteorologist (SDM) at NCEP – • sdm@noaa. gov – 301 -763 -8298 (or 301 -763 -8000/ext. 7361) • 24/7 availability regarding case selection and observing system status 9

OUTCOME - 6 OUTREACH • PIs to share science hypotheses prior to field phase • Links – Strong connections with NAWDEX – THORPEX PDP involvement with both Winter T-PARC & NAWDEX • Serving PDP goals – DAOS recommendations discussed • Objectives served – GIFS-TIGGE • Use of TIGGE data encouraged in Winter T-PARC • NAEFS enhancements to feed back later into GIFS developments – YOTC – Tropical influences – Multi-scale forecast experiment over Pacific – 2 -way nesting LAM - ONR? • Additional products requested for W-TPARC – Analysis uncertainty estimates (NCEP) – Wave packet analysis (UM if possible) – Sensitivity charts • Compare with – Total precipitation (diabatic processes – for detailed flight planning) – Eady index (for diagnosing instantaneous instabilities) – Satellite look-alike charts • Show in Hovmueller diagram • NCEP GEFS major upgrade for NAEFS by start of Winter T-PARC? • Spread the word about Winter T-PARC – Request from Winter Olympics demo from MSC – – Prepare Workshop summary for BAMS publication Organize Townhall meeting at AMS Annual meeting, Jan 2009 Organize special session on T-PARC (incl summer) at THORPEX Symp, May 09 Organize special session at next Cyclone Workshop 10

BACKGROUND 11