Oil Supply Role of Oil as a finite

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Oil Supply • • • Role of Oil as a finite resource M. King

Oil Supply • • • Role of Oil as a finite resource M. King Hubbert’s method of prediction References GG 250 F-2004

Role of Oil GG 250 F-2004 8 6 4 2 2150 2100 2050 2000

Role of Oil GG 250 F-2004 8 6 4 2 2150 2100 2050 2000 1950 0 1900 • Explosive growth in world population roughly coincides with the start of large-scale oil production 10 1850 Transportation Heating Fertilizer Synthetic materials (Population in billions) 1800 § § World Population Growth, 1750– 2150 1750 • Critical commodity in industrialized countries Source: http: //www. prb. org 2

Oil as a finite resource • Oil judged to be a product of organic

Oil as a finite resource • Oil judged to be a product of organic material • Explosive proliferation of biologic activity at start of Cambrian Period (~600 m. y. ) • Consumption rate >> Generation rate (Generation rate is negligible) • Oil resources are effectively finite GG 250 F-2004

M. King Hubbert (1903 -1989) • Towering 20 th-century Earth Scientist • Vetlesen Prize,

M. King Hubbert (1903 -1989) • Towering 20 th-century Earth Scientist • Vetlesen Prize, 1981 • Probably the best-known geophysicist in the world to the general public • Seminal contributions in three areas § Mechanics of geologic structures § Physics of underground fluids § Earth's mineral resources and their significance in human affairs GG 250 F-2004 4

Hubbert’s Method Rate • Assumes recovery rate curve increases from zero, peaks, and declines

Hubbert’s Method Rate • Assumes recovery rate curve increases from zero, peaks, and declines to zero as resource is exhausted • Curve assumed to be bellshaped and symmetric • Curve can be fit to data • Curve can be extrapolated into the future • Recovery equals area under curve GG 250 F-2004 Time 5

A = peak value of r T = time where r = A Rate

A = peak value of r T = time where r = A Rate (r) Production Rate (r) as a Function of Three Variables S = T- t where r = A/e ≈ 0. 37 A r=A r = A/e S t=T Time (t) r, (T-S) also is an inflection pt GG 250 F-2004 6

Minimizing a Function of Three Variables Find the values of A, T, and S

Minimizing a Function of Three Variables Find the values of A, T, and S to minimize r GG 250 F-2004 7

References on M. King Hubbert • • • http: //www. technocracyinc. org/webtv/articles/hub-gro. htm http:

References on M. King Hubbert • • • http: //www. technocracyinc. org/webtv/articles/hub-gro. htm http: //www. hubbertpeak. com/hubbert/hubecon. htm http: //en. wikipedia. org/wiki/Hubbert_curve http: //en. wikipedia. org/wiki/Hubbert_peak http: //en. wikipedia. org/wiki/M. _King_Hubbert http: //www. hubbertpeak. com/hubbert/tribute. htm • Clark, Robert Dean, Geophysics: The Leading Edge of Exploration, "King Hubbert", February 1983. pp. 16 -24 GG 250 F-2004