Opening remarks SIMON MAXWELL CBE Development Frontiers call

Opening remarks SIMON MAXWELL CBE Development Frontiers call director CRAIG BARDSLEY Head of International Development Research, ESRC ANDREW LONG Senior Social Development Advisor, GCSD research team, DFID

Issues for today • Scoping research • Brokering and supporting progress towards proposals

Development Frontiers Research Pioneering, innovative, and potentially higher risk social science-led research • Collaborative • Deep engagement of policy-makers • Broad in scope, multidisciplinary, theoretically grounded, and policy-relevant • Ranging from global to local • Sensitive to context, but also sufficiently robust to generate general lessons. • Offering new ways to tackle challenges, and both strategic and catalytic in terms of influencing positive policy and programme change.

Why are the SDGs a challenge?

Characteristics of a wicked problem

www. simonmaxw

Session 1: Scoping the field NICK MABEY Chief Executive and a founder director E 3 G (Third Generation Environmentalism)

Session 1: Scoping the field FRANCES STEWART Former Director of ODID and Director, Centre for Research on Inequality, Human Security and Ethnicity (CRISE) Oxford University

Conflict, sustainability and poverty Frances Stewart

The vicious cycle made worse • Vicious cycle between poverty and inequality and conflict: – High poverty and inequality increases conflict potential; – Conflict increases poverty and inequality. • Climate change tends to accentuate cycle: – Hits poor people and poor areas worse, increases conflict potential directly and through migration it provokes. • Research questions: – Are these links correct? – How can they be countered? 15

Defining conflict and fragility • Many definitions of conflict: – worst is large scale violent conflict; – conflict includes terrorism; – minor skirmishes (violent) – non-violent tensions and trade-offs. • Fragility = vulnerability to conflict/political instability; usually involves ‘weak’ state. • How do these relate to climate change? Focus here is on violent conflict, including terrorism. 16

Large scale conflict and poverty • Violent large scale conflict worsens the prospects for poverty reduction, and makes zero poverty target impossible. Well backed up conclusion. Especially if widen to multidimensional poverty including security. • Hence critical aspect of new agenda is reducing conflict. • Broadly accepted, but research still needed on best way to reduce poverty-causing impact of conflict and forced migration. 17

Is climate change likely to worsen conflict? Need to consider main sources of conflict Research suggests risks of conflict higher in: • Low income countries, but current Middle East situation challenges this; • Deficient productive (employment) opportunities for youth (though questioned). • Weak institutions/fragility (cause and effect). • Horizontal inequalities, political, socioeconomic. 18

In general, evidence suggests that poor countries, poor regions and poor people worst affected by climate change • Geography: tropical regions worst affected. Poorest regions within countries tend to be in areas with already scarce rainfall (eg. Northern regions of West African countries) • Poorer people usually in agriculture, worst affected. • Food prices likely to go up and to fluctuate more, affect poor most. • Poor people live on low value land; often low-lying etc. • Poor countries and people lack resources (inc. institutions) to enhance resilience. • IPCC concluded that ‘countries with high levels of income inequality experience the effects of climate change more profoundly than other countries’. (IPPC, 2007). 19

Climate change likely to make conflict more likely by • Worsening situation of poor regions and groups relatively, increasing horizontal inequalities and reducing employment opportunities. Make conflict potential (and actual) worse – Boko Haram; Al. Shabaab, Kenya group… • Leading to greater migration which will bring groups into conflict with local populations. • Hitting hard in weak states not capable (and sometimes willing) to take action. Reviews of developments in poor regions often say that ‘state is virtually absent’. 20

West Africa example Particular regions of the country (Northern Nigeria, Ghana, Cote D’Ivoire, Mali) strongly disadvantaged in rainfall. 21

Horizontal inequalities in West Africa: Northern regions: • Disadvantaged in agricultural productivity, lack commercial crops, weaker infrastructure, education etc, dating from colonial times. Eg. 80% of population in Northern Nigeria no electricity (30% in south); 80% no formal education, 30 -40% in South. Also strong identity differences • Inequalities vis-à-vis South (including political and cultural) have led to violent conflicts. • Cote d’Ivoire civil war • Mali: Tuareg rebellion • Nigeria: Boko Haram, Delta conflicts and middle belt communal conflicts. • Climate change likely to make these situations worse and increase migration to South and to other countries. 22

