Numerical Weather Prediction Science Serving Society William M

Numerical Weather Prediction: Science Serving Society William. M. Lapenta and Jordan Alpert Environmental Modeling Center NOAA/NWS/NCEP World Bank 18 June 2013 1

Presentation Outline Ø The National Centers for Environmental Prediction Ø Why NOAA Conducts Operational Numerical Weather Prediction Ø Near-term NCEP Model Development Plans Ø Growing use of NWP Information Ø Data Dissemination: NOAA Operational Model Archive and Distribution System (NOMADS) World Bank 18 June 2013 2

The National Centers for Environmental Prediction CPC NHC NCO OPC HPC EMC SPC AWC SWPC World Bank 18 June 2013 3

NCEP Supports the NOAA Seamless Suite of Climate, Weather, and Ocean Products Organization: Central component of NOAA National Weather Service Mission: NCEP delivers science-based environmental predictions to the nation and the global community. We collaborate with partners and customers to produce reliable, timely, and accurate analyses, guidance, forecasts, and warnings for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the national economy. Aviation Weather Center Space Weather Prediction Center Storm Prediction Center NCEP Central Operations Climate Prediction Center Environmental Modeling Center Weather Prediction Center Ocean Prediction Center National Hurricane Center Vision: The Nation’s trusted source, first alert, and preferred partner for environmental prediction services World Bank 18 June 2013 4

The NOAA Operational Modeling Enterprise Three Major Components of the Numerical Prediction Enterprise…. Everything you read, see or hear about weather, climate and ocean forecasts is based on numerical prediction 1. Global Observing System 2. High Performance Computers 3. Data Assimilation, Modeling and Post Processing NOAA Science Serving Society…. World Bank 18 June 2013 5

NOAA Operational Numerical Guidance Supports the Agency Mission – Numerical Weather Prediction at NOAA ØRequired for agency to meet service-based metrics – National Weather Service GPRA* Metrics (* Government Performance & Results Act) ØHurricane Track and Intensity Lead Time ØWinter Storm Warning and ØPrecipitation Threat ØFlood Warning Accuracy! ØMarine Wind Speed and Wave Height – Operational numerical guidance: ØFoundational tools used by government, public and private industry to improve public safety, quality of life and make business decisions that drive US economic growth World Bank 18 June 2013 6

Seamless Suite of NOAA Operational Numerical Guidance Systems Spanning Weather and Climate Forecast Uncertainty Years Outlook Seasons Months • North American Mesoscale • Waves • Global Ocean • Bays • Fire Wx • Regional Hurricane • Space Weather • Storm Surge • (HWRF & GFDL) • Rapid Refresh • Tsunami Hours Minutes • Whole Atmosphere • HRRR • NMME • Dispersion (smoke) En vir on me nt h He alt os yst em n Ec cre a tio ure Re ult ric Ag ir C on tro l we r vo Re ser Hy dro po g En erg y P l an nin erc e Co cy Mg en erg Em mm mt ns eat he r e W Fir ace Op era tio e tim Sp Ma ri ion Av iat ert y Benefits op Warnings & Alert Coordination • Global Forecast System • Global Dust • Short-Range Ensemble Forecast • Wave Ensemble Days Pr Watches • North American Ensemble Forecast System • Global Ensemble Forecast System 1 Week e & Forecasts • Climate Forecast System 2 Week Lif Threats Assessments Forecast Lead Time Guidance World Bank 18 June 2013 7

Numerical Guidance Suite Execution on the Operational NOAA Supercomputer Number of Nodes 24 -h Snapshot 20 August 2012 High Water Mark 2010 00 CFS GEFS 06 NAM 12 GFS 18 SREF 00 Time of Day (UTC) World Bank 18 June 2013 8

Computing Capability “Reliable, Timely and Accurate” • Current – IBM Power 6 – 74 trillion calculations/sec – 27. 8 million model fields/day – Primary: Gaithersburg, MD – Backup: Fairmont, WV – Guaranteed switchover in 15 minutes • Next Generation – – – IBM i. Data. Plex Intel/Linux Primary: Reston, VA Backup: Orlando, FL 178 trillion calc/sec Go-live date expected on 16 July 2013 2011 Posted within 15 min TOC retrieved within 15 min World Bank 18 June 2013

