OGC Technology Forecasting George Percivall OGC CTO Chief

® OGC Technology Forecasting George Percivall OGC CTO, Chief Engineer gpercivall@opengeospatial. org 2019 -06 -03 Copyright © 2019 Open Geospatial Consortium

Technology Forecasting Breadth Assess Focus Identification of Technology Trends Characterize and Prioritize Trends Take Action for Innovation • Early identification of disruptive technologies • Support discovery-driven planning OGC ® © 2019 Open Geospatial Consortium

The Innovator's Dilemma • Tech progress can, and often does, outstrip what markets need • Disruptive innovations result in worse performance, in near term – Cheaper, simpler, smaller, and, frequently, more convenient to use – Large companies overlook disruptive technologies until they make a profit • How to succeed – Identify disruptive technologies before they overtake the traditional – Discovery-driven planning OGC ® Copyright © 2018 Open Geospatial Consortium

Technology Advances are the highest anticipated transformation by CEOs Price Waterhouse Coopers CEO Survey OGC ® https: //www. pwc. com/gx/en/issues/technology/essential-eight-technologie © 2018 Open Geospatial Consortium

OGC’s response to the Innovator’s Dilemma • Maintain current OGC standards while simultaneously addressing evolution of technology and markets – Ensure harmonization in OGC standards • OGC response to Innovators Dilemma – Extend or adapt present baseline of standards – New standards that may overlap or diverge from existing standards, along with guidance to evaluate among options – Harmonization techniques (brokers, facades) for interoperability • Establish a Technology Forecasting System OGC ® Copyright © 2018 Open Geospatial Consortium

Forecasting of Technologies National Academies Report Recommended by Mike Jackson, OGC Board of Directors OGC • Need for Persistent Long-Term Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies • Existing Technology Forecasting Methodologies • The Nature of Disruptive Technologies • Reducing Forecasting Ignorance and Bias • Ideal Attributes of a Disruptive Technology Forecasting System • Evaluating Existing Persistent Forecasting Systems https: //www. nap. edu/catalog/12557/persistent-forecasting-of-disruptive-technologies ® Copyright © 2018 Open Geospatial Consortium

Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies • Technology forecasting system – Technologies, people, and processes assembled to minimize surprise triggered by emerging or disruptive technologies, in order to support decision making. • Disruptive technology – Innovative technology that triggers sudden and unexpected effects. – Brings about a sudden change to established technologies and markets (Bower and Christensen, 1995) – Difficult to identify or foresee. • Tipping point – Time at which the momentum for change becomes unstoppable OGC ® https: //www. nap. edu/catalog/12557/persistent-forecasting-of-disruptive-technologies Copyright © 2018 Open Geospatial Consortium

OGC Technology Forecasting Breadth Assessment Focus Identify and Characterize Trends Prioritize and Evaluate Trends Take Action Innovation Program e. g. planning Testbeds Standards Program Trends Mindmap Technology Roadmaps e. g. Future Directions Communications & Outreach e. g. Location Powers Member Consultation e. g. NDA Tailored forecasts/discussion OGC ® https: //github. com/opengeospatial/OGC-Technology-Trends © 2019 Open Geospatial Consortium

OGC Technology Forecasting Breadth Assessment Focus Identify and Characterize Trends Prioritize and Evaluate Trends Take Action Innovation Program e. g. planning Testbeds Standards Program Trends Mindmap Technology Roadmaps e. g. Future Directions Communications & Outreach e. g. Location Powers Member Consultation e. g. NDA Tailored forecasts/discussion OGC ® https: //github. com/opengeospatial/OGC-Technology-Trends © 2019 Open Geospatial Consortium

OGC Tech Trends Mindmap Publicly Available at: https: //github. com/opengeospatial/OGC-Technology-Trends OGC ® © 2019 Open Geospatial Consortium

Trend Identification Sources Ongoing Monitoring 2019 Q 2 Specific • OGC activities • CTO research – SP Future Directions – Innovation Program – 177 articles • OGC activities • Geospatial sources – Future Directions, Feb 2019 – MR to the Edge Workshop – OAB 2019 -06 -04 – General: – Science: AGU, ESIP – GEOINT: USGIF • Information Technology • External – Literature: ACM, IEEE, – Medium, etc. – W 3 C/OGC SDWIG Funnel – GWF – JTC 1 Emerging Tech • Broader – Atlantic, Economist, Science, etc. – Newspapers, Blogs, (long live Texture) OGC ® Copyright © 2019 Open Geospatial Consortium Perspective: Information technology and Geospatial applications as broad as possible

