NTHMP Warning Coordination Subcommittee Meeting February 1 2011
NTHMP Warning Coordination Subcommittee Meeting February 1, 2011 Pacific Tsunami Warning Center 2/26/11 Chile Tsunami Summary Charles Mc. Creery Director NOAA Pacific Tsunami Warning Center
PTWC Timeline Overview TIME (HST) EVENT 2/26 8: 34 PM Mw 8. 8 Earthquake Occurs in Chile
February 26, 2010 Mw 8. 8 Chile Earthquake
Aftershocks show Fault Dimensions From USGS 238 aftershocks as of 3/18/10
PTWC Timeline Overview TIME (HST) EVENT 2/26 8: 34 PM Mw 8. 8 Earthquake Occurs in Chile 8: 46 PM Chile-Peru put in Warning, Ecuador in Watch
February 26, 2010 Mw 8. 8 Chile Earthquake
PTWC Timeline Overview TIME (HST) EVENT 2/26 8: 34 PM Mw 8. 8 Earthquake Occurs in Chile 8: 46 PM Chile-Peru put in Warning, Ecuador in Watch 8: 49 PM Hawaii put in Advisory* Status *Advisory under former definition was heads-up
Historical Tsunamigenic Earthquakes
Historical Chile Tsunami Impacts in Hawaii YEAR PLACE MAG MAXIMUM HAWAII RUNUP 1819 N. Chile 8. 5 2 m = 6. 5 ft 1837 S. Chile 8. 5 6 m = 19. 7 ft 1868 N. Chile 8. 5 4. 5 m = 14. 7 ft 1877 N. Chile 8. 3 4. 8 m = 15. 7 ft 1906 C. Chile 8. 2 3. 5 m = 11. 5 ft 1922 N. Chile 8. 5 2. 1 m = 6. 9 ft 1960 C. Chile 9. 5 10. 7 m = 35. 1 ft
Initial Sea Level Readings GAUGE TIME (HST) Max Amplitude* Talcahuano 8: 53 PM 7. 7 ft, then failed Valparaiso 9: 08 PM 4. 2 ft San Antonio 9: 39 PM ETA failed Corral 9: 39 PM 2. 9 ft Juan Fernandez 9: 49 PM failed San Felix 10: 15 PM 1. 7 ft Coquimbo 10: 52 PM 4. 3 ft Iquique 11: 06 PM 0. 9 ft Antofagasta 11: 41 PM 1. 6 ft DART 32412 11: 41 PM 0. 8 ft Arica 12: 07 AM 3. 1 ft * Measured center-to-peak or half crest-to-trough
SIFT Model - Maximum Amplitudes
Initial Forecast Model Guidance for Hawaii PLACE SIFT 10: 31 P RIFT 11: 18 P ATFM 11: 24 P SIFT w/1 -DART 12: 33 A Hilo 2. 6 m 1. 9 m 4. 1 m Kawaihae 0. 8 m 1. 6 m 1. 3 m 1. 2 m Kahului 2. 4 m 1. 0 m 2. 5 m 2. 9 m Honolulu 0. 5 m 1. 2 m 0. 3 m 0. 9 m Haleiwa 0. 6 m 1. 1 m 0. 5 m 1. 1 m Nawili 0. 6 m 1. 4 m 1. 1 m 0. 9 m All values are crest-to-trough or double-amplitude in meters
PTWC Timeline Overview TIME (HST) EVENT 2/26 8: 34 PM Mw 8. 8 Earthquake Occurs in Chile 8: 46 PM Chile-Peru put in Warning, Ecuador in Watch 8: 49 PM Hawaii put in Advisory Status 2/27 12: 45 AM Entire Pacific put in Warning Status 12: 46 AM Hawaii put in Warning Status 11: 15 AM 1: 38 PM 2: 12 PM 11: 40 PM
Additional Sea Level Readings GAUGE TIME (HST) Max Amplitude* DART 51404 5: 31 AM 0. 4 m Hiva Oa 7: 45 AM 3. 6 m Nuku Hiva 7: 41 AM 1. 9 m Cabo San Lucas 8: 33 AM 0. 7 m * Measured crest-to-trough or double-amplitude in meters
Further Forecast Model Guidance for Hawaii PLACE SIFT w/1 -DART 1: 38 A SIFT w/1 -DART 4: 30 A ATFM w/1 -DART 5: 10 P SIFT w/2 -DART 5: 50 A Hilo 2. 1 m 2. 4 m 3. 6 m 2. 5 m Kawaihae - 0. 7 m 2. 4 m 0. 6 m Kahului 2. 2 m - 4. 8 m 2. 2 m Honolulu 0. 7 m 0. 4 m 1. 2 m 0. 5 m Haleiwa - 0. 8 m 1. 0 m 0. 5 m Nawili - 0. 4 m 2. 2 m 0. 4 m All values are crest-to-trough or double-amplitude in meters
PTWC Timeline Overview TIME (HST) EVENT 2/26 8: 34 PM Mw 8. 8 Earthquake Occurs in Chile 8: 46 PM Chile-Peru put in Warning, Ecuador in Watch 8: 49 PM Hawaii put in Advisory Status 2/27 12: 45 AM Entire Pacific put in Warning Status 12: 46 AM Hawaii put in Warning Status 11: 15 AM Tsunami Begins Impacting Hawaii
Tsunami Observations in Hawaii PLACE Range of Forecasts Observed Hilo 1. 6 - 3. 6 m 1. 7 m Kawaihae 0. 7 - 2. 4 m 1. 0 m Kahului 1. 0 - 4. 8 m 2. 0 m Honolulu 0. 3 - 1. 2 m 0. 5 m Haleiwa 0. 5 – 1. 1 m 0. 8 m Nawili 0. 4 – 1. 4 m 0. 7 m All values are crest-to-trough or double-amplitude in meters
PTWC Timeline Overview TIME (HST) EVENT 2/26 8: 34 PM Mw 8. 8 Earthquake Occurs in Chile 8: 46 PM Chile-Peru put in Warning, Ecuador in Watch 8: 49 PM Hawaii put in Advisory Status 2/27 12: 45 AM Entire Pacific put in Warning Status 12: 46 AM Hawaii put in Warning Status 11: 15 AM Tsunami Begins Impacting Hawaii 1: 38 PM Hawaii Warning Cancelled 2: 12 PM Pacific Cancelled except Japan / Russia
February 26, 2010 Mw 8. 8 Chile Earthquake
SIFT Model - Maximum Amplitudes
PTWC Timeline Overview TIME (HST) EVENT 2/26 8: 34 PM Mw 8. 8 Earthquake Occurs in Chile 8: 46 PM Chile-Peru put in Warning, Ecuador in Watch 8: 49 PM Hawaii put in Advisory Status 2/27 12: 45 AM Entire Pacific put in Warning Status 12: 46 AM Hawaii put in Warning Status 11: 15 AM Tsunami Begins Impacting Hawaii 1: 38 PM Hawaii Warning Cancelled 2: 12 PM Pacific Cancelled except Japan / Russia 11: 40 PM Warning for Japan / Russia Cancelled
NTHMP Warning Coordination Subcommittee Meeting February 1, 2011 Thank You
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