OST Horizon Scanning Centre What is Horizon Scanning

OST Horizon Scanning Centre What is…. . Horizon Scanning? ESRC Research Methods Festival 2008 St Catherine’s College, Oxford 02 July 2008 Dr Harry Woodroof Leader, Delta (S&T) Scan Horizon Scanning Centre Government Office for Science Department of Innovation, Universities and Skills Bay 250, Kingsgate House, 66 – 74 Victoria St, London. SW 1 E 6 SW +44 (0)203 300 8840 Harry. Woodroof@dius. gsi. gov. uk <http: //www. foresight. gov. uk/horizonscanning/>

OST Horizon Scanning Centre Prime Minister and Cabinet Professor John Beddington Government Chief Scientific Adviser and Head of GO-Science Government Office for Science (GO-Science) The Foresight Programme Horizon Scanning Centre Foresight projects smaller projects, entire policy spectrum (large (18 months), science-based) Social Technical Economic Environmental Political strategy

OST Horizon Scanning Centre HSC Aims (from 10 year S&I investment) – launched March ‘ 05 • Inform strategic prioritisation across UK Govt • Capability-raising in Govt Depts Implemented through: • Targeted projects • Training • Strong networks Future Analysts Network (FAN) Club 30+ projects, 30+ depts. , 1000+ in training / networking events, Direct impacts on Govt. Strategy, Policy, Skills, Prioritisation

OST Horizon Scanning Centre Horizon Scanning is. . . “…. the systematic examination of potential threats, opportunities and likely developments including but not restricted to those at the margins of current thinking and planning. Horizon scanning may explore novel and unexpected issues as well as persistent problems or trends. ” (Chief Scientists Advisers Committee, Sep 2004)

OST Horizon Scanning Centre Horizon scanning is…… Looking ahead – beyond usual timescales Looking across – beyond usual sources …. resilience and adaptability in strategy beyond a ‘single expected future’ to a ‘range of possible futures’ to consider implications for today’s decisions

OST Horizon Scanning Centre What horizon scanning is … and isn’t • It is NOT about: – Predicting the future • It IS about: – Exploring possibilities for the future to ensure that your strategies are robust

OST Horizon Scanning Centre Range of horizon scanning activity Social Technical Economic Environmental Political scanning engagement to achieve impact PURPOSES Strategic change management Science & Technology FORESIGHT Developing issues INSIGHT Implications (so what? ) ACTION Decisions (from IFTF) Strategic prioritisation Policy decisions Risk Threat management identification S&T research priorities

OST Horizon Scanning Centre Nature of horizon scanning • The evidence-based policy “paradox”: – Policy is about solutions for the future – But conventional “evidence” is about the past • We can project trends forwards… but all trends eventually change • The parable of the turkey • HS is an approach to resolving the paradox by drawing on tacit knowledge and the wisdom of crowds (diversity is v. important)

OST Horizon Scanning Centre Horizon Scanning – Evidential Tools (published Dec 06) www. sigmascan. org (everything) www. deltascan. org Outsights / Ipsos MORI Delta Scan: cutting-edge perspectives of over 250 S&T experts Institute for the Future S SCAN Sigma Scan: synthesis of best global futures work

OST Horizon Scanning Centre Sigma scan • Right to live: right to die? • Global courting : the supremacy of international law. • Increase in e-commuting. • UK rules OK : isolationist Britain. • End of public broadcasting. • Ghettoisation of minority populations. • Landfill capacity limits reached. • Economic impact of ageing. • The “rights” of robots. • Corrupting aid flows • …………………. Delta (S&T) scan • Active biomaterials for regenerative medicine. • Quantum chemistry for pollution abatement. • Nanowire sensors for DNA testing. • Advent of molecular archaeology. • Computing on the human platform. • Solar: the energy wild-card. • From ink-jet printing to personal fabrication. • Brazil’s expanding tech. sector. • ………………….

OST Horizon Scanning Centre Scan Architecture - linking evidence and analysis – Summary sentence – Supporting analysis (paras) – Bullet-points • • • Implications Barriers/inhibitors Early indicators Parallels/precedents Leading institutions – Sources : evidence-based • Multi-level outputs – Range : single sentence to great detail – Portal for further research

OST Horizon Scanning Centre HSC “scan of scans” & “expert views” In common with much futures/foresight work, the Scans are designed to challenge current thinking and implicit assumptions. They do not to attempt to predict the future.