Trend Identification - Future • Big. Knowledge LLC – Demo and White Paper – Staff evaluation ongoing • Bo. KMap viz of network – trend analysis – novelty detection – topical density • Knowledge Sources ingest – journals, magazines, job portals, press releases, patent filings https: //goo. gl/NLufnd OGC ® Copyright © 2019 Open Geospatial Consortium

OGC Standards as Query in Data Science & Analytics Analyst Input: List of 61 Standards at www. opengeospatial. org/standards Output: Top-100 Tech Articles, Ranked by Date OGC ®

Characterizing identified Trends • Effective – New tech that makes a difference; produces an advantage • Convergence – When similar technologies from several communities become the multiple basis for an emergent trends • Tipping point – The conditions at which a bifurcation occurs, producing qualitatively different asymptotic behavior • Consider bias – Thinking, Fast and Slow - Daniel Kahneman – Peculiar Blindness of Experts - The Atlantic Perspective: Narrowing focus to role of OGC in IT and Geospatial OGC ® Copyright © 2019 Open Geospatial Consortium

Trend Characterizations – 2019 Q 2 • • Digital Twin: Static and Dynamic Web of Data (Linked Data, Property Graphs) Machine Learning High Definition maps for Autonomous Vehicles Data Science and Analtyics Immersive Geo: AR, VR, MR Quantum Computing and Sensing Smallsats and ground stations Perspective: Narrowing focus to role of OGC in IT and Geospatial OGC ® Copyright © 2019 Open Geospatial Consortium

Characterization: Machine Learning Trend Machine Learning Meta Trend Data Science and Analytics Description Subfield of computer science that gives computers the ability to learn without being explicitly programmed. Deep learning - a sub type of machine learning - consists of multiple hidden layers in an artificial neural network. from Wikipedia What is new or emerging? • 3 rd generation of Machine Learning providing revolutionary big data capabilities Why might it matter? • Significantly improved ability to to identify features in geospatial datasets, e. g. , patterns in linked data, objects in features. SW TRL Level 7 – Demo in Operational Environment IRL Level 5 – sufficient control between technologies necessary to establish, manage, and terminate the integration References • Location Powers: Big Data • OGC Big Geo Data White Paper Tipping Point Past: Image. Net 2012 OGC SP Big Data DWG OGC IP OGC Testbeds - Testbed-14: Machine Learning Engineering Report OGC ® Copyright © 2018 Open Geospatial Consortium

Characterization: Quantum Computing Trend Quantum Computing Meta Trend Information Technology Description Quantum computing is the use of quantum-mechanical phenomena such as superposition and entanglement to perform computation. A quantum computer is used to perform such computation, which can be implemented theoretically or physically. From Wikipedia What is new or emerging? • Increasing number qubits integrated on a chip – Current: 49 by Intel • Monthly announcements of new theoretical algorithms Why might it matter? • Promise of improved solutions for many difficult geospatial algorithms. • Exponential acceleration of computing on certain problems, e. g. , NP-complete such as Traveling Salesman Problem • Quantum computing and machine-learning technique SW TRL Level 1 – Basic Principles Observed and Reported IRL Level 0 – Integration has not begun References • "Quantum Computing: Progress and Prospects" - National Academies, 2019 …no fundamental reason why a large, fault-tolerant quantum computer could not be built in principle. However, significant technical challenges remain • "Case Against Quantum Computing” – IEEE Spectrum 2019 Tremendous gap between experiments that have been carried out with a few qubits and the extremely developed quantum-computing theory. That gap is not likely to be closed anytime soon. OGC ® Tipping Point Future: Quantum computer with sustained operations on substantial algorithm Copyright © 2018 Open Geospatial Consortium

