Our Climate Our Faith Our Future The Science

Our Climate, Our Faith, Our Future The Science (and Politics) of Climate Change: How to Respond? 4/13/2010 Mt. Washington Presbyterian Church

A Little More of the Science • Before we get to new things, do you have any reactions from last time (e. g. from the IPCC report)? • Let’s start with the video we didn’t catch last time; • then we’ll move along to the non-science and political machinations…. .

Introducing: Greg Craven

What is (good) science? 1. Science is not about proof, it’s about theories: Scientists propose theories (which are hypotheses on steroids, that have generally passed many tests). A theory is only a scientific theory if it is falsifiable. Theories must make testable predictions: if a theory makes a prediction that is not borne out, then theory is false (broken). If we can’t perform any such tests, then theory has no power: it’s just an act of faith. Faith is good, it’s just not science.

What is good science? (cont. ) 2. Science is without bias (well, it’s supposed to be, at any rate!): – There’s obvious bias (agenda trumps facts); when the coal company weighs in on GCD, why am I skeptical? – There’s more subtle bias: • A drug researcher owns stock in company • Al Gore reputedly has a stake in carbon trading companies (just “putting his money where his mouth is? ” – what if others are putting their money there because of his mouth, and he’s reaping the financial rewards? Might he trump up the science…. ) – Then there’s Confirmation Bias, referred to by Greg.

What is good science? (cont. ) 2. Science is without bias: – obvious bias (agenda trumps facts) – subtle bias: promoting something in your self-interest – Confirmation Bias — the notion that we overlook what we don't agree with, and accentuate what we want to hear: we start with belief and then look for evidence. “The only way to have real success in science… is to describe the evidence very carefully without regard to the way you feel it should be. If you have a theory, you must try to explain what’s good about it and what’s bad about it equally. In science you learn a kind of standard integrity and honesty. ” Richard Feynman, Nobel Laureate

Midwest: Summer: public health and quality of life will be negatively affected by increasing heat waves, reduced air quality, and increasing insect and waterborne diseases. Increase in precipitation in winter and spring, more heavy downpours, greater evaporation in summer (more periods of both floods and water deficits) Longer growing season: potential for increased crop yields, subject to Increases in heat waves, floods, droughts, insects, and weeds present increasing challenges to managing crops, livestock, and forests. Native species to face increasing threats from rapidly changing climate Source: U. S. Global Climate Research Program

Vostok Ice Core Data Deniers say: Doesn’t CO 2 lag Temperature?

Setting the Record Straight… • While some television weathercasters are skeptical about the role human activity plays in climate change, most meteorologists agree that human activity is driving global warming. According to an official statement of the American Meteorological Society, "strong observational evidence and results from modeling studies indicate that, at least over the last 50 years, human activities are a major contributor to climate change. “ • That statement is consistent with others from the National Academy of Sciences, the U. N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, NASA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the American Geophysical Union, the American Physical Society and other scientific institutions • Source

What is non-science? • Denialism: what happens “when an entire segment of society, often struggling with the trauma of change, turns away from reality in favor of a more comfortable lie. ” [Michael Specter, Firing Bullets of Data at Cozy Anti-Science] • We don't know our science well enough to insult it properly. • Non-scientists demand proof.

What is non-science? • Denialism • We Americans don't know our science, and neither do our “leaders” – Sen. Jim De. Mint (R-S. C. ): “it’s going to keep snowing in D. C. until Al Gore cries ‘uncle. ’” – Sen. Mitch Mc. Connell (R-KY) quipped, “Where’s Al Gore now? ” – Sean Hannity: “It’s the most severe winter storm in years, which would seem to contradict Al Gore’s hysterical global warming theories. ” – Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich: “Historic snowstorm in Washington — third this year — where is Al Gore to explain it snows this heavily as a sign global warming is imminent. ” – 28% science literate – Science News, 3/13/2010 • Non-scientists demand proof.

What is non-science? • Denialism • We don't know our science. • Non-scientists demand proof, as though science is mathematics: – Deniers don’t understand that there's no scientific consensus on anything. Complete consensus is the death of a theory. – There's no consensus on gravity — scientists are looking for evidence that disproves the inverse square law of gravity (i. e. they’re trying to falsify it!) – The absence of complete consensus on humancaused global warming does not pardon us from the need to act – even if we choose not to act.

What leads us so far astray? Scientific Opinion versus Public Opinion on Climate Change: Pew Center. Scientists were selected from the American Assoc. for the Advancement of Science

Blowing Smoke with GCD? January 4, 1954: A Frank Statement to Cigarette Smokers March 10, 2010: Lawmakers from Coal States Seek to Delay Emission Limits (New York Times)

Introducing: Don Blankenship CEO, Massey Energy

So…. • How do we talk to people like Don? • How about the average Joe? • How can we make a difference?