NOTABLE HISTORIC AND FUTURE THREATENING EVENTS ALONG THE

NOTABLE HISTORIC AND FUTURE THREATENING EVENTS ALONG THE PACIFIC RING OF FIRE As of April 21, 2012 Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, University of North Carolina, USA

RING OF FIRE

1, 000 ACTIVE VOLCANOES ALONG THE RING OF FIRE

MANY HISTORIC EARTHQUAKES ALONG THE RING OF FIRE

SOME OF THE HISTORIC EVENTS ALONG THE RING OF FIRE

NOTABLE HISTORIC EVENTS ALONG THE RING OF FIRE • THE PHILIPPINES: MOUNT PINATUBO • USA: NORTHRIDGE, CA EARTHQUAKE • CHRISTCHURCH, NEW ZEALAND: EARTHQUAKES • SENDAI, JAPAN: EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI • CHILE: VOLCANO PUYEUHE

THE PHILIPPINES: MT. PINATUBO: JUNE 15, 1991

Pinatubo was the second largest eruption of the 20 th century and the largest to impact a densely populated area.

NORTHRIDGE, CALIFORNIA EARTHQUAKE 4: 31 AM ON JANUARY 17, 1994 M 6. 8

NORTHRIDGE EARTHQUAKE • 57 DEATHS • 9, 000 INJURIES • OVER $50 BILLION DAMAGE • TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS FAILED

CHRISTCHURCH, NEW ZEALAND: SEPT 2010 & FEB 2011 EARTHQUAKES

TWO EARTHQUAKES SEVERELY CUT NEW ZEALAND’S 2011 ECONOMIC GROWTH A DEEP (33 KM) M 7. 1 AND A SHALLOW (4 KM) M 6. 3 QUAKE SIX MONTHS APART COMBINE TO HALF NEW ZEALAND’S ECONOMIC GROWTH

M 9. 0 TOHOKU EARTHQUAKE/TSUNAMI IMPACTED JAPAN WITH THE TSUNAMI WAVES REACHING PACIFIC RIM COUNTRIES 4 TH LARGEST QUAKE EVER – 40 M TSUNAMI WAVES 2: 46 pm MARCH 11, 2011 3

JAPAN: TSUNAMI FOLLOWING M 9. 0 EARTHQUAKE

CHILE’S VOLCANO PUYEHUE ERUPTED WITH A MASSIVE ASH CLOUD AND SPECTACULAR LIGHTNING JUNE 4, 2011

VOLCANO PUYEHUE’S ASH CLOUD: JUNE 4, 2011

PUYEHUE’S ASH CLOUD § The ash cloud over the Southern Hemisphere has impacted Argentina and spread as far as South Africa and Australia.

PUYEHUE’S ASH CLOUD § The ash cloud over the Southern Hemisphere impacted Argentina and spread as far as South Africa and Australia.

NOTABLE HISTORIC EVENTS ALONG THE RING OF FIRE • CHILE: EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI • COLOMBIA: NEVADA DEL RUIZ

M 8. 8 EARTHQUAKE STRIKES CENTRAL CHILE: 3: 34 am on February 27, 2010 Subduction Zone Quake 500 Times More Energy than the M 7. 0 Haiti Quake 800+ Deaths; 500+ Injured Numerous Aftershocks Tsunami Waves Travel Across Pacific Estimated Loss: $30 Billion

The Chilean people had to cope with the demands associated with: 1) a mega-quake, 2) a vigorous aftershock sequence with large events, 3) tsunami wave run up, 4) looting of the affluent sector, and 5) recovery after the loss of 15 percent of the GDP.

It was a catastrophic experience, even though Chile has experienced many past earthquakes, has implemented a modern building code, and was well prepared to respond to all aspects of the emergency.

COLOMBIA: NEVADA DEL RUIZ, A 1988 DISASTER

The lahar generated by the eruption of Nevada del Ruiz buried 25, 000 people in the city of Armero as they slept.