Characterization: Web of Data/Linked Data Trend Web of Data/Linked Data Meta Trend Spatial Data on the Web Description Data published on the web are made discoverable, accessible and interoperable using WWW best practices for data formats, data access, data identifiers, metadata, licensing and provenance. What is new or emerging? • W 3 C Workshop on Web Standardization for Graph Data – March 2019 - Support for adding geospatial and temporal to graph query languages • Emerging progress on Property Graphs standards in JTC 1 SQL - June 2019 - Property Graph Queries as a new part of SQL standards, 9075 -16. - New declarative property graph language - may be called GQL. • Schema. org and JSON-LD Why might it matter? • OGC Environmental Linked Features Interoperability Experiment Power of OGC APIs to expose features in the context of rich domain-featuremodel-based linked data while following W 3 C best practices • Advantages similar to adding Topology to Geometry queries. SW TRL 5 Component validation in relevant environment References • OGC T 15 Scenario: Richelieu River hydro linked data harvest model Tipping Point Standards established and implemented broadly for Property Graph queries OGC ® Copyright © 2018 Open Geospatial Consortium

OGC Technology Forecasting Breadth Assessment Focus Identify and Characterize Trends Prioritize and Evaluate Trends Take Action Innovation Program e. g. planning Testbeds Standards Program Trends Mindmap Technology Roadmaps e. g. Future Directions Communications & Outreach e. g. Location Powers Member Consultation e. g. NDA Tailored forecasts/discussion OGC ® https: //github. com/opengeospatial/OGC-Technology-Trends © 2019 Open Geospatial Consortium

OGC Tech Trends Horizon • Value of technology forecasting is less about precise predictions about the future, rather to support planning and minimize surprises • Horizon is not a particular year, i. e. , what will be new tech in 2025 – Its about what should we work on “Next and after Next” • “We knew it was coming, we just didn’t think it would come that fast? – Survey the trends broadly identify those sets of trends that warrant a roadmap OGC ® Copyright © 2018 Open Geospatial Consortium

Identifying “Ripe Trends” • Criteria 1: Horizon – Now: current activity in OGC program that is leading to mature product (TRL 6+) – Next: Planned for next testbed or a SWG to happen in the next year. – After Next: Future Disruptive Ripe – High Near Ripe – Medium Sustaining Near Ripe – Medium Track – Low Next After Next • Criteria 2: Impact – Sustaining innovation • comes from listening to the needs of customers in the existing market and creating products that satisfy their predicted needs for the future. – Disruptive innovation • Disruptive innovation creates new markets separate to the mainstream; markets that are unknowable at the time of the technologies conception. OGC ® © 2019 Open Geospatial Consortium

Priority Tech Trends Ripe – High Machine Learning Disruptive Data Science UAV/UAS Near Ripe – Medium Blockchain Quantum Computing Autonomous Cars Immersive Geo: x. R Smallsats Io. T/Edge/Fog Web of Data Digital Twin Sustaining Indoor Mod, Sim, Predict 5 G Cellular Near Ripe – Medium Track – Low Next After Next = Priority OGC ® © 2019 Open Geospatial Consortium 2019 -06 -03

Roadmapping Priority Trends • Helps predict market’s future technology • Guides R&D decisions • Increases collaboration, shared knowledge and new partnerships • Reduces risk of costly investment in technology OGC ® Perspective: Anticipating actions to be taken by OGC, Members, alliances. Source: Technology Roadmapping in Canada Copyright © 2018 Open Geospatial Consortium

Cambridge Univ. Roadmapping Template OGC ® Copyright © 2018 Open Geospatial Consortium

Roadmapping Template OGC ® Copyright © 2019 Open Geospatial Consortium

Tech Notes for Priority Trends Previously Developed – Smart Cities – Geospatial Big Data – Edge and Fog Computing OGC ® © 2019 Open Geospatial Consortium

Big Geospatial Data – White Paper Geospatial Datacubes Big Data applications – Geospatial Data Representations: • Geo Features • Geo Coverages • Discrete Global Grids • Linked Data massive multi-dimensional array Extend Big Data Open Source • Analysis-Ready Data • Data registration task shifted from user to data provider • Analytics - query language OGC ® http: //docs. opengeospatial. org/wp/16 -131 r 2/16 - 131 r 2. html Copyright © 2018 Open Geospatial Consortium Screenshot source: rasdaman

OGC ® Copyright © 2018 Open Geospatial Consortium

Edge-Fog-Cloud Computing Fog Computing: Compute, Storage, and Decision making close to network edge • Geospatial Edge-Fog Computing – Address proliferation of sensors and platforms – Extend geospatial Feature detection and tracking – Edge/Fog commodity Machine learning for geospatial computing – Linked Geodata across the Edge. Fog-Cloud continuum – Autonomy for tasking in Edge. Fog using geospatial • OGC White Paper – Doc. 18 -004 Open. Fog Intelligence from data (Source: Open. Fog Consortium) OGC http: //docs. opengeospatial. org/wp/18 -004 r 1. html ® Copyright © 2018 Open Geospatial Consortium

