Offroad Transportation Electrification Marshall Miller and Aspen Environmental

Off-road Transportation Electrification Marshall Miller and Aspen Environmental Group IEPR Workshop on the Revised Transportation Energy Demand Forecasts (November 24, 2015)

Study Purpose • Estimate total electricity demand for offroad vehicles and applications from 2015 – 2025 • Produce Low, Medium, and High scenarios for electricity usage for each category for years 2015 -2025 IEPR Workshop on the Revised Transportation Energy Demand Forecasts (November 24, 2015)

Off-Road Categories • • Truck Stop Electrification (TSE) Trailer Refrigeration Units (TRUs) Industrial Forklifts Port Cargo Handling Equipment (CHE) Airport Ground Support Equipment (GSE) Utility Work Trucks Shore Power IEPR Workshop on the Revised Transportation Energy Demand Forecasts (November 24, 2015)

Methodology Inputs • Present fleet stock (# vehicles/applications) – Separate category for each vehicle type (e. g. small/large bucket trucks, forklift classes) • Estimates of stock growth through 2025 • Estimates of vehicle/application activity (VMT or hours) and fuel economy (mi/k. Wh, k. Wh/hour) • Estimates of % of electrified vehicles/applications in fleet – Generally assume linear increase from 2015 to 2025 – Data from current reports, recent activity, and regulations – Discussions with stakeholders IEPR Workshop on the Revised Transportation Energy Demand Forecasts (November 24, 2015)

Scenarios: Low, Medium, High (Range of Estimates) • Mostly determined by % adoption of electrification (dominates range) • Use data from U. S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; Moody's Analytics (CA counties) for projected economic growth from 2015 – 2025 to project Low, Medium, and High scenarios stock growth • Low – Close to lower bound, extrapolate from 2015 with present regulation • Medium – Best estimate and roughly in middle of Low and High • High – Aggressive assumptions IEPR Workshop on the Revised Transportation Energy Demand Forecasts (November 24, 2015)

Truck Stop Electrification • At truck stops, trucks plug in rather than run engine for hotel loads (A/C, radio, heating, etc. ) • Presently 224 electrified spaces (DOE Alt Fuels Database 1) • 9282 total spaces (SCE inventory) • Average load/space = 1. 39 k. W from CA Transportation Electrification Assessment (Cal. TEA 2) 1 http: //www. afdc. energy. gov/tse_locator 2 California Transportation Electrification Assessment Phase 1: Final Report, ICF International, Updated September 2014 IEPR Workshop on the Revised Transportation Energy Demand Forecasts (November 24, 2015)

Truck Stop Electrification Scenarios • Number of electrified spaces – Low: no increase – Medium: 20% spaces by 2025 (~1850) – High: 40% spaces by 2025 (~3700) • Capacity factor – Low: increase from 0. 28 to 0. 5 by 2025 – Medium: 0. 6 by 2025 – High: 0. 6 by 2025 IEPR Workshop on the Revised Transportation Energy Demand Forecasts (November 24, 2015)

Trailer Refrigeration Units (TRUs) • TRUs can be designed for plug-in electric standby at truck stops • CARB TRU ISOR emissions database • Assume trucks with e. TRUs can plug-in 30% of operating time • 4 classes < 11 hp, 11 -25 hp, > 25 hp, OOS (> 25 hp) • Power usage (from Cal. TEA and ARB): < 11 hp: 11 -25 hp: > 25 hp: 2. 3 k. W 6 k. W 10 k. W IEPR Workshop on the Revised Transportation Energy Demand Forecasts (November 24, 2015)

TRU Scenarios TRU type (hp) < 11 Scenario 11 - 25 > 25 OOS % e. TRUs by 2025 Low 11 11 11 0 Medium 40 50 25 0 High 50 60 50 20 IEPR Workshop on the Revised Transportation Energy Demand Forecasts (November 24, 2015)

Forklifts • Forklifts can be electric (class 1 -3) or ICE (class 4 and 5) • ITA Market Intelligence report sales data 3 – Sales by class yield current stock – Past sales yield present stock and % of electric vs ICE forklifts • Electricity usage per year (Cal. TEA) – Class 1, 2 ( < 120 hp): 18. 3 k. Wh – Class 1, 2 ( > 120 hp): 52. 8 k. Wh – Class 3: 5. 3 k. Wh 3 http: //www. indtrk. org/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/US-Factory-Shipments -Through-2012. pdf IEPR Workshop on the Revised Transportation Energy Demand Forecasts (November 24, 2015)

