NVR Inc IR Plan Presented by Katie Hutchinson
NVR Inc. IR Plan Presented by Katie Hutchinson December 2011
Situation Analysis � Housing Market: outlook uncertain, demand soft � Trending down since 2007 �Key Contributors: �High unemployment rates �Strict mortgage conditions �Low consumer confidence �High cancellation rates �Market surplus (high foreclosure rates) �Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform & Consumer Protection Act, July 2010
NVR Inc. Performance & Reputation Revenue Growth EPS Growth 2009 – 2010 11% 5. 6% Analysts Coverage • Rating: Predominately Outperform • Stock Price: $632 • Valuation: $500 to $870 Q 3 2010 - 2011 5. 3% 9. 1% “We see NVR’s shares as a way of capturing the upside to an eventual recovery in the housing market with a lower-risk profile than “NVR…best-managed homebuilders, with a peers. ” - xxxx unique strategy of avoiding land risk by optioning its Land. ” –Credit Suisse “NVR is the bestpositioned public homebuilder, in our view. ” – Wells Fargo
NVR Inc. Performance
NVR Inc. Analysts COMPANY Credit Suisse Goldman Sachs Guggenheim JMP Securities JP Morgan Stifel Nicolaus Susquehanna Ticonderoga Securities Wells Fargo Zelman & Associates ANALYST Dan Oppenheim Joshua Pollard James Mc. Canless James Wilson Michael Rehaut Michael Widner Jack Micenko Stephen East Adam Rudiger Ivy Zelman
NVR Inc. & Peers Performance NYSE: NVR Inc. DHI DR Horton PHM Pulte Homes TOL Toll Brothers Industry Market Cap 3. 20 B 3. 69 B 2. 18 B 3. 02 B 577. 55 M Operating Margin 9. 09% 2. 82% (0. 57%) (1. 26%) 5. 84% 155. 73 M 27. 20 M (389. 64 M) 75. 23 N/A EPS 26. 83 0. 01 -1. 03 0. 45 0. 08 P/E 23. 99 144. 38 N/A 38. 58 14. 37 PEG (5 YR exp. ) 2. 35 4. 19 (2. 40) 11. 01 0. 20 Price/Book Value 2. 36 1. 41 1. 08 1. 12 1. 80 Total debt to equity 0. 00 0. 73 1. 73 0. 63 -- Net Income Avg. Vol. (3 m): 54, 238 7, 774, 140 13, 853, 600 3, 842, 990 4, 000
NVR & Peers Stock Performance; 12 months NVR & S&P 500
NVR & Peer Performance Income & Price to Book Value
I re nde G x ro w th He GA dg RP e Co Fun re d De Val ep ue Eq V ui alu ty H e ed g In Gr e co ow m Br e V th ok a er lue -D Ag eal gr er es Sp. Gr ec. ia lty Yi el d Co Investor Style Percent of Outstanding Shares & Number of Investors 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 % O/S Investors
Ownership & Turnover Rate Investor Type Investors % Outstanding Shares Investment managers 36 86. 67 Brokerage Firms 20 . 46 Strategic Entities 15 5. 71 Individuals 15 5. 71 396 93. 84 Institutional Investor Turnover Rate (Top 50) 6% Low 28% 66% Medium High