Mixed Reality to the Edge OGC ® G. Percivall contribution to OGC Mixed Reality to the Edge Concept Development Study

Geospatial in Edge-Fog-Cloud Computing An OGC White Paper • Edge and Fog computing extend the ubiquity of computing beyond the Cloud • Existing Geospatial standards are relevant to Edge/Fog – SWE including Sensor. Things for Io. T applications – Geospatial Fusion using WPS • Plan for extending geospatial interoperability across the Edge-Fog-Cloud continuum: – Address proliferation of sensors and platforms – Extend geospatial Feature detection and tracking – Edge/Fog commodity Machine learning for geospatial computing – Linked Geodata across the Edge-Fog-Cloud continuum – Autonomy for tasking in Edge-Fog using geo OGC ® Copyright © 2019 Open Geospatial Consortium

Edge-Fog-Cloud (OGC White Paper - 18 -004) OGC ® Copyright © 2018 Open Geospatial Consortium

Models, Simulation and Prediction • Convergence of – Gaming and Simulation – Built Environment Modeling – Predictive Earth System Models It is “time for geography to mature as a predictive science. . . seeking to predict locations where before there was contentment with simply describing and classifying them. ” Theoretical Geography, Bunge (1966: XVI) • OGC Tech Forecasting examines three categories Markets • Sustainable Development • Smart Cities • Disaster Management • Resource Management • Entertainment and Gaming OGC Applications • Earth System Modeling • Integrated environmental models • Gaming and simulation • Urban 3 D modeling ® Copyright © 2019 Open Geospatial Technology • Geospatial • Environmental modeling frameworks • Model builders from LIDAR and BIM • Gaming platforms • Visualization • Computing Platforms

Mod/Sim/Predict Tech Note - topics • Convergence of: – Modeling and Simulation – Predictive Earth System Models – Built Environment Modeling – Gaming • Value of Mod/Sim/Predict – Geospatial Intelligence – Sustainable Development – Smart Cities – Resource Management – Entertainment and Gaming OGC • Computing Tech and Platforms – Cloud computing – Big Data software – Programming and scripting languages – Visualization • OGC Standards – CDB – Open. MI – WPS and Workflow – i 3 S and 3 DTiles ® Copyright © 2019 Open Geospatial Consortium

Mod-Sim-Predict Tech Note Outline 1. Advancing Mod, Sim, Predict Convergence 2. Value of MSP - Markets 2. 1. Sustainable Development 2. 1. 1. Smart Cities 2. 2. Geospatial Intelligence 2. 3. Resource Management 2. 4. Entertainment and Gaming 3. Use cases – Applications 3. 1. Earth System Modeling 3. 2. Integrated environmental models 3. 3. Modeling and simulation 3. 4. Urban 3 D modeling 3. 5. Gaming OGC 4. Technology to advance MSP 4. 1. Cross-Cutting topics 4. 2. Standards 4. 3. M&S Projects 4. 4. Integrated Environmental Modeling projects 4. 5. Computing Technology and Platforms 5. Recommended actions Annex A: Relevant OGC Standards Annex B: Relevant OGC Engineering Reports ® Copyright © 2019 Open Geospatial Consortium

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OGC Technology Forecasting Breadth Assessment Focus Identify and Characterize Trends Prioritize and Evaluate Trends Take Action Innovation Program e. g. planning Testbeds Standards Program Trends Mindmap Technology Roadmaps e. g. Future Directions Communications & Outreach e. g. Location Powers Member Consultation e. g. NDA Tailored forecasts/discussion OGC ® https: //github. com/opengeospatial/OGC-Technology-Trends © 2019 Open Geospatial Consortium

OGC Programs Developer Support Engineering Support Requirements Community Support Decision Maker Support Innovation Program Engineering Reports & Compliance Tests Communications & Outreach Adopted Standards Program Requirements Gaps & Enhancements Compliance Program OGC ® 38

Technology Trends and Testbed-14 OGC ® Copyright © 2018 Open Geospatial Consortium