Appropriate policies for conflict prevention • Reduce inequalities, develop poor areas. • Although the need is ‘recognised’ in discourse, in practice: – Targets are all national and priority given to aggregate growth; – Resources for poor areas grossly inadequate; – Many diverted to Southern elites; – Focus on strengthening security; – State is frequently absent or very weak in these areas. • Climate change will increase the need for policies to reduce inequalities and poverty in deprived areas. But not the capacity or will to do so. 23

Policy approaches • Could be positive sum game: effective redistribution to poor areas would reduce poverty and conflict potential. And could also contribute to sustainability. • But conflict makes this difficult, and political will to do so absent. • National policy making critical; aid can only do so much. • For conflict prevention, political power sharing important first step 24

Some research areas • Micro/meso/local level: – Document how climate change is affecting livelihoods in poor areas. • Focus on inequalities; and productive employment. – Are insurance mechanisms available? – Are cash transfers playing a role? – Is story above correct – that rising conflict potential is associated with these climate change pressures? – Can collective action overcome conflict potential – e. g. water allocations (drawing on Ostrom etc. ) – Role of legal systems (informal more than formal) in settling disputes arising from pressure on resources. 25

Some research issues • Macro/national-level. – How far have these consideration entered national planning and discussions? , i. e. • Need for major development efforts in poorer regions • To direct compensation/insurance/ research to these areas. • Forecasts of likely developments – climate change physical effects; political effects (conflicts and migration). • Political economy of redistributory actions. – What would change macro-attitudes? – Do donors have a role? 26

Some research issues • Global/international: – Assess efforts of R and D. via CGIARs , national, regional and commercial organisations for agriculture, water conservation and use, housing etc. in climate affected areas. – Investigate ways of using global adaptation funds to protect poor people and regions and assist them in adapting. – Research the nature of climate change migration. Who is moving? Where? Future probabilities. 27

General (all levels), conceptual and theoretical rather than empirical – How to bring future generations ‘to the table’ for global and national discussions and decisions. – How to revalue GNP to integrate ‘sustainability’. – How to do the same for project and programme evaluation. – Further explorations of the links between inequality within and between countries and climate change: • Is climate change worsening inequality? Mechanisms. • Does a solution to climate change require reduced inequality? 28

Session 1: Scoping the field JOHAN SCHOT Director Science Policy Research Unit (SPRU) University of Sussex

Innovation for a World in Transition Pushing the frontiers of knowledge Professor Johan Schot - Director Science Policy Research Unit (SPRU) • Teaching and • Research addresses research closely real world problems University of Sussex intertwined • Co-producing • knowledge with stakeholders Sustained engagement and long term partners Research Impact through concepts, tools, impact capacity building, providing a knowledge base • Broad international and interdisciplinary scope • Combination of practical and theoretical elements Training the • Capacity building in next generation range of countries • Five Master programs and Ph. D program @Johan_Schot #devfrontiers •

A World in Deep Transition: Four Expressions 1. Mega Trends 2. Grand Challenges World in Transition Faltering 2. 3. Innovation Engine Sustainable Development Goals 4. Need for Deep 3. The Sustainability Transition Innovation Engine

1. Mega Trends Economic Crisis Megacities Climate Change Migration Multi-polar world New Wars Hollowing out of Nation-States

2. Grand Challenges Translated in 17 UN SDGs

3. The Innovation Engine Falters • Creative Destruction is becoming Destructive Creation

4. Deep Transition Required 1 Transition of individual sociotechnical regimes/systems 2 Need for nexus of system innovations: techno-economic paradigm 3 Moving in a similar direction World in Transition demands: Riding the ways of the megatrends, addressing grand challenges, modifying the innovation engine, working towards a deep transition of multi-socio-technical systems and avoiding a new world war.

Innovation for a World in Transition 1. Towards Co-construction: Aligning the Technological & the Social 2. Innovation Actors: Opening Possibilities, Connections & Capabilities 3. Experimentation & Participation: Multiple Pathways & Approaches 4. The Circulation Perspective: Fairer Distribution of Benefits 1. Mega Trends 2. Sustainable Development Goals 3. The Innovation Engine

1. Innovation - Aligning the Technological & the Social • Socio-technical, co 1. Mega construction, co. Trends evolution 2. Innovation Actors: Opening Possibilities, Connections & Capabilities • Avoid Technological & 3. Experimentation Social Determinism 4. The Circulation & Participation: Perspective: A 2. Multiple 3. The Transnational Pathways Value Chain Sustainable • Focus on New Innovation Development Alignments Engine Goals

