ObamaTrump Voters Rebelling Against Neoliberalism or Embracing Authoritarianism

Obama-Trump Voters Rebelling Against Neoliberalism? or Embracing Authoritarianism, Racism, and Misogyny? Andrew Kliman Pace University, Marxist-Humanist Initiative

Voters who “flipped” from Obama to Trump “[a]re not racist. … They twice voted for a man whose middle name is Hussein. ” Michael Moore “My first boyfriend was black as well, but that doesn’t prove I’m color-blind, just that I like big butts. ” David Sedaris

In marked contrast to Mc. Cain and Romney (Republican candidates in 2008 and 2012), Trump made racial animus and white supremacy central to his campaign. It’s quite possible that a large share of Obama-Trump voters were willing to vote for Obama when race was not a salient election issue, but lined up behind white supremacy when the prospect of its triumphant restoration became a serious possibility.

Also, it was only after Obama was elected that many racist whites w/out college ed. came to recognize that the Republicans are the white people’s party. Before then, “[b]ecause they tended to follow politics less closely, they had not fully learned or internalized the long-standing divisions between the … Parties on civil rights and other issues related to race. ” – Sides, Tesler, Vavreck, Identity Crisis, p. 27. Party Identification of Whites (non-Hisp. ) w/o College Ed. Source: Pew

Basket of Deplorability tin A k c a l b Antiwoman Antiimmigrant Anti. ACA e r i s e D n a i r a t i r o h p aut i h s r e d a e l

Basket of Deplorability Components: Mean Values Blacks, negative attitude to Women, negative attitude to Immigra(nts/tion), negative attitude to ACA, negative attitude to Desire authoritarian leadership Basket of Deplorability, total Obama. Clinton Voters 0. 33 0. 30 0. 32 0. 34 0. 32 Obama. Trump Voters 0. 59 0. 47 0. 58 0. 73 0. 59

Basket of Deplorability Correlations among Components negative attitudes to blacks negative attitudes to women immigration women 46% immigration 60% 49% ACA 47% 29% 49% 54% 57% 65% desire authoritarian leadership ACA 42%

Desire for Authoritarian Leadership Obama. Trump voters Other Trump voters Non. Trump voters The country needs a strong, determined leader who will crush evil and take us back to our true path 80. 3% 76. 9% 31. 6% The country would be great if we honor ways of forefathers, do what authorities tell us, and get rid of “rotten apples” ruining everything 63. 4% 67. 9% 29. 8% Good for US to have strong leader even if the leader bends the rules to get things done 55. 4% 40. 4% 32. 1% Favor government torture of suspected terrorists 35. 6% 40. 1% 13. 0% Protestors “roughed up” for disrupting political events deserve it 62. 0% 63. 4% 29. 6%

“Is there anything in particular about Donald Trump that might make you want to vote for him? ” -- Strong indications of authoritarian attitudes in some Obama-Trump voters’ volunteered responses:

Trump vs. Clinton Feeling, Obama Voters who Flipped to Trump / Didn't Flip Trump vs. Clinton Feeling, Avg. in Ventile 0, 75 0, 60 0, 45 0, 30 0, 15 0, 00 0, 15 0, 30 0, 45 Basket of Deplorability, Ventile Avgs. 0, 60 0, 75

didn't prefer Trump 0, 743 preferred Trump 0, 607 Basket of Deplorability Score (ventile average) 0, 561 0, 523 0, 488 0, 460 0, 432 0, 404 0, 380 0, 358 0, 334 0, 307 0, 282 0, 257 0, 234 0, 214 0, 189 0, 163 0, 135 0, 075 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Basket of Deplorability, Composition of Ventiles, Obama Voters who Flipped to Trump / Didn’t Flip

Basket of Deplorability Scores, Relative Frequency, Obama Voters who Flipped to Trump / Didn’t Flip 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% didn't prefer Trump 0, 743 preferred Trump 0, 607 Basket of Deplorability Score (ventile average) 0, 561 0, 523 0, 488 0, 460 0, 432 0, 404 0, 380 0, 358 0, 334 0, 307 0, 282 0, 257 0, 234 0, 214 0, 189 0, 163 0, 135 0, 075 0%

“wrong” sign

Obama-Trump voters not more likely to be personally experiencing economic hardship reasons for voting for Trump bear little resemblance to the antineoliberal “left” narrative support for Trump has nothing to do with experience of economic hardship or lack of education attitudes about race, gender, immigration, and authoritarianism were far closer to other Trump voters than to non-Trump voters, and sometimes even more extreme. flip to Trump was driven by their Trumpian—deplorable— attitudes, as the regression results show

The anti-neoliberal “left” has been barking up the wrong tree. Few Obama-Trump voters want to take their country back to the pre-neoliberal era. They want to take their country back. We need to appreciate the broad support in the US for Trumpist reaction, to be better equipped to fight it. Not the time for self-serving, wishful thinking that the Trumpite base is a “constituency” ready-made for one’s version of “left” politics and “leadership. ” A real danger that the opposite will happen: that the anti-neoliberal “left” will be pulled further and further toward the camp of reaction as it seeks to accommodate the Trumpite base in order to win it over.