Testbed 16 Preliminary Ideas: Based on Tech Trends and previous Testbeds: • • • • Big Data Analytics Distributed Ledger, including Blockchain OGC Web API Interfaces OGC Geo. Package Workflows on Hybrid Cloud Environments Application Containers, such as Docker Geo. Semantics and Linked Data Tiled Feature Data, including Vector Tiles Security Geo. Health Smart Cities OGC Map. ML Specification Discrete Global Grid System (DGGS) Data Cubes Unmanned Systems OGC Schedule • Call for Sponsors – 1 May 2019 • IP lunch at June TC – contact Luis Bermudez • Freeze ideas – 20 Sept 2019 • Draft CFP – Nov/Dec 2019 ® Copyright © 2018 Open Geospatial Consortium

Initiative to Trend Innovation Program OGC Engineering Report Trend ® 41

Feedback Loops Tech. Trends OGC Future Directions Innovation Program Standards Program ® 42

OGC TC Future Directions • Future Directions sessions – Held quarterly during OGC Technical Committee meetings – Provide OGC members with exposure to technology trends that are likely to have an impact on OGC standards • Format: – TC-wide audience – Typically 4 invited speakers – 15 -minute presentations – Speakers panel for Q&A • Organized by Gobe Hobona, OGC KM OGC ® Copyright © 2018 Open Geospatial Consortium

Future Directions Session Process Hold Future Directions session at TC Invite speakers Select based on interests of members and non-members Discuss with OGC Architecture Board Options from OGC Tech Trends OGC ® Copyright © 2019 Open Geospatial Consortium

TC Future Directions, March 2018 – Autonomy at the Edge • Introduction – Gobe Hobona (OGC) • SAPIENT – Iain Burnell (Dstl) • Open. Fog Consortium – Frank Michaud (Open. Fog and CISCO) • Edge-Fog-Cloud Computing White paper – George Percivall (OGC), Don Sullivan (NASA), Scott Simmons (OGC) • Connected Autonomous Vehicles - Jeremy Morley (Ordnance Survey) • Discussion OGC ® Copyright © 2018 Open Geospatial Consortium

TC Future Directions, Feb 2019 – Predictive Modeling • Future Directions of Modeling, Simulation and Gaming used for Training and Rehearsal – David Graham (Eagle Cap Systems/CAE) • Observations on Developments in Information Modelling – Clemens Portele (Interactive Instruments Gmb. H) • A Brief History of Meteorology and Numerical Weather Prediction – Chris Little (UK Met Office) • Lessons for Future OWS-Supported Geospatial Predictive Modeling – Gobe Hobona (OGC) • Panel Discussion OGC ® Copyright © 2019 Open Geospatial Consortium

Location Powers • LP: Smart cities • Tokyo – December 2014 • LP: Big Data • Orlando – September 2016 • LP: Big Linked Geodata • Delft – March 2017 • LP: Underground • London – September 2017 • LP: Agriculture • New Zealand – December 2017 • LP: Built Environment • Singapore – September 2018 http: //www. locationpowers. net/events/

OGC Technology Forecasting Breadth Assessment Focus Identify and Characterize Trends Prioritize and Evaluate Trends Take Action Innovation Program e. g. planning Testbeds Standards Program Trends Mindmap Technology Roadmaps e. g. Future Directions Communications & Outreach e. g. Location Powers Member Consultation e. g. NDA Tailored forecasts/discussion OGC ® https: //github. com/opengeospatial/OGC-Technology-Trends © 2019 Open Geospatial Consortium

Tech Trends Consultation • Tailored discussion of Tech Trends – Discuss and refine Tech Trends in the OGC mindmap • Consultation on specific topics of interest – NDA style discussion – Part of OGC Strategy and Principal Members staff support • Levels of involvement – Programmed Report • Templated report developed by OGC staff by tailoring the Tech Forecasting to the interests of the requesting organization. – Trend Assessment Study • Similar to OGC a Concept Development Study, but instead of focused on a given concept it would be a broad review. OGC ® Copyright © 2018 Open Geospatial Consortium

OGC Technology Trends • Publicly Available – https: //github. com/opengeospatial/OGC-Technology-Trends – Please Comment • Tailored consultation – NDA Tailored forecasts/discussion for your organization • Call for Sponsors – To support expansion of Tech Forecasting with Big. Knowledge AI – Benefits include consultation and recognition Contact George Percivall, gpercivall@opengeospatial. org OGC ® Copyright © 2019 Open Geospatial Consortium