Top 10 Investors Shares % Total Value Style 1 Alliance. Bernstein L. P. 444, 344 8. 93 104, 449. 77 Core Growth 2 Black. Rock Institutional Trust Company, N. A. 343, 774 6. 91 697, 687. 75 Index 3 Wellington Management Company, LLP 250, 774 5. 04 251, 034. 25 Core Value 4 Vanguard Group, Inc. 224, 415 4. 51 692, 508. 85 Index 5 Pennant Capital Management LLC 216, 306 4. 35 4, 070. 65 Hedge Fund 6 Goldman Sachs Asset Management (US) 204, 453 4. 11 82, 658. 85 Core Growth 7 JP Morgan Asset Management 189, 892 3. 82 117, 651. 67 GARP 8 Cooke & Bieler, L. P. 167, 205 3. 36 3, 989. 82 Core Value 9 State Street Global Advisors (US) 164, 435 3. 3 527, 770. 03 Index 163, 816 3. 29 1, 359. 27 Hedge Fund 10 Impala Asset Management, LLC
11 -25 Investors Shares % Total Value Style 11 GEM Realty Capital, Inc. 140, 365 2. 82 1, 582. 32 Hedge Fund 12 Greenlight Capital, Inc. 128, 100 2. 57 5, 287. 72 Deep Value 13 Saville (Paul C) 123, 582 2. 48 91. 37 14 TIAA-CREF 88, 695 1. 78 158, 535. 42 GARP 15 Fidelity Management & Research Company 73, 162 1. 47 550, 294. 89 GARP 16 Columbia Wanger Asset Management, LLC 69, 600 1. 40 26, 788. 62 GARP 17 MFS Investment Management 65, 994 1. 33 128, 787. 03 Core Growth 18 Schneider Capital Management Corporation 65, 778 1. 32 1, 247. 96 Deep Value 19 Marshfield Associates, Inc. 60, 311 1. 21 903. 69 GARP 20 Schar (Dwight C) 60, 000 1. 21 45. 36 21 Royce & Associates, LLC 56, 971 1. 14 31, 068. 59 Deep Value 22 Neuberger Berman, LLC 54, 899 1. 10 65, 264. 13 GARP 23 Blue Ridge Capital 49, 250 0. 99 5, 201. 75 Equity Hedge 24 Hoplite Capital Management, L. L. C. 47, 633 0. 96 1, 760. 73 Hedge Fund 25 Capital Guardian Trust Company 46, 300 0. 93 21, 066. 05 GARP
Weaknesses Strengths Only profitable builder during downturn • Market concentration • Supply of lots for future growth • Financial flexibility • Consistent positive earnings • Industry-leading cost structure • Shareholder-friendly stock buyback program • Strong operating margins vs. peers • Energy Star Partner of the Year 2011 • • • SWOT Opportunities • • • Cyclical Industry Housing market & mortgage crisis Industry fallout & effects of current economy Thinly traded Limited interaction with investors Rely on 3 rd party for land contracts D-rating: Stewardship, Morning Star Raw land on balance sheet Market turns: poised to increase revenues & cash flow at rapid rate Expand geographical footprint Continue to increase market share in current locations Purchase distressed assets at bargain price Stock price appreciation (Stock gains) Threats • • • Mid-Atlantic markets concentration- Slower housing recovery | deeper economic recession Heightened Competition for land deals “Risk Investors” increase – NVR underperform peers Limited mortgage capital availability| Steep spike in interest rates Unexpected changes in customer preferences
Goals and Objectives �Increase percent of outstanding shares held by existing GARP investors from 13% to 15%. �Increase sell-side analysts who cover NVR Inc. quarterly from 11 to 13. �Build awareness and understanding about proven business model to targeted investors, sell-side analysts & employees. �Strengthen relationship with stakeholders by providing a more comprehensive IR website.
