Ordem e Progresso or nem ordem nem progresso

Ordem e Progresso or nem ordem, nem progresso?

Brazil Random Facts • • Portuguese Empire Almost 200 million Bigger than the lower 48 of the US Invented the airplane?

Early Brazil • Brazilian independence • Imperial Brazil • First Republic

Getulio Vargas • 1930 -1945 – Gaucho – Centralizes Brazilian poltics – Increase state intervention in economy – Estado Novo – First mass-based politics

Second Republic, 1945 -1964 • Democratic politics • ISI policies and related crises • Juscelino Kubitschek, President 1956 -1960.

The Brazilian Political System in the Second Republic • Weak President – Majority veto override – No decree power • Complex Legislative System – Multiparty, high fragmentation. – Party-Switching – Open-list proportional representation

Political System, Cont • Net Result: – Executive leadership difficult – Pork and Vote-buying an essential part of legislative coalitions.

Growing tensions • Economic problems associated with ISI • Stabilization program would alienate workers and left. • Polarization • Military Thinking: ESG – US helped to set up in 1949

Janio Quadros • Janio Quadros – Elected 1960 – V-P Joao Goulart – Brilliant or crazy? – Resigns hoping for more power

Joao Goulart, V-P • Will he become President? – In communist China at the time of the coup – Military despises him – He flies home indirectly (China-Paris-RS) • Solution: Parliamentary system? – Weak President (Goulart) – Tancredo Neves, Prime Minister

Goulart • Regains full Presidential powers via plebiscite, 1963 • Challenges – Economic – Military Politics – Rural mobilization – Stalemate • Coup d’Etat, 1964 – Was it really a coup?

New form of Authoritarianism • Military Governments in Brazil – Previously - clean house and leave – This time…. they stayed until 1985 • “Bureaucratic Authoritarian” Regimes – Authoritarian – Bureaucratic - apolitical technocrats given control.

Brazil’s military government • Pseudo-Democracy • Brutal - but not Argentina, not Chile? • Castello Branco 64 -67 – 1966 Elections and political parties – ARENA and the MDB • Costa e Silva 67 -69 (hard-liner) – Repression of labor and politicians – AI-5 – Insurrection, crushed by 1973

Military Government, Cont

Central Features of the New Republic • The Party System – Open-List Proportional Representation with low barriers to entry. • Inequality, clientelism, and patronage politics. • A Strong Presidency • Federalism?

1. Brazil’s Party System • Mass partisanship is extremely low, in contrast to other countries. • Many parties earn seats in Congress – usually more than 20. • Politician’s success has little relation to their partisanship. • Correlation between President and Deputy vote shares is …. . 0 • Why?

Open List Proportional Representation X Y Z Joao 25 Miriam 11 Dilma 14 Marta 3 Wigold 10 Gisela 13 Gabriela 2 Maria 7 Roberto 5 Sebastian 1 Jose 6 World Peace 2 Fernando 1 Itamar 2 Ulysses 1 32 36 31

Typical campaign ad, OLPR

Another OLPR Ad

Impact of the Party System • President’s party never has a majority. Lucky to get 20% of the seats in Congress. • The other 80% of the seats are held by the other 20 or so parties. • So how does anyone get anything done in Brazil? • Presidency + $

2. Strong Presidency • Executive has central role in budget, and expenditures are “optional”. • Executive has “decree authority” – can write “medidas provisorias”, with temporary force of law. • Result: executive forms large multi-party coalitions for governing, and uses decree authority when necessary.

3. Inequality/Poverty a prerequisite? • • Why do parties “sell out” so easily? Greed Poverty “When it gets dark out there, it get’s really dark”. • Voters in many places don’t care about your stand on world peace. They just want you to get things done.

Some Perspective • The legislature is fragmented, lacks accountability – and is largely for sale. • The executive uses pork and decree authority to govern. • In this sense, representation “works”. The most important votes anyone casts are for the Presidency. • Key difference from 1946 -1964: the legislature is weaker.

4. Federalism? • Brazil is divided into 27 states plus a federal district • Historically, state politics have spilled over into national politics • Those influences are still present for legislators but much weaker for presidents. • Evidence: roll-call votes, presidential tickets, and reforms.

Recent Political History • • • 1985 -1989: Jose Sarney (ARENA) 1989 -1992: Fernando Collor (PRN) 1992 -1994: Itamar Franco (PMDB) 1995 -2002: Fernando Henrique Cardoso (PSDB) 2003 -2010: Luiz “Lula” da Silva (PT) 2011 - : Dilma Rousseff (PT)

Lula: Change or more of the same? • Founding member of the Worker’s Party, 2 nd grade education, metal worker. • As President: – Multiple corruption scandals. – Expands CCT’s to poor. – Economic boom. • Extremely popular with poor, extremely unpopular with middle/upper • New class cleavage or “rouba mais faz”?

New Directions in Research on Brazil • A worrisome increase in judicial politicization.

New Directions • The enduring problem of race • The racial myth in Brazil is one of equality color blind attitudes, and shared heritage. • Brazil is more than 50% “black” • Most of the afro-brazilians are poor. Most of the elites are white

An Experiment

Not a Racial Myth? No picture White Mixed Black Japanese Treatment . 28 . 18 . 22 . 21 Control . 72 . 82 . 78 . 79 n 151 160 145 152 155

But with more choices… White Subjects Mixed Subjects Black Subjects C. Race White Black Diff 3 . 20 . 183 +. 02 . 20 . 22 -. 02 . 11 . 40 -. 29 6 . 22 . 26 -. 04 . 23 . 24 -. 02 . 30 . 42 -. 13 12 . 21 . 11 +. 14 . 19 . 25 -. 05 . 17 . 46 -. 29

New Directions: Brazil’s International Future • Still struggles with a perverse combination of pride and shame • Desires a seat at the table (UN Sercurity Council) • But will struggle with conflicting themes: nonalignment, anti-American, and democracy.

My favorite punchline • Everyone would love to have Brazil’s problems.