Industrial Forklifts Scenarios • Low – Assume present ratio of elec/ICE (1. 22) holds for future and simply use projected sales • Medium – Assume ratio of elec/ICE increases such that 15% of projected class 4, 5 forklifts are elec by 2025 • High – Assume ratio of elec/ICE increases such that 25% of projected class 4, 5 forklifts are elec by 2025 IEPR Workshop on the Revised Transportation Energy Demand Forecasts (November 24, 2015)

Port Cargo Handling Equipment (CHE) • Yard tractors, forklifts, RTG Cranes • ARB CHE emissions database for stock and activity (hours) • Electrical energy usage (Tiax 2012 report 4) – Tractors: 24 k. W – Forklifts: 5. 8 k. W – Cranes: 52 k. W “Roadmap to Electrify Goods Movement Subsystems for the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, ” Consultant Report by TIAX LLC for the Ports of LA and LB, February, 2012. 4 IEPR Workshop on the Revised Transportation Energy Demand Forecasts (November 24, 2015)

Port CHE Scenarios • Very little electrified equipment currently % Electrified by 2025 Scenario Tractors Forklifts RTG Cranes Low 10 10 5 Medium 20 20 10 High 40 40 20 IEPR Workshop on the Revised Transportation Energy Demand Forecasts (November 24, 2015)

Airport Ground Support Equipment (GSE) • Baggage tug, Belt Loader, Cargo Tractor, Forklift, A/C Tug, Passenger stand, etc. • US Stock (Airport Cooperative Research Program GSE inventory estimate 6) • CA stock (FAA enplanement data – roughly 11% of US 7) • k. Wh/yr for vehicles (LAX Extremely Low Emission Technology GSE Feasibility Study Report 8) 6 ACRP Report 78: Airport Ground Support Equipment (GSE): Emission Reduction Strategies, Inventory, and Tutorial (2012) 7 http: //www. faa. gov/airports/planning_capacity/passenger_allcargo_stats/passenger/ 8 “Extremely Low Emission Technology ground Support Equipment Feasibility Study Report – Updated”, CDM Smith. Prepared for the Los Angeles World Airports, February 2015 IEPR Workshop on the Revised Transportation Energy Demand Forecasts (November 24, 2015)

Airport GSE Scenarios • Ontario, San Jose airports significant electrification, ~37% of all GSE electrified in 2013 at LAX Scenario 2015 2025 Low 20% 25% Medium 20% 35% High 20% 45% IEPR Workshop on the Revised Transportation Energy Demand Forecasts (November 24, 2015)

Utility Work Truck Scenarios • Utility bucket trucks maintain and service worksites (PG&E, SCE, SMUD, SEMPRA) • In 2014 utilities made pledges buy significant number of plug-in vehicles for their fleets (PG&E led coalition) • PG&E plans to electrify 100% of work trucks by 2025 • Scenario electrification in 2025: – Low: 36/44% (37’/ 55’) of trucks electrified – Medium: 52/64% (37’/ 55’) of trucks electrified – High: 62/69% (37’/ 55’) of trucks electrified IEPR Workshop on the Revised Transportation Energy Demand Forecasts (November 24, 2015)

Utility Work Trucks Data • Small (37’) and Large (55’) bucket trucks with battery pack to supply power at worksite (Edison Electric Institute, 2014) Truck Size Electricity used (k. Wh/day) Operating days / year 37’ 55’ 5 8 260 IEPR Workshop on the Revised Transportation Energy Demand Forecasts (November 24, 2015)

Shore Power • Container, Cruise, Reefer, and Tanker ships • Ship visits – Tanker, container ships (US Department of Transportation Maritime Administration) – Cruise, reefer (CEC data) • At-Berth Regulation – Shore power 50% (2014), 70% (2017), 80% (2020), higher for ports that receive Prop 1 b funding • Scenarios by 2025 – Low: 80%, Medium: 85%, High: 90% IEPR Workshop on the Revised Transportation Energy Demand Forecasts (November 24, 2015)

