NOT PROTECTIVELY MARKED Stage Two Assess Threat and

Stage Two Assess Threat and Risk and Develop a Working Strategy © College of

What is a Threat? ‘Threat may be summarised as the source of actual or

The Purpose of a Threat Assessment The purpose of a threat assessment is to

Threat Assessment • Who feeds it? • Do we use SAG to oversee threat

Threat Assessment The threat posed can be viewed in these terms: Identification • Identification

What is a Risk? • Risk refers to the possibility of harm occurring, and

IMPACT Catastrophic 5 M H VH VH VH Significant 4 M H VH VH

What is a Strategy? ‘The overall intention of managing and resolving a police operation.

The Purpose of a Strategy The purpose of a strategy is to establish a

The Strategy should……. • Be unique for each incident • Avoid generic strategies •

The Strategy should…… • Give careful consideration to the potential liabilities that may be

The Strategy should include: • Create ‘headline’ strategic intentions which reflect the role of

Examples of Strategic Intentions • To provide a lawful and proportionate policing response •

Questions © College of Policing Limited 2012 Version 1. 0 11/5/2020 NOT PROTECTIVELY MARKED

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NOT PROTECTIVELY MARKED Stage Two Assess Threat and Risk • Gold Public Order Commander © College of Policing Limited 2012 Version 1. 0 11/5/2020 NOT PROTECTIVELY MARKED 4. 4

Stage Two Assess Threat and Risk and Develop a Working Strategy © College of Policing Limited 2012 Version 1. 0 11/5/2020 • • What are our priorities? Probability Seriousness Imminence Police only problem Control measures Hierarchical mitigation NOT PROTECTIVELY MARKED 2

What is a Threat? ‘Threat may be summarised as the source of actual or potential harm (i. e. anything that can cause harm)’ ACPO (2010) Manual of Guidance on Keeping the Peace © College of Policing Limited 2012 Version 1. 0 11/5/2020 NOT PROTECTIVELY MARKED 3

The Purpose of a Threat Assessment The purpose of a threat assessment is to provide commanders with clarification of: • What is known • The likely threats • The police responsibility for mitigation. A threat assessment informs the proportionality of the police response © College of Policing Limited 2012 Version 1. 0 11/5/2020 NOT PROTECTIVELY MARKED 4

Threat Assessment • Who feeds it? • Do we use SAG to oversee threat assessment? • No one nationally agreed model Officers are expected to exercise professional judgement ACPO (2010) Manual of Guidance on Keeping the Peace © College of Policing Limited 2012 Version 1. 0 11/5/2020 NOT PROTECTIVELY MARKED 5

Threat Assessment The threat posed can be viewed in these terms: Identification • Identification (of the individuals) • Intent (to cause harm) Capability • Capability (to cause harm) and our ability to determine accurately. Intent Also identified should be the required: • Immediacy of response necessary. © College of Policing Limited 2012 Version 1. 0 11/5/2020 NOT PROTECTIVELY MARKED 6

What is a Risk? • Risk refers to the possibility of harm occurring, and has been widely accepted as the measurement of both likelihood and impact of an event which could cause harm • Impact x Likelihood = Risk ACPO (2010) Manual of Guidance on Keeping the Peace © College of Policing Limited 2012 Version 1. 0 11/5/2020 NOT PROTECTIVELY MARKED 7

IMPACT Catastrophic 5 M H VH VH VH Significant 4 M H VH VH VH Moderate 3 M M H H H Minor 2 L L M M M Insignificant 1 L L L Negligible 1 Rare 2 Unlikely 3 Possible 4 Probable 5 LIKELIHOOD © College of Policing Limited 2012 Version 1. 0 11/5/2020 NOT PROTECTIVELY MARKED 8

What is a Strategy? ‘The overall intention of managing and resolving a police operation. ’ ACPO (2010) Manual of Guidance on Keeping the Peace © College of Policing Limited 2012 Version 1. 0 11/5/2020 NOT PROTECTIVELY MARKED 9

The Purpose of a Strategy The purpose of a strategy is to establish a set of objectives relevant to the knowledge of the situation and the analysis of the threats and risks presented. ACPO (2010) Manual of Guidance on Keeping the Peace © College of Policing Limited 2012 Version 1. 0 11/5/2020 NOT PROTECTIVELY MARKED 10

The Strategy should……. • Be unique for each incident • Avoid generic strategies • Be communicated to all personnel employed on an event • Be written in plain language to avoid confusion • Be recorded as part of the audit trail with the rationale. © College of Policing Limited 2012 Version 1. 0 11/5/2020 NOT PROTECTIVELY MARKED 11

The Strategy should…… • Give careful consideration to the potential liabilities that may be incurred before defining strategic intentions that assume roles for which the police may have no responsibility • Be regularly reviewed, particularly where a change/handover of command occurs • Include event specific operational matters or constraints, if Gold considers that they are relevant to the strategy intentions © College of Policing Limited 2012 Version 1. 0 11/5/2020 NOT PROTECTIVELY MARKED 12

The Strategy should include: • Create ‘headline’ strategic intentions which reflect the role of the police, local strategic objectives and set the tone (policing style) • Should identify anticipated outcomes • Partners • Include narratives to explain each intention. © College of Policing Limited 2012 Version 1. 0 11/5/2020 NOT PROTECTIVELY MARKED 13

Examples of Strategic Intentions • To provide a lawful and proportionate policing response • To maintain public order • To prevent crime and provide a reasonable and proportionate response if crime is committed • To work together with event organisers / participants and other agencies to minimise criminal activity and anti-social behaviour associated with the event • To provide an appropriate counter-terrorism response and security advice, commensurate to the threat level © College of Policing Limited 2012 Version 1. 0 11/5/2020 NOT PROTECTIVELY MARKED 14