Numerical Weather Prediction at Air Force Weather Agency

Numerical Weather Prediction at Air Force Weather Agency Mark T. Surmeier, Deputy Director Air and Space Science Air Force Weather Agency Offutt AFB, NE As of: 14 Jun 04 Integrity - Service - Excellence

Overview • AFWA Mission • Historical NWP Environment: MM 5 • Current NWP Environment • Next NWP Environment: WRF As of: 7 Jan 04 Integrity - Service - Excellence 2

AFWA Mission Deliver to our Nation's combat forces anytime, anyplace, the highest quality, mission-tailored information, products, and services relating to the terrestrial and space environment. . from the mud to the sun. As of: 7 Jan 04 Integrity - Service - Excellence 3

Historical NWP Environment • First Operational Use of NWP by USAF • History, 4 th Weather Group, Jan –Dec 1954 • Introduced the Numerical Predictions Project • Conceived at Air Force Cambridge Research Center (R&D) • Programmed for operational establishment (USAF Weather Central) on 1 July 1954 at Andrews AF Base as a joint WBAN project • Regional baroclinic model, 300 km grid, US domain, 36 hr • IBM 701 (2048 36 -bit words) IBM 701 http: //www. columbia. edu/acis/history/701. html As of: 14 Jun 04 Integrity - Service - Excellence

Historical NWP Environment • 1955: USAF Weather Central (NWP focus) Moved to Suitland, MD • 1957: USAF Weather Central Moved to Offutt AFB, NE to Combine with the Global Weather Central • 1958: First Automated “contrail” Forecasts • 1960: Global Weather Central Purchased its First Computer: an IBM 7090 • 1961: Began Computer Wind Factor Forecasts; Added IBM 1401 http: //www. air-and-space. com/20011114%20 Saline%20 Valley/1%2011%20 B-52 H%20 contrail% As of: 14 Jun 04 http: //www. columbia. edu/acis/history/1401. html Integrity - Service - Excellence

Historical NWP Environment • 1962: Computerized Stratospheric Analyses and Numerical Cloud Forecasts; Added IT&T Automatic Data Exchange 6400 • 1963: First Automated Facsimile Charts; First Receipt of METSAT Data; Upgraded the IBM 7090 to an IBM 7094 • 1964: Implemented Quasi-geostrophic Prediction Model (SIXLVL) • As of: 14 Jun 04 381 km grid; NH; 72 hr forecast length Integrity - Service - Excellence

Historical NWP Environment • 1965: Do. D Established the Automated Weather Network—Worldwide High-Speed Data Collection; Added Terminal to Process METSAT Data from DOC Satellites • 1966: Transmitted NWP-Based Products for Asian and European Theaters; Added a second IBM 7094 Computer • 1967: Installed Four UNIVAC 1108 Computers • 1970: Computer Flight Plans; First Operational PBL Model (185 km grid; 7 layers; regional; 24 hr forecast — 7 LVL) http: //en. wikipedia. org/wiki/F-4_Phantom As of: 14 Jun 04 Integrity - Service - Excellence

Historical NWP Environment • 1972: AWS’s Medium Range Forecast Mission Moved from Suitland, MD to AFGWC; Added Fifth Computer— UNIVAC 1110 • 1974: AWS Primitive Equation (PE) Model (381 km res. , 7 layers, NH, 72 hr forecast) • 1976: Upgraded a UNIVAC 1108 to 1110; Added a 1110 • 1979: Replaced 3 UNIVAC 1108 s w 2 UNIVAC 1100/81 s • 1982: Replaced 2 UNIVAC 1100/81 s with 2 Sperry 1100/82 s As of: 14 Jun 04 Integrity - Service - Excellence

Historical NWP Environment • 1986: Advanced Weather Analysis and Prediction System (AWAPS)--Global Spectral Model (GSM) 493 km, 14 lyrs, global; 96 hr fcst; High-Resolution Analysis System (HIRAS); Cray X-MP Supercomputer • 1987: Sperry 1100/82 s Upgraded to UNISYS 1100/91 s • 1990: Replaced 1100/xxs by One UNISYS 2200/633—Called Weather Information Processing System (WIPS) Cray XMP • 1992: Relocatable Window Model (RWM) (46. 3 km, 16 lyrs, 36 hr)— Last component of AWAPS (started in ’ 86); Initialized w HIRAS http: //www. nsa. gov/museum/museu 00018. cfm As of: 14 Jun 04 Integrity - Service - Excellence

Historical NWP Environment • 1992: Quote from one of our Tech Notes: “This [the computational cost] makes increasing the grid resolution an ineffective way to increase forecaster skill. ” • 1995: AFWA Stopped Using the GSM Global Model as Primary (part of the NAVAF Agreement--Used Navy NOGAPS Data; GSM Used as Back-up into 1997) • 1996: RWM Run Operationally; First Visualizations; AWAPS-U (IBM SP 1 Replaced Cray XMP) • 1998: Discontinued RWM As of: 14 Jun 04 Integrity - Service - Excellence

