On Uncertainty and DecisionMaking Uncertainty is the most

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On Uncertainty and Decision-Making… "Uncertainty is the most difficult thing about decision-making. In the

On Uncertainty and Decision-Making… "Uncertainty is the most difficult thing about decision-making. In the face of uncertainty, some people react with paralysis, or they do exhaustive research to avoid making a decision. The best decision-making happens when the mental environment is focused. …That fined-tuned focus doesn’t leave room for fears and doubts to enter. Doubts knock at the door of our consciousness, but you don't have to have them in for tea and crumpets. " -- Timothy Gallwey, author of The Inner Game of Tennis and The Inner Game of Work.

Methods of Risk Analysis § Best-Case/Worst-Case Analysis § What-if Analysis § Simulation

Methods of Risk Analysis § Best-Case/Worst-Case Analysis § What-if Analysis § Simulation

Possible Performance Measure Distributions Within a Range worst case best case

Possible Performance Measure Distributions Within a Range worst case best case

Implementing the Base Case Model See file Fig 12 -2. xlsm

Implementing the Base Case Model See file Fig 12 -2. xlsm

Simulating the Roll of a Die § 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 & 6

Simulating the Roll of a Die § 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 & 6 의 값들이 동일한 확률을 가지 고 무작위로 생성되게끔 하고 싶다면 § 다음과 같이 함수를 만들 수 있다: =INT(6*RAND())+1 If 6*RAND( ) falls in the interval: 0. 0 to 0. 999 1. 0 to 1. 999 2. 0 to 2. 999 3. 0 to 3. 999 4. 0 to 4. 999 5. 0 to 5. 999 INT(6*RAND( ))+1 returns the value: 1 2 3 4 5 6

Some of the RNGs Provided By Risk Solver Platform Distribution RNG Function Binomial Chi-Square

Some of the RNGs Provided By Risk Solver Platform Distribution RNG Function Binomial Chi-Square Poisson Continuous Uniform Exponential Triangular Normal Truncated Normal Psi. Binomial(n, p) Psi. Chisquare(λ) Psi. Poisson(λ) Psi. Uniform(min, max) Psi. Exponential(λ) Psi. Triang(min, most likely, max) Psi. Normal(μ, σ, Psi. Truncate(min, max)) (이 외에도 많이 있음)

Using Psi Functions Click Insert Function icon Select Psi distribution Select Psi function

Using Psi Functions Click Insert Function icon Select Psi distribution Select Psi function

Using the Distribution Gallery 1. Click Distributions 2. Select distribution 3. Specify parameters

Using the Distribution Gallery 1. Click Distributions 2. Select distribution 3. Specify parameters

Examples of Discrete Probability Distributions

Examples of Discrete Probability Distributions

Examples of Continuous Probability Distributions

Examples of Continuous Probability Distributions

Revising & Simulating the Model See file Fig 12 -6. xlsm

Revising & Simulating the Model See file Fig 12 -6. xlsm

Constructing a Confidence Interval for the True Population Mean n 이 증가할수록, 신뢰구간의 범위가

Constructing a Confidence Interval for the True Population Mean n 이 증가할수록, 신뢰구간의 범위가 감소하는 것을 알 수 있다.

Constructing a Confidence Interval for the True Population Proportion where: Note again that as

Constructing a Confidence Interval for the True Population Proportion where: Note again that as n increases, the width of the confidence interval decreases.

Implementing & Simulating the Model See file Fig 12 -18. xlsm

Implementing & Simulating the Model See file Fig 12 -18. xlsm

Implementing & Simulating the Model See file Fig 12 -23. xlsm

Implementing & Simulating the Model See file Fig 12 -23. xlsm

Optimizing the Model See file Fig 12 -27. xlsm

Optimizing the Model See file Fig 12 -27. xlsm

Using Trends Charts to Compare Reorder Policies… Original Optimal

Using Trends Charts to Compare Reorder Policies… Original Optimal

A Project Selection Example: TRC Technologies § TRC는 $200만의 자금으로 다음의 신규 연구개발 프로젝트에

A Project Selection Example: TRC Technologies § TRC는 $200만의 자금으로 다음의 신규 연구개발 프로젝트에 투자하고자 한다. Revenue Potential Initial Cost Project ($1, 000 s) 1 $250 0. 9 2 $650 0. 7 3 $250 0. 6 4 $500 0. 4 5 $700 0. 8 6 $30 0. 6 7 $350 0. 7 8 $70 0. 9 Prob. Of Success $600 $750 $1250 $1500 $600 $1800 $1150 $1200 $150 $180 $750 $900 $220 $250 Min $900 $1600 $750 $1900 $1400 $250 $1000 $320 ($1, 000 s) Likely Max § TRC 기대 수익을 최대화시켜주는 연구프로젝트는 무엇인 가

Implementing & Simulating the Model See file Fig 12 -39. xlsm

Implementing & Simulating the Model See file Fig 12 -39. xlsm

Implementing & Simulating the Model See file Fig 12 -43. xlsm

Implementing & Simulating the Model See file Fig 12 -43. xlsm