OST Horizon Scanning Centre Sigma Scan “scan of scans” The Sigma Scan is a synthesis of future issues and trends covering the full public policy agenda drawn from a range of sources (including think tanks, academic publications, mainstream media, corporate foresight, expert/strategic thinkers, government sources, alternative journals, charities/NGOs, blog sites, minority communities, futurists).

Adam Smith Institute Arlington Institute Atlantic Monthly Brookings Institution Cato Center for Trade Policy Studies Centre for European Reform Centre for Strategic and International Studies Chatham House British Social Attitudes Survey Centre for Environmental Research, Columbia University e-Living (EC 5 FP) Project ESRC Centre for Business Research, Institute of Development Studies Foreign Affairs Los Angeles Law Review Hoover Digest Policy Studies Review Independent Commission on Population and Quality of Life Russian Journal, The Science Institut de Recherche en Politiques Publiques Institute for Fiscal Studies Europe 2020 Future of Work Futures Futurist Central Intelligence Agency (US) Commonwealth Secretariat Competition Institute for the Future Commission Mc. Kinsey Global DEFRA Baseline Scan Institute DEFRA Forward Look MORI Polls Department for Culture, Shaping Tomorrow Media and Sport Shell Global Department for Scenarios International Development Siemens Horizons Department for Work SRI Consulting and Pensions World Future Society Department of Education (US) Science and Public Policy Department of Health Department of Justice (US) World Values Survey Department of Labor (US) Amnesty International Board of Deputies of British Jews British Council Countryside Alliance International Red Cross and Red Crescent Movement Make Poverty History campaign Muslim Council of Britain Oxfam Trade Union Congress World Health Organization World Trade Organization Institute for Public Policy Research SIGMA : scan of scans the top Horizon Scan sources Think tanks global coverage Academic publications both ‘traditional’ and ‘unconventional’ Mainstream media Corporate Foresight Charities/NGOs Expert/Strategic thinkers Blog sites Government sources Minority communities Alternative journals Futurologists

Sigma Scan Provenance Process 1. Overview scan Leading Futures sources scanned for key issues 2. Issues ‘tree’ Range of issues identified from mainstream-marginal. 3. Issue generation 1. Brainstorming, noting and scoping 2. Sources: review available evidence 3. Drafting within defined text-fields 4. Review and further referencing 4. Internal QC Partnership: 3 stages of edit 5. ‘Horizon’ review Horizon panel: Issue topics sensechecked and reviewed for gaps 6. External review & gap filling Stakeholders, end-users and experts: engagement, enrichment & gaps

OST Horizon Scanning Centre Delta (S&T) Scan “expert views” The Delta (S&T) Scan is an overview of future science and technology issues and trends, with contributions by science and technology experts from the worlds of government, business, academia and communication. Interviews Workshops wiki

OST Horizon Scanning Centre 2008 refresh : issue selection criteria Gap: is not already covered sufficiently in the Sigma-Delta Scan Relevance: theme or trend is potentially relevant to a wide range of UK policy stakeholders and departments, or strongly relevant to a smaller number of departments/policymakers. Impact: theme or trend could have significant impacts on important aspects of UK Government policy. Evidence: theme or trend is underpinned, at least to some degree, by a critical mass of authoritative, credible evidence. Stimulus: theme or topic is future-focussed and not merely descriptive of current reality or known variables and reporting. It either describes something new or casts new light on an existing issue.

OST Horizon Scanning Centre Developing robust and sustainable strategies Where we are now Creation of vision (horizon scanning) How we get there Exploration of uncertainties (horizon scanning) Where we want to be Analysis of past evidence Analysis of core certainties (modelling, forecasting)

OST Horizon Scanning Centre Asia Task Force, PBR 05, Instrumental in shaping trade policy & UKTI Strategy, EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES Example Project Impacts IDENTITY MANAGEMENT Crosby/HMT – public/private forum Key statement on ID policy architecture [HMT, HO, Industry, LSE, Liberty] ? 14 Depts. prioritisation HMT CSR Publication SR Guidance Informs public dialogue Mo. D strategic trends HSE future of work OSI CSR bid ? INTERNATIONAL FUTURES PROJECT 20 perm secs, 13 depts HMT (International Institutions) FCO/Df. ID/Mo. D – cross-dept strategic issues UKTI – comparative advantage OSI International Strategy, BERR – Board strategy DIUS - ? , etc. , …

OST Horizon Scanning Centre Good communications material to achieve impact Science & academia : “Work not published = Work not done. ” Government : “Work not : • put in front of the right decision-makers; • at the right time; • in a format they can easily understand use = Work not done.