Historical NWP Environment: MM 5 • 1995: Advanced Concept Technology Demo Using Penn State Univ. /NCAR Mesoscale Model 5 (MM 5) & 14 -Node IBM SP 2 System • • Bosnia window run once per day (NOGAPS initialization) 21 Node IBM 25 s Levels SP 2(Blizzard) 27 km Grid Resolution 24 Hour Forecast • 1996: Expanded IBM SP-2 Production System to 21 Nodes Accelerated System Growth As of: 14 Jun 04 Integrity - Service - Excellence

Historical NWP Environment: MM 5 • 1997: • Added Southwest Asia & CONUS Windows Implemented worldwide relocatability (FSL/ANL assist) Selected Contractor for Global Theater Weather Analysis and Prediction System (GTWAPS)--TRW; IBM SP-2 • 1998: New IBM SP-2 Production system: 66 T 4 nodes and 4 W 3 nodes As of: 14 Jun 04 Integrity - Service - Excellence

Historical NWP Environment: MM 5 • 1999: • • As of: 14 Jun 04 Ran 18 theaters per day; 80 GB/day of model output data; over 90, 000 GIF images Images are made available to meteorologists in the field through AFWIN (Air Force Weather Information Network) over the Internet Integrity - Service - Excellence

Historical NWP Environment: MM 5 • 1999: • • - As of: 14 Jun 04 Parallelized MM 5 and supporting applications-significant decreases in application run times achieved Added IBM Silver node production system (110 nodes, 4 CPUs per node, 332 MHz) Provided 2. 5 Gigaflops per node GTWAPS evolved from a single system two-frame SP into a six -system eighteen-frame SP 41 s levels; 72 Hour Forecast; 36, 12, and 4 km Grid Spacing Integrity - Service - Excellence

Historical NWP Environment: MM 5 From 12 gigaflops in October 1997 As of: 14 Jun 04 Integrity - Service - Excellence

Historical NWP Environment: MM 5 36 - 12 - 4 Km Nesting • 1999: Higher resolution picks up storms over Balkans 12 km 36 km As of: 14 Jun 04 4 Km Integrity - Service - Excellence

Historical NWP Environment: MM 5 • 2000: • As of: 14 Jun 04 Optimized windows Less overlap-- faster processing; more coverage Focused on current requirements (theaters, coverage, etc. ) Projected processing timeline changes based on the cumulative effects of the following: OWS: Incremental receipt of MMLITE Gri. B files OWS: Incremental post-processing (all parameters) OWS: Incremental visualizations AFWA: Domain, Forecast Length, and Output Frequency changes based on new window plan Overall impact: products available at the OWSs roughly 1½ hours earlier 300, 000 products per day Integrity - Service - Excellence

Historical NWP Environment: MM 5 • 2000: • - As of: 14 Jun 04 Visualization Boom MIKE: Interactive Gr. ADS application (generated customizable 2 -D B&W charts Added more post-processed data types Combined all visualization packages into single GUI Created 2 -panel and 4 -panel chart options IMa. ST: Increase Skew-T vertical resolution Integrity - Service - Excellence

Historical NWP Environment: MM 5 • 2001 • • • - As of: 14 Jun 04 Implemented Mesoscale Data Assimilation System (MDAS) and Multi-Variate Optimal Interpolation (MVOI) Tropical Storm Bogusing capability for Tropical Theaters (improved track and intensity forecasts for TCs worldwide) AFWA MM 5 Window Configurations: Eighteen 45 -km theaters (14 regular + 4 Tropical) (Also, T 1 T 6 4 x daily) Eleven 15 -km nests Two 5 -km nests Total of 37 windows every 12 hours 80% earth coverage; 98% land coverage Integrity - Service - Excellence

Historical NWP Environment: MM 5 • 2001 • MM 5 Model Runs Produced on Two Production Platforms, Prod 2 and Prod 3 - 94 IBM Silver nodes and 41 WH II nodes, respectively 625 Gflops As of: 14 Jun 04 Integrity - Service - Excellence

Historical NWP Environment: MM 5 • 2001 • • - As of: 14 Jun 04 Added Capability to Initialize with NCEP’s AVN/MRF Parameterizations in use for MM 5 Cumulus: Grell for 45 and 15 km; explicit for 5 km Planetary boundary layer (PBL): MRF Explicit moisture: Mixed phase (a. k. a. Reisner I) Radiation: Cloud radiation Ground temperature: Five layer soil Post-processing Raw MM 5 output used to derive over 100 forecast parameters Algorithms developed by AFWA and external labs AFWIN products (over 400, 000 per day; 170, 000 Gr. ADS and 231, 660 Vis 5 D) Trim. Gri. B capability (tailored gridded data sets) Integrity - Service - Excellence