SOME OF THE THREATENING EVENTS ALONG THE RING OF FIRE

THREATENING EVENTS ALONG THE RING OF FIRE • JAPAN: MOUNT FUJI • JAPAN: TOKAI EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI • USA: NORTHERN CALIFORNIA • USA: SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA • USA: CASCADIA SUBDUCTION ZONE

MOUNT FUJI: JAPAN; A THREAT TO TOKYO

NORTHERN CALIFORNIA EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO • Because of its location in the densely populated Bay area of 7 million people, an earthquake on the Hayward fault could be one of the USA's worst natural disasters.

HAYWARD FAULT ZONE

A HAYWARD FAULT SCENARIO • A Hayward fault earthquake potentially affects 5 million people, and damages homes, schools, senior centers, hospitals, businesses, the Bay bridge, and the campus of UC Berkeley.

IMPACTS: SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA • A M 7. 0 earthquake on the Hayward fault will cause an estimated $210 billion dollars in damage. • The region's transportation infrastructure and water delivery systems will take a major hit.

THE GREAT TOKAI EARTHQUAKE POSSIBLY THE WORLD’S FOREMOST IMPENDING EARTHQUAKE DISASTER FOR WHICH JAPAN HAS BEEN PREPARING FOR 25 YEARS

REGIONAL MAP

TOKAI EARTHQUAKE • The Government of Japan expects its next great earthquake to be “the Tokai Earthquake. ”

TOKAI EARTHQUAKE • Estimated deaths — between 7, 900 and 9, 200 depending on the amount of advance warning and the time of day it occurs. • Estimated property damage –as much as $310 billion.

TOKAI EARTHQUAKE • Landslides -- 6, 449 specific locations • Structures susceptible to quake -related fires – 58, 402 specific houses

SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA (LOS ANGELES AREA) EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO

SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AREA

POTENTIAL IMPACTS • The magnitude 7. 8 scenario earthquake will cause about 1, 800 deaths and $213 billion of economic losses.

CASCADIA SUBDUCTION ZONE

CASCADIA SUDUCTION ZONE

SEATTLE, WASHINGTON

CASCADIA SUBDUCTION ZONE • The Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ), which extends from Vancouver Island to Cape Mendiceno, is capable of producing earthquakes of M 8 to M 9 and a destructive tsunami if the M > 8. 0.

A M 9. 0 CSZ EARTHQUAKE • Long-period waves will dominate the ground shaking of a M 9. 0 CSZ earthquake. • Long-period ground shaking is very efficient in exciting tall buildings, long bridges, and long pipelines into vibration.

THREATENING EVENTS ALONG THE RING OF FIRE • • • MEXICO: POPOCATEPETL USA: MOUNT RAINIER ECUADOR: SANGAY VANUATU: MOUNT YASUR GUATEMALA: SANTA MARIA

MEXICO’S POPOCATEPETL: APRIL 20

An estimated 5 million people in the states of Mexico, Puebla, and Morelos would be affected by a major eruption of the 17, 778 ft Popocatepetl

MT RAINIER: TACOMA, WA

Tacoma, the capital city is at high risk when Rainier erupts

SANGAY, ECUADOR

Sangay’s steep-sided volcanic cone, which reaches a height of 17, 158 feet (5, 230 meters), has been characterized by: 1) a historical eruption in 1628, 2) more or less continuous eruptions from 1728 until 1916, and 3) continuous eruptions again from 1934 to the present.

MOUNT YASUR, VANUATU

Mount Yasur, an active volcano on Tanna Island a part of the archipelago nation of Vanuatu in the South Pacific, has been erupting nearly continuously for over a century with strombolian- type eruptionsk, often occurring several times an hour.

SANTA MARIA, GUATEMALA

Santa Maria, a 12, 375 -foot (3, 772 meter) tall stratovolcano, had a catastrophic eruption in 1902, one of the largest eruptions of the 20 th century, that caused severe damage throughout southwestern Guatemala

SO--IT’S STILL ABOUT THE ART AND SCIENCE OF MAKING ALL CIRCUM-PACIFIC COMMUNITIES RESILIENT TO EARTHQUAKES AND VOLCANOES

MAKING THE RING OF FIRE’S FUTURE BETTER THAN ITS PAST PERIOD OF INTEGRATION 1988 -2012 WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY 2012 PERIOD OF IMPLEMENTATION NOW HEAR UNDERSTAND IDENTIFY PERSONALIZE ACT