Opportunities and Challenges with the new USMCA Agreement

Opportunities and Challenges with the new USMCA Agreement as viewed by Ports to Plains. Local to Global Forum March 8, 2019 Medicine Hat, AB

T H E A L L I A N C E

Mission Statement Ports-to-Plains is a grassroots alliance of communities and businesses whose mission is to advocate a robust international transportation infrastructure to promote economic security and prosperity through North America’s energy and agricultural heartland including Mexico and Canada.

A Corridor of National Significance • A Congressionally-Designated High Priority Corridor • An Energy Corridor • An Agricultural Corridor • An International Trade Corridor • A Jobs and Economic Development Corridor • A Connectivity Corridor • A Congestion Relief Corridor (For I-25 and I-35)

International Trade Corridor Canada -- US Total Trade (truck) 2004 $20. 3 billion 2017 $30. 0 billion A 50% Increase

International Trade Corridor Canada -- PTP Trade (truck) 2004 $3. 7 billion 2017 $7. 1 billion A 92% Increase ü Compared to 50. 00% National Increase

International Trade Corridor Mexico -- US Total Trade (truck) 2004 $69. 7 billion 2017 $149. 2 billion A 114. 1% Increase

International Trade Corridor Canada -- PTP Trade (truck) 2004 $26. 8 billion 2017 $62. 1 billion A 132% Increase ü Compared to 114. 1% National Increase

UNITED STATES-MEXICO -CANADA AGREEMENT (USMCA) Over 1800 pages Most Public Understanding based on a series of 140 character tweets

Big Changes for Cars • Starting in 2020, to qualify for zero tariffs, a car or truck must have 75 percent of its components manufactured in Canada, Mexico or the United States • Substantial boost from the current 62. 5 percent requirement.

Big Changes for Cars • Starting in 2020, cars and trucks should have at least 30 percent of the work on the vehicle done by workers earning $16 an hour. • That gradually moves up to 40 percent for cars by 2023.

Big Changes for Cars Winners -- Upside • Union Labor • Increased Wages Help North American Workers Losers - Downside • Consumer • Increased Vehicle Costs

Milk Market • Canada opens up its milk market to U. S. farmers • Canada to eliminate the pricing scheme for what are known as Class 7 dairy products. That means U. S. dairy farmers can probably send a lot more milk protein concentrate, skim milk powder and infant formula to Canada (and those products are relatively easy to transport and store)

Milk Market • Also imposes some restrictions on how much dairy Canada can export, a potential win for U. S. dairy farmers if they are able to capitalize on foreign markets.

Milk Market Winners -- Upside • U. S. Dairy Farmers Losers - Downside • Canada Dairy Farmers

Chapter 19, Special Dispute Process • Stays Intact • Allows Canada, Mexico and the United States to challenge one another’s antidumping and countervailing duties in front of a panel of representatives from each country.

Chapter 19, Special Dispute Process Winners -- Upside • Canada Losers - Downside • United States? ? ?

Steel and Aluminum Trade • Steel and Aluminum tariffs stay in place (for now) • The 25 percent tariffs on steel and 10 percent duties on aluminum are staying put for now.

Steel and Aluminum Trade Winners -- Upside • U. S Steel and Aluminum Producers Losers - Downside • Canada Steel Producers • U. S. Consumers • Stumbling Block to Ratification

Ratification • United States • Agriculture Pushing Congress • Mexico • Steel and Aluminum Tariffs are a Stumbling Block • Canada • Steel and Aluminum Tariffs are a Stumbling Block

What Happens if Ratification Fails? • Trade between U. S. , Canada and Mexico will continue • Consumers in the U. S. , Canada and Mexico will pay the price

Thank You Joe Kiely Vice President of Operations