Operations Analysis in Bulgaria and NATO Klaus Niemeyer

Operations Analysis in Bulgaria and NATO Klaus Niemeyer - Operations Analysis in Bulgaria and NATO

Sun Tzu and Scientific Support Victory Comparison Calculation Assessment Measurements Ground ANCIENT Success Operations Analysis Model Application (Simulation) Model Mathematics, Physics, . . . Perception of Reality TODAY Klaus Niemeyer - Operations Analysis in Bulgaria and NATO 4

Definition of Operations Research "OR is a scientific method of providing executive administrators with a quantitative basis for decisions regarding the operations under their control. " Morse, Kimball 1950 Klaus Niemeyer - Operations Analysis in Bulgaria and NATO 5

Evolution of Modelling and Simulation Reality Noise Analyses Reduction of Complexity Research Core Model Prototyping Engineering Construct Testing Adding Complexity Training Construct Syntheses Noise Construct Noise Klaus Niemeyer - Operations Analysis in Bulgaria and NATO 9

The Operations Analysis Problem For given objectives: Defense Planning What is the best composition, and: What is the best employment of forces in order to optimize x xxx Operational Planning III xx resources? "To win without fighting is best. " Sun Tzu Klaus Niemeyer - Operations Analysis in Bulgaria and NATO 11

OA in NATO üNATO(NC 3 A, Military HQ, (RTO), . . ) üUSA (Rand, IDA, …) üUK üGermany üFrance üCanada üThe Netherlands üNorway üDenmark üTurkey ü…. Klaus Niemeyer - Operations Analysis in Bulgaria and NATO 12

Joint Analysis Problem Solution Tools Options Scientists Military Planners Klaus Niemeyer - Operations Analysis in Bulgaria and NATO 14

Wide Scope of Processes Defense Planning Operational Planning INTELLIGENCE FORCE IDENTIFICATION DEFENSE STRUCTURE DEPLOYMENT CONTINGENCY PLANNING INFRASTRUCTURE PREPARATION TRAINING PEACE REDEPLOYMENT ENGAGEMENT PREPARATION IN THEATRE SUSTAINMENT FORCE PREPARATION TRANSITION Klaus Niemeyer - Operations Analysis in Bulgaria and NATO OPERATION 15

Decision Cycle Objective Mission Analysis of Objective Perception Force Comparison Situation Analyses Own Forces Environment -Terrain -Weather -Population Opponent Forces -Capability? -Intention? Anticipation Development of Options Planning “What, if’” Assessment of Options Decision Planning Status Klaus Niemeyer - Operations Analysis in Bulgaria and NATO Execution 16

Present Issues üOperational Support üTraining: CAX üCapability Requirements üConcept Development & Experimentation üNet Enabled Capabilities- C 4 ISR Klaus Niemeyer - Operations Analysis in Bulgaria and NATO 18

Logical Build up of Objectives Analyses Methodology Centre of Excellence Scientific Basis in Bulgaria Project: 7/10/04 Start 1 2 End Year Sf. P 981149

Criteria of Success ü 1. Objective: Centre of Excellence (25%) ü Accepted papers in international magazins ü Hired scientists in NC 3 A ü 2. Objective: Methodology (25%) ü Participants in OR conferences ü RTO-SAS/NMSG participation ü 3. Objective: Analyses (50%) ü Tasking organisations in Bulgaria ü Projects for NC 3 A Klaus Niemeyer - Operations Analysis in Bulgaria and NATO 20

TACOM Exercise General Structure Control/Leadership Training/Teaching Generation of Knowledge Participants Dialogue Environment Simulation (Script) Klaus Niemeyer - Operations Analysis in Bulgaria and NATO 21

TACOM: Standard Software Script ( Preparation) MS-Word MS-Outlook (Macros) Powersim (Simulation) Communication, Events, Situation Documentation (Exercise) MS-Excel MS-Access Map Objects/Arc. View (Situation) MS-Visual Basic (Applications) MS-Data Access Objects Klaus Niemeyer - Operations Analysis in Bulgaria and NATO 22

TACOM software architecture Participants Message Handling System Scenario Command&Control Static Messages Dynamic Script Display System Simulation Klaus Niemeyer - Operations Analysis in Bulgaria and NATO 23

Defense Requirements Review (Plan 2015) Political Guidance Security Environment Risk Assessment Planning Situations Scenarios / Constraints Capability Requirements Force Structure Klaus Niemeyer - Operations Analysis in Bulgaria and NATO 24

Attributes Military: üOperations oriented üStaff rotation üHigh responsibility üHigh visibility üGovernment Commercial: üCompetition üProfit oriented üEffective-productive üHigh salaries üAttractive Science: ØScientific standards ØVerification/Falsification ØTransparency ØThink tank ØNot for profit ØLow salaries ØNeutral ØContinuity Klaus Niemeyer - Operations Analysis in Bulgaria and NATO 26

Fundamental Principles üNeutrality („non for profit“, no mercantile accomplisments) üContinuity (Corporate knowledge, long term employees, reputation) üFlexibility (Quick response, no bureaucratic constraints) üScientific State of Art (Link to scientific and industrial communities) üCustomer Relationship (High integration, co-operation, synergies) üManagement (Planning, Controlling, Motivation) Klaus Niemeyer - Operations Analysis in Bulgaria and NATO 27

The Optimum Organisational Structure üNon for Profit üBasic Funding üIndependent üAttractive Salaries üIntegrated into Scientific Community üClose Relation to Customer Klaus Niemeyer - Operations Analysis in Bulgaria and NATO 28

Conclusions ü Defense research organizations in Bulgaria do not have management arrangements, appropriate for the conduct of or participation in research projects, and especially international research projects. ü It is difficult to find, motivate and keep involved young scientists in the current environment in BAS. ü The culture of using OA / CAX requires considerable further promotion and improvement among end-users in the security sector. ü Support from international experts and the integration into international projects is essential for the continuity of the capability. ü The methodology of applied Operations Analysis, (not only the classical mathematical Operations Research) Modeling, and Simulation should be a key element in academic curricula. ü The existence of the established capacity can only be sustained if a sufficient funding and tasking by the end users is guarantied. ü The capacity of a “think tank” institution is a high value asset in national security structures. ü The payoff for the investment in such an institution is very large in comparison to other defense assets or in relation to potentially wrong decisions in catastrophic situations. Klaus Niemeyer - Operations Analysis in Bulgaria and NATO 29

The Change of Paradigm Research Aquisition and Development Projection of Power Forces Resources Projection of Capabilities Resources Virtual Potential Deterrence Persuasion Demonstration Klaus Niemeyer - Operations Analysis in Bulgaria and NATO 30