Organizational Demand Analysis Chapter 6 Forecasting n Why
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Organizational Demand Analysis Chapter 6
Forecasting n Why is forecasting important?
Organizational Demand Analysis n Market Potential • “Maximum possible sales of all sellers of a given product in a defined market during a specific time period. ” n Sales forecast • “Maximum share of market potential an individual company might expect for a certain product or product line. ” n Example
Forecasting n Where to get information? • Internet Census bureau n Competitors n Customers n • Issues
Forecasting n Potential for Planning Strategy • Forecast helps to plan: Engineering design and implementation n Marketing and commercial development n External stakeholders n n Potentials: Planning and Controlling by Segment • Segment market • Allocate expenditures
Forecasting n n Life Cycle Potential Role of the Sales Forecast • What does it do? n Applying Market Potential and Sales Forecast • Market potential • Sales forecast • Supply chain implications
Determining Market & Sales Potentials n Statistical Series Methods • • n Easy if Example Single Series Method 1. Make sure series is related to demand for product 2. Determine the relationship 3. Estimate future values 1. 2. Independently forecasting Rely on government or industry forecasts 4. Determining market potential
Market Research n Surveys • Advantages • Disadvantages n Role of Forecasting
Market Research n Forecasting Methods • Qualitative methods (AKA management judgment and subjective techniques) n Executive judgment • Advantages • Disadvantages n Sales force composite • Advantages • Disadvantages n Delphi method • Advantages • Disadvantages
Market Research n Forecasting Methods • Quantitative methods (systematic or objective forecasting) n Time series • Historical data to project future • Components n Trend n Cycle n Seasonal n Irregular
Market Research n Regression or causal techniques • Determine relationship between sales and an outside variable • Requirements • Limitations n Spurious relationships n Historical data n May not work n Several methods= Better accuracy
forecasting longterm forecasting middleterm forecasting shortterm forecasting 2
Demand Supply Analysis Demand Demand effective desire Demand
Group III Demand Forecasting Demand forecasting n Objectives
CHAPTER 5 DEMAND FORECASTING COLLABORATIVE PLANNING FORECASTING REPLENISHMENT
Introduction Definition Forecasting Technology Technological Forecasting Process Forecasting
DEMAND SUPPLY 2192013 1 Demand Analysis Demand refers
MARKET DEMAND ANALYSIS What is Demand Demand is
Forecasting Demand Forecasting Methods Qualitative Judgmental Executive Opinion
