Nuclear Renaissance and Nonproliferation in NorthEast Asia Hua

Nuclear Renaissance and Nonproliferation in North-East Asia Hua HAN Associate Professor School of International Affairs Beijing University

Nuclear Renaissance worldwide and East Asia • Relative good record of nuclear power in terms of safety and environment – roughly 440 commercial nuclear reactors operating in the globe, among them, 104 are operating in the US, and around 90 are in Northeast Asia – nuclear power was seen as a viable alternative for energy need by East Asian countries – approximately 40 nuclear power reactors are under construction around the world, China is one of the fastest nuclear power developers – the large number of reactors will be optional in the next few decades

Japan’s nuclear industry • After Japan's first commercial nuclear power plant began operation in 1966, Japan has fiftyfive reactors operating around the country with a total output of 49, 467 megawatts (MW). Nuclear power accounts for approximately one-third of the country's total electric power output. http: //www. japannuclear. com/nuclearpower/program/mitigation. html

South Korea • The total electrical generation capacity of the nuclear generators of South Korea is over 17. 5 GWe. This is 28. 5% of the generation capacity but supplies 45% of total electrical consumption, maintaining high capacity factors of over 95%.

China's Nuclear Power Industry • By the end of 2008, China had a total of installed nuclear power capacity at 8. 85 million KW accounting 1. 1% of china’s total installed power capacity • During 2002 -2007, the quantity of nuclear power Units in China has increased to 11 from 7 • According to the “Long and Medium-Term Planning for Nuclear Power Development, 2005 -2010”, the proportion of installed nuclear power capacity is expected to reach at 4% by 2020, and the nuclear power output is expected to reach about 260 -280 billion KWh by 2020 • During 2005 -2010, the CAGR of china’s installed nuclear power capacity is expected to maintain at 11. 9%, and the figure is expected to rise at 12. 8% during 2010 -2020

Wang Jianchen, Prospects for Spent Fuel Management of China in the Future

Driving forces behind East Asian renaissance – Poor in natural resources – Surging growth of energy demand – Dependence on imported oil and gas, and security of “oil line” – Oil price exposure – Climate change, reduce CO 2 emissions in particular

Climate change and nuclear renaissance • Implications of nuclear renaissance for nuclear safety and proliferation – Security of nuclear material • Spent fuel issue – Diversion of nuclear programs • Spent fuel issue • Japan’s Pu reprocessing – Leakage of Know-how in nuclear states to nonhaves – Terrorism and nuclear weapons

Katsuta T. and Suzuka T. , Multilateral Nuclear Fuel Cycle Approach in East Asia: Analysis of Past Proposals and Possible New Approaches including Japan.

Wang Jianchen, Prospects for Spent Fuel Management of China in the Future

Wang Jianchen, Prospects for Spent Fuel Management of China in the Future

Wang Jianchen, Prospects for Spent Fuel Management of China in the Future

China’s efforts on nonproliferation Means -- Technical efforts --institutional efforts --bilateral/multilateral cooperation Dimensions policy strategy

Technical efforts • Material protection – To introduce fast reactor (FR) and the associated closed fuel cycle will allow us to make full use of uranium resources and achieve the minimization of nuclear waste, thus ensure the sustainable development of nuclear energy – To establish commercial spent fuel processing facilities – Safety measures for safety of nuclear research and commercial reactors

Institutional efforts • Law/regulations – From administrative control to law control • Bureau in MFA and Department of Commerce – Arms control bureau in 1997 CACDA – Export control bureau in 1999(? ) (Export Control Commission of Expertise) • White papers

Bilateral/multilateral cooperation • Bilateral arrangements and discussions – China-US, including environmental cooperation – China-EU • Accessed to multilateral regimes – Except Wassenna arrangement and PSI, all major arms control regimes, including NSG and MTCR – Role: free rider to active player • More agenda-setter in near future • Rule/norms creating

East Asian cooperation for nuclear nonproliferation and security • Six-party talks • ARF framework • Still lack of regional cooperation

Way ahead for China -- Nonproliferation policy should be reshaped to cope with the emerging challenges, such as the new nuclear boom and climate changes • Nuclear disarmament ? • Other energy alternatives -- In East Asia, possible cooperation • Nuclear spent fuel – Fissile Material bank? • Asian Atomic Agency? • Technology transfer/assistance from high-tech states