Target Audience � Internal � Board of Directors | Senior Management | Employees � External � Sell-Side analysts � CURRENT: � Joel Locker, CFA | FBN Research [Reduced NVR from Outperform to Sector Perform] � Joshua Pollard | Goldman Sachs [Rated: NVR = Neutral but TOL & PHM = Buy] � NEW: Do NOT cover NVR Inc. but DO cover Toll, Pulte, Horton o o o Michael Kim | CRT Capital Group, Nishu Sood | Deutsche Bank, Kenneth Zener | Key. Banc Capital Markets Robert Wetenhall | RBC Capital Markets Buck Horne | Raymond James & Associates
Current NVR Inc. GARP Investors � Buy-Side analysts � Specific analyst noted in events calendar Investors 7 JP Morgan Asset Management Shares % Total Value Style 189, 892 3. 82 117, 651. 67 GARP 14 TIAA-CREF 88, 695 1. 78 158, 535. 42 GARP 15 Fidelity Management & Research Company 73, 162 1. 47 550, 294. 89 GARP 16 Columbia Wanger Asset Management, LLC 69, 600 1. 40 26, 788. 62 GARP 19 Marshfield Associates, Inc. 60, 311 1. 21 903. 69 GARP 22 Neuberger Berman, LLC 54, 899 1. 10 65, 264. 13 GARP 25 Capital Guardian Trust Company 46, 300 0. 93 21, 066. 05 GARP � Fidelity Management & Research Company - #1 Toll Brother Investor
Solid choice in a “risky” industry ü Housing market projected to stabilize & NVR Inc. in best position to capitalize on market improvement. ü History of high revenue & EPS growth when housing market increases. Best positioned builder now & when market turns ü Paid off public debt. ü Financial Flexibility – able to take advantage of opportunities when they arise. ü Increased market share & geographical footprint. Value Drivers History of profitable performance: even through current downturn ü Only national homebuilder profitable every year of downturn. ü Revenue, net income & EPS all increased versus 2009. ü Lead industry in return on equity, return on capital & inventory turnover.
Website Recommendations Search Box | RSS Recommendations • Fresh Look: • landing page • Tab Setup • Search Application • RSS Feed • Calendar of Events • Conference Calls • PPT & Presentation Doc. • Executive Bios • FAQ • Analyst Emails (only phone # listed) • Rework - Forward Looking Statement – repeat visitor frustration
Communication Vehicles � Press Release �Earning Reports, SEC filings � Annual Report � Meetings – CEO | CFO � Annual shareholder � Employees by Region (6) � Senior Management (2) � Board of Directors (2) � Investor Day �"Best Positioned for Industry Growth“ � CFO & CEO to speak � To Attend � Current: 11 sell-side analysts, Top 10 buy-side analysts (based on o/s) � Potential: 5 sell-side analysts, 20 investors (new or potential to increase NVR o/s) � Location: Reston, VA
Communication Vehicles � CEO (5) one-on-one meetings with prospective sell-side analysts � CEO (7) one-on-one meetings with prospective GARP buy-side analysts � CEO/CFO host (2) meeting for current sell-side analysts � 30 minute presentation � 1 hour (11) one-on-one meetings �Joel Locker, CFA | FBN Research �Joshua Pollard | Goldman Sachs � CEO/CFO host (2) meeting for current buy-side analysts � 30 minute presentation � 1 hour (10) one-on-one meetings
Communication Vehicles � Field Trip �On-sight tour of NVR Panelized Construction Facility � 1 hour tour �Lunch �Q & A with CEO �Attend: current & prospective buy-side & sell-side analysts � Industry Conference: 2012 Housing Leadership Summit � “Reduce Risk & Increase Inventory Turnover” � Break-out speaker CEO, Paul Seville � Road Shows with Sell-side analysts (5) � Investment Conferences (8)
Road Shows 2012 1 JP Morgan | Michael Rehaut GARP Investor -- want to increase its shares of NVR stock 2 Goldman Sachs Road Show | �Joshua Pollard NVR: Neutral, TOL & PHM: Buy 3 Morning Star Road Show | Eric Landry Regularly cover NVR Inc. - quality coverage 4 Credit Suisse Road Show | Daniel Oppenheim Regularly covers NVR Inc. – Neutral rating – fair reporting 5 Wells Fargo Road Show | Adam Rudiger* Regularly covers NVR Inc. , publishes comprehensive, positive reports on business model, rating is Neutral to Outperform, high valuation ($870)