2. Innovation Actors: Opening Connections & Capabilities 2. Innovation 1. Mega Actors: • ‘Mining’ knowledge from many actors – firms, Opening Possibilities, Trends governments, civil society, users, men and Connections & Capabilities women, global South & North • Draw from marginal as well as dominant sources 3. Experimentation & Participation: Multiple Pathways 4. The Circulation Perspective: A Transnational Value Chain 2. 3. The • Build capability to participate Sustainable Innovation Development Engine Goals

3. Experimentation & Participation: Multiple Pathways Innovation 1. Mega 2. Actors: Possibilities, • Explore multiple options Trends Opening Connections & Capabilities • Experimentation 3. Experimentation 4. The Circulation • Openness & flexibility & Participation: Perspective: A 2. Multiple 3. The Transnational Pathways Value Chain Sustainable Innovation Development Engine Goals

4. The Circulation Perspective • Beyond appropriation 1. Mega & diffusion Trends perspective 2. Innovation Actors: Opening Possibilities, Connections & Capabilities • Local flexibility & global exchange 3. Experimentation & Participation: Multiple Pathways 2. • Fairer distribution of Sustainable benefits Development Goals 4. The Circulation Perspective: A Transnational Value Chain 3. The Innovation Engine

Research for a World in Transition 1. Problem-focused & interdisciplinary Innovation 1. Mega 2. Actors: 2. Trans-disciplinary research building on long term Possibilities, Trends Opening Connections relationships & Capabilities 3. Bridging the divide between deeply academic & 3. Experimentation practical 4. The Circulation & Participation: Perspective: A 2. Multiple 3. The Transnational Pathways Value Chain 4. Between Constructivist as well as Positivist Sustainable Innovation Development Engine 5. Between qualitative & quantitative Goals

Thank you. SPRU is hosting a major 50 th Anniversary conference 7 -9 September on Transforming Innovation. First day focus is on policy. Please join us. More details at www. sussex. ac. uk/spru

Session 1: Scoping the field • Within this field, what problems are just wicked enough that Frontiers research can make a substantive and sustained difference to tackling them? • Where could a relatively small scale investment act as a real catalyst for change? • What ground is already well covered and should be avoided? • Without diminishing the importance of local context, how can we stimulate theoretical advances to make research insights more generalisable? To join the debate online tweet your comments and questions #devfrontiers

Session 2: Delivering Frontiers research SIMON MAXWELL CBE “World Café” style session

Delivering Frontiers Research Pioneering, innovative, and potentially higher risk social science-led research • Collaborative • Deep engagement of policy-makers • Broad in scope, multidisciplinary, theoretically grounded, and policy-relevant • Ranging from global to local • Sensitive to context, but also sufficiently robust to generate general lessons. • Offering new ways to tackle challenges, and both strategic and catalytic in terms of influencing positive policy and programme change.

Delivering frontiers research partnerships • • Self-organised collaboration or brokered process? Brokering via platform or event(s)? Short event(s) or longer event(s)? National or regional? How to secure international participation? Standard call or pre-proposals? Larg(er) projects or small(er) projects? Pay for transaction costs of proposals or concentrate on funding research?

Source: http: //www. nordp. org/assets/resourcesdocs/facilitating_interdisc_research. pdf

Session 2: Delivering Frontiers research • What needs to be done differently to generate and deliver this kind of research? What are the risks involved and when do they become too high? • What kinds of partnerships and projects are most likely to succeed and how can they be facilitated? • What are the barriers to genuine interdisciplinary research, and how can these be overcome? • What is the best way meaningfully to engage practitioners in the design, conduct and uptake of such research? To join the debate online tweet your comments and questions #devfrontiers Plenary discussion will reconvene at 16. 30

Next steps • Sharing overview and reflections from today’s discussions via programme website – www. esrc. ac. uk/dfid • Scope for further online consultation and encouragement of ongoing debate via Twitter #devfrontiers • Final announcements on process and timetable likely by end April 2016 via ESRC website – for updates email frontiers@esrc. ac. uk • Likely timetable: – Multi-stage proposal development and commissioning process to take place between May and October 2016 – Will support collaborations across disciplines, sectors and borders – Opportunities to be involved in supporting and assessing proposals – Project(s) likely to commence from Jan 2017 and complete by Jan 2019