Looking Forward… NCEP Global Systems Into 2015 World Bank 18 June 2013 10

National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) Project • Facilitated by the NOAA Climate Test Bed • NMME as a Modeling Test-Bed • Seasonal to Interannual Time Scales • Predictability Research: e. g. , South East US Drought • Model Evaluation and Development • Initialization Strategies: e. g. , Land, Ocean • Fosters interaction between research and operations • Provides experimental guidance products to Climate Prediction Center • Participating Organizations: • • • University of Miami - RSMAS National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Center for Ocean--‐Land--‐Atmosphere Studies (COLA) International Research Ins 7 tute for Climate and Society (IRI) Canadian Meteorological Centre (Soon) • NASA – GMAO • NOAA/NCEP/EMC/CPC • NOAA/GFDL • Princeton University • University of Colorado (CIRES Data are available at: http: //iridl. ldeo. columbia. edu/SOURCES/. Models/. NMME/ World Bank 18 June 2013 11

NCEP Mesoscale Modeling for CONUS: Rapid Refresh NAM • Implemented 18 October 2011 • Scheduled implementation 20 March 2012 • • • NEMS based NMM Parent remains at 12 km Multiple Nests Run to ~48 hr • • • WRF-based ARW Use of GSI analysis Expanded 13 km Domain to include Alaska Experimental 3 km HRRR – – ~4 km CONUS nest ~6 km Alaska nest ~3 km HI & PR nests ~1. 5 -2 km DHS/Fire. Weather/IMET possible • WRF-Rapid Refresh domain – 2010 RUC-13 CONUS domain Original CONUS domain Experimental 3 km HRRR World Bank 18 June 2013 12

Convective Scale NWP: High Impact Weather 1. 3 KM NMM Moving Nest applied to 29 June 2012 Derecho Simulated maximum composite radar reflectivity Ø Initialized with RAPv 2 analysis Ø 12 km parent domain with 1. 3 km moving nest Ø Nest motion prescribed Ø Output every 10 minutes Ø Supports NOAA Wo. F and WRN initiatives Ø Ongoing development: Ø Nest movement based on phenomena of interest Ø 2 -way nesting for hurricane applications Ø Computationally efficient World Bank 18 June 2013 13

Role of NWP in the Forecast Process Ø Coordinated forecast guidance requires: § Following weather events with long lead times from Global models § Regional and mesoscale for localized severe weather Ø Prediction and warnings for High impact events Ø Challenging in the absence of adequate real time observational networks in developing countries Ø Deterministic ensemble prediction systems: Ø § Dynamical downscaling § Statistical adjustment generate the needed information Application of uncertainty information World Bank 18 June 2013

NCEP Scientific Developments Impacts on Life, Property and Commerce Ø NCEP serving as a global center in support of the Severe Weather Forecasting Development Project (SWFDP) since 2006 Ø African Desk represents NCEP in the SWFDP § Provides access to NCEP global and regional data and products § Offers professional development training to weather forecasters as part of the US contribution to the WMO VCP § Trained 33 meteorologists from 23 countries across Africa in weather forecasting and in NWP since 2006. § Implemented a website to provide access to NCEP NWP guidance • • Meets the needs and requirements of the forecasters in Africa Extends globally as part of an outreach to the international community Ø Model development benefits from global customer feedback World Bank 18 June 2013

Overview – What is NOMADS Ø Need for Climate and Weather model output data At WFO’s, and Regions, University and Institutional research, NOAA and other scientist’s. effort is wasted on data receipt and format issues with not enough infrastructure to collaborate. Ø ØNOMADS is a distributed data service format independent access to climate and weather models and data. Servers with services for Users in WFO’s and elsewhere to get data. ØApps to Slice, Dice and Area subset model output packed binary data sets ØSlice across the complex dimensions of model output file matrix. ØNOMADS serves data. Display is done by Ø the user (client)

Data Distribution: NOMADS NOAA Operational Model Archive and Distribution System Ø Users: constrained queries or use own programs to get select data Ø Commercial packages such as IDL, MATLAB and freeware analysis and display software such as Gr. ADS Ø NCEP server data sets appear as local files on the users workstation Ø Only the requested data that is needed gets transferred conserving band width Ø Unpacking, and organizing data across the separate packed binary files is done by aggregation on the server Ø Results in the best performance possible from server hardware and firmware World Bank 18 June 2013 17 17

Summary Thoughts on numerical weather prediction: Ø Ø Operational NWP systems increasing in resolution and complexity Applications continue to evolve Demand continues to increase as do the data volumes produced Requires effective sharing of data between global and regional centers Data Dissemination and NOMADS Ø A digital archive and real time data of NOAA’s operational weather models Ø Integrator of common web services infrastructure to support the discovery, access and transport of data and model ensemble data service dissemination Ø Unified Access Framework approach to data interoperability Ø Metadata descriptions and format independent file access, no registration and no fee Ø The transfer of appropriate data to where it is needed in useable form is key to making relevant forecasts World Bank 18 June 2013 18