Historical NWP Environment: MM 5 • 2001 • • • - - As of: 14 Jun 04 Objective and Subjective Verification of MM 5 Integration of WRF Early Release into AFWA Processing Environment MM 5 Integrated with Other AFWA Models Land Surface Model (near-global land-surface analysis model) Real-Time Cloud Analysis (RTNEPH/CDFS-II; global cloud analysis models; forecaster enhanced) Advect Cloud (ADVCLD), High-Res Cloud Prog (HRCP), & CMNS fine resolution cloud forecasts (forecaster enhanced global cloud trajectory forecast models) Snow Analysis (global snow & ice areas; forecaster enhanced) Surface Temperature (global temperature analysis model) Integrity - Service - Excellence

Historical NWP Environment: MM 5 • 2002 • • • As of: 14 Jun 04 Improved Objective and Subjective Verification of MM 5 Redesigned JAAWIN Operational Implementation of MM 5 -V 3 -R 5. 2 (improved boundary layer physics) Integrity - Service - Excellence

Historical NWP Environment: MM 5 • 2002 • • • Added 2 and 10 meter output of T, RH, u- and v- winds Reduced model biases of forecasts T, Td, wind speed, wind direction, ceiling and visibility MM 5 -V 3 -R 5. 3 Operational Implementation (added options for “unified-LSM” and improved polar physics) MM 5 3 DVAR Operational Implementation (state-of-the-art data assimilation system at front end of MM 5; replaced MVOI) As of: 14 Jun 04 Integrity - Service - Excellence

Historical NWP Environment: MM 5 • 2003 • • As of: 14 Jun 04 Linked to Defense Research and Engineering Network (DREN)—High bandwidth to use HPC centers Established Classified Modeling Capability (Operational in 2004) Established Visiting Scientist Position (assimilation) at JCSDA Completed Common High-performance S/W Support Initiative ($1. 5 M over 3 yrs—WRF and WRF 3 DVAR development) Integrity - Service - Excellence

Historical NWP Environment: MM 5 • 2003 • As of: 14 Jun 04 Collaborated with FNMOC to Establish Fine-Resolution MM 5 and COAMPS Windows for SWA Operations Integrity - Service - Excellence

Current NWP Environment: MM 5 • 2003 As of: 14 Jun 04 Integrity - Service - Excellence

Next NWP Environment: WRF • 2004 • Halted MM 5 Technology Enhancement Efforts for WRF - WRF is a Community Model Built in the Same Spirit as MM 5, but is Designed for Greater Expansion (numerics, physics, and initialization) WRF is Designed for Cloud Scale Phenomena (1 -10 km horiz. res. grids) that are not Explicitly Calculated and are not Currently Forecasted Well WRF Addresses Key Warfighter and National Security Effectiveness Issues Caused by Weather - - • As of: 14 Jun 04 Signed WRF National Concept of Operations Framework with NCEP and FNMOC Integrity - Service - Excellence

Next NWP Environment: WRF • 2004 • - Running WRF V 1. 2 /1. 3 Retrospective Tests at NAVO MSRC and AFWA (executing community WRF Tests) Several thousand runs; 7 regions; 8 physics configs >1000 test runs; SW Asia at 15 km; 18 physics configs Performance results being tabulated; subjective review positive • Do. D HPCMO funded $3 M Navy/AF Distributed Center (fields two platforms to conduct WRF operational tests) - Test multiple system configurations Determine configurations that best meet Do. D and service unique mesoscale NWP requirements Test operationally capable mesoscale ensemble runs Prototype and test Grid Computing concepts - As of: 14 Jun 04 Integrity - Service - Excellence

Next NWP Environment: WRF • 2004 As of: 14 Jun 04 Integrity - Service - Excellence

WRF Visualizations--Isabel 18 Sep 03/1500 Z AFWA WRF 15 km Model Run 20030918 00 Z Valid 18/1500 Z As of: 7 Jan 04 Integrity - Service - Excellence 31

Next NWP Environment: WRF • 2005 • WRF IOC: 1 April • Advanced Data Assimilation System Goals - Add direct radiance data assimilation to WRF-3 DVAR - Exploit emerging satellite data (MODIS, NPP, NPOESS, etc. ) - Improve utilization of existing data; incorporate nonconventional data; WRF-4 DVAR As of: 7 Jan 04 Integrity - Service - Excellence 32

Summary The Air Force has a solid position in NWP history and is well poised for the future. Since the inception of operational use, the Air Force has put and continues to put its emphasis on providing highest quality tailored weather products and decision aids for warfighting operations. As of: 7 Jan 04 Integrity - Service - Excellence 33

Questions? As of: 7 Jan 04 Integrity - Service - Excellence 34