Calendar of Events: January- March ROAD SHOWS NVR MTGS. & Investor Day 10 -Jan Senior Management ANALYST MEETINGS 11 -Jan Board of Directors REPORTS 13 -Jan Road Show (1): JP Morgan | Michael Rehaut CONFERENCES| FIELD TRIP 16 -Jan Current Sell-side analyst meeting (1 hr. one-on-ones) (Reston, VA) 17 -Jan Current Buy-side analyst meeting (15 hr. one-on-ones) (Reston, VA) Prospective buy-side GARP investor: JP Morgan Asset Management | analyst one-on 19 -Jan one 20 -Jan Prospective buy-side GARP investor: TIAA-CREF | analyst one-on-one 24 -Feb 10 -K Filing Date 28 -Feb Prospective sell-side: Michael Kim | CRT Capital Group 29 -Feb Prospective sell-side: �Nishu Sood | Deutsche Bank* Prospective buy-side GARP investor: Fidelity Management & Research Company | 1 -Mar analyst one-on-one 4 -7 Mar Raymond James' 33 rd Annual Institutional Investors Conference , Orlando, FL 21 -Mar Annual Report to Shareholder (ARS) Proxy Statement 28 -Mar Investor Day, Reston, VA
Calendar of Events: April - June 4 -Apr Employee Meeting North East 6 -Apr Field Trip 10 -Apr Road Show (2): Goldman Sachs Road Show | �Joshua Pollard 1 -May Quarterly Report (1) ROAD SHOWS NVR MTGS. & Investor Day ANALYST MEETINGS REPORTS CONFERENCES| FIELD TRIP 7 -May Buy-side GARP investor: Columbia Wanger Asset Management, LLC 9 -May Annual Shareholder Meeting 10 -11 May Employee Meeting Mid Atlantic Wells Fargo Securities Industrial and Construction Conference 15 -17 May (NY, NY) Adam Rudiger J. P. Morgan Homebuilding and Building Products Investor (2012 21 -23 May Housing Leadership Summit) Chicago, IL Michael Rehaut 5 -Jun Credit Suisse Homebuilding & Building Products Conference (NY, NY) Daniel Oppenheim 7 -8 Jun Morning Star 24 th Annual Investment Conference, Chicago, IL Eric Landry Deutsche Bank Global Industrials & Basic Materials Conference, 13 -15 Jun Chicago, IL Nishu Sood 18 -Jun Buy-side GARP investor: Marshfield Associates, Inc 19 -Jun Buy-side GARP investor: Neuberger Berman, LLC 20 -22 Jun Employee Meeting Mid East (2) South East (1)
Calendar of Events: July - September 12 -Jul Road Show (3): Morning Star Road Show | Eric Landry 19 -Jul �Prospective sell-side: Kenneth Zener | Key. Banc Capital 20 -Jul �Prospective sell-side: Robert Wetenhall | RBC Capital ROAD SHOWS 6 -Aug Quarterly Report (2) NVR MTGS. & Investor Day ANALYST MEETINGS REPORTS 4 -Sep Senior Management CONFERENCES| FIELD TRIP 5 -Sep Board of Directors 6 -7 Sep UBS Building and Building Products 10 th Annual CEO Conference, New York, NY 20 -Sep Current Sell-side analyst meeting ( 1 hour one-on-ones) (Reston, VA) 21 -Sep Current Buy-side analyst meeting (1 hour one-on-ones) (Reston, VA) 10 -Sep Road Show (4): Credit Suisse Road Show | Daniel Oppenheim
Calendar of Events: October - December 1 -Oct Buy-side GARP investor: Capital Guardian Trust Company 26 -Oct Quarterly Report (3) 29 -Oct Road Show (5): Wells Fargo Road Show | Adam Rudiger* 2 -Nov �Prospective sell-side: Buck Horne | Raymond James & Associates* 7 -Nov Road Show (6): 28 -29 Nov JP Morgan 11 th Annual Small/Mid Cap Conference, New York, NY Dec Work on annual report ROAD SHOWS NVR MTGS. & Investor Day ANALYST MEETINGS REPORTS CONFERENCES| FIELD TRIP
Measurement �GARP investors percent (increase) of outstanding shares �Total Sell-side analysts covering NVR Inc. (2012) �Reports published per year �Ratings: Neutral to Outperform �NVR Inc. Perception Survey results �Internal customer survey results �Website hits �Activity and time on website �Amount of emails and inquiries in comparison to 2011
Budget
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