ONE MINNESOTA CONFERENCE Susan Brower Minnesota State Demographer

ONE MINNESOTA CONFERENCE Susan Brower, Minnesota State Demographer January 2015

GROWTH IN MINNESOTA’S “OLDER ADULT” POPULATION Change in older adults, age 65+ (Thousands) 85 1950 s 55 60 s 71 70 s 67 80 s 91 47 90 s 00 s - - - 10 s 20 s 30 s 40 s 2050 s Sources: U. S. Census Bureau, MN State Demographic Center

GROWTH IN MINNESOTA’S “OLDER ADULT” POPULATION Change in older adults, age 65+ (Thousands) 335 285 85 1950 s 55 71 67 60 s 70 s 80 s 97 91 47 90 s 00 s 10 s 20 s Sources: U. S. Census Bureau, MN State Demographic Center 30 s 66 56 40 s 2050 s

AVG. WORKERS ADDED PER YEAR MINNESOTA, 16+ 38, 000 32, 000 25, 000 13, 000 8, 000 4, 000 1980 -1990 -2000 -2010 -2020 -2030 -2040 Source: U. S. Census Bureau, Minnesota State Demographic Center Projections

Labor force participation Working-age population growth Productivity growth Real GDP growth

STATES’ RISING ED ATTAINMENT & GROWTH IN PRODUCTIVITY Source: EPI analysis of unpublished total economy productivity data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Labor Productivity and Costs program, state employment data from BLS Local Area Unemployment Statistics, and college attainment data from the Current Population Survey basic monthly microdata

BLACK, LATINO AND ASIAN POPULATIONS GROWING RAPIDLY Populations of color, MN 300, 000 250, 000 American Indian 200, 000 Asian 150, 000 Black Hispanic 100, 000 Two or more races 50, 000 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Source: U. S. Census Bureau & Minnesota State Demographic Center

GAPS IN EDUCATIONAL ACHIEVEMENT AND ATTAINMENT EXIST ACROSS RACIAL GROUPS Source: Tabulated by MN Compass from Minnesota Department of Education data

FOR THE FIRST TIME IN MN HISTORY: MORE 65+ THAN SCHOOL-AGE BY 2020 1, 800, 000 1, 600, 000 1, 400, 000 1, 200, 000 1, 000 18 -24 800, 000 65+ 600, 000 5 -17 400, 000 2060 Source: U. S. Census Bureau & Minnesota State Demographic Center 2050 2040 2030 2020 2010 2000 1990 1980 1970 1960 1950 0

DEMOGRAPHIC SHIFTS WILL CHANGE DEMAND FOR PUBLIC SERVICES General Fund Expenditures 2014 -2015 Higher Education 7% All other areas 19% Health & Human Services 31% K-12 Education 41% Within Health & Human Services Medical Assistance Expenditures: 25% of GF spending (8. 5 billion) Medical Assistance Expenditures for the Elderly and Disabled: 16% of GF spending (5. 5 billion) MA expenditures include basic care, long-term care waivers and long-term institutional care Sources: Minnesota Management and Budget, February 2013. House Research, Long-Term Care Services for the Elderly, November 2012

DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE WILL SHAPE THE FUTURE…BUT NOT COMPLETELY DETERMINE IT Our demographic future is sobering IF we continue to adhere to the policies and institutions that we have built for our demographic past. Aging trend will bring new opportunities; license to innovate new pathways to wellbeing.