Berth Times, Electrical Load, Energy Usage Ship type Berth time (hours) Electrical Load (MW) Total Energy per visit (MWh) Container 47 1. 2 56. 4 Reefer 60 0. 6 36 Passenger 15 5. 4 81 Tanker 43 0. 7 30. 1 Data from the Port of Long Beach Emissions Inventory IEPR Workshop on the Revised Transportation Energy Demand Forecasts (November 24, 2015)

Total Off-Road Electricity Demand Forecast OFF-ROAD ELECTRIC VEHICLE FUEL USE Mid High Low 3 500 3 000 GWh 2 500 2 000 1 500 1 000 500 0 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 IEPR Workshop on the Revised Transportation Energy Demand Forecasts (November 24, 2015) 2022 2023 2024 2025

Total Avoided Petroleum Usage from Year 2015 REDUCTION IN CONVENTIONAL FUEL USE ATTRIBUTED TO OFF-ROAD VEHICLE ELECTRIFICATION Mid High Low 300 Million Gallons (DGE) 250 200 150 100 50 0 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 IEPR Workshop on the Revised Transportation Energy Demand Forecasts (November 24, 2015) 2022 2023 2024 2025

Thank You IEPR Workshop on the Revised Transportation Energy Demand Forecasts (November 24, 2015)

Methodology Calculations • Vehicles • Electricity usage = # vehe * VMT / (mi/k. Wh) • Applications (Truck stops, shore power, etc. ) – Electricity usage = # ship berths/truck stops * hours usage (elec) * (k. Wh/hr) • Some cases data includes total energy usage (e. g. airport GSE) • Inputs vary with year – Stock – % electrified – Fuel economy/usage, activity held constant IEPR Workshop on the Revised Transportation Energy Demand Forecasts (November 24, 2015)

Truck Stop Electricity Demand Forecast TRUCK STOP TOTAL ELECTRIC VEHICLE FUEL USE Mid High Low 30 25 g. Wh 20 15 10 5 0 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 IEPR Workshop on the Revised Transportation Energy Demand Forecasts (November 24, 2015) 2022 2023 2024 2025

TRU Electricity Demand Forecast TRU TOTAL ELECTRIC VEHICLE FUEL USE Mid High Low 200 180 160 140 g. Wh 120 100 80 60 40 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 IEPR Workshop on the Revised Transportation Energy Demand Forecasts (November 24, 2015) 2022 2023 2024 2025

Industrial Forklift Electricity Demand Forecast INDUSTRIAL FORKLIFT TOTAL ELECTRIC VEHICLE FUEL USE Mid High Low 2 500 2 000 g. Wh 1 500 1 000 500 0 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 IEPR Workshop on the Revised Transportation Energy Demand Forecasts (November 24, 2015) 2022 2023 2024 2025

Port CHE Electricity Demand Forecast PORT CHE TOTAL ELECTRIC VEHICLE FUEL USE 180 160 140 Mid High Low g. Wh 120 100 80 60 40 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 IEPR Workshop on the Revised Transportation Energy Demand Forecasts (November 24, 2015) 2022 2023 2024 2025

Airport GSE Electricity Demand Forecast AIRPORT TOTAL ELECTRIC VEHICLE FUEL USE Mid High Low 45 40 35 GWh 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 IEPR Workshop on the Revised Transportation Energy Demand Forecasts (November 24, 2015) 2022 2023 2024 2025

Utility Work Truck Electricity Demand Forecast PLUG-IN HYRBID WORK TRUCK TOTAL ELECTRIC VEHICLE FUEL USE Mid High Low 3, 5 3, 0 g. Wh 2, 5 2, 0 1, 5 1, 0 0, 5 0, 0 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 IEPR Workshop on the Revised Transportation Energy Demand Forecasts (November 24, 2015) 2022 2023 2024 2025

Shore Power Electricity Demand Forecast SHORE POWER TOTAL ELECTRIC VEHICLE FUEL USE Mid High Low 600 500 GWh 400 300 200 100 0 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 IEPR Workshop on the Revised Transportation Energy Demand Forecasts (November 24, 2015) 2